I’m not going to sit here and tell you that Florida will beat Texas this weekend. The Longhorns are a sizable favorite for a reason.
They’ve got a fantastic defense, one of the nation’s true elite despite bringing in a random unknown new defensive coordinator named “Will Muschamp”. The Gators have struggled to score against a pair of less-talented-than-Texas units the last two games, and South Carolina in particular has been nowhere near the Longhorns’ level in most of their games. UF will have to improve drastically just to be able to score more than about ten points offensively.
That said, the ‘Horns are far from bulletproof. They just lost a game last weekend while allowing ten true offensive points to Oklahoma. The Sooners’ other 17 points came from non-offensive scores and a turnover-shortened field. And even then, OU’s longest drive was a mere 52 yards for a field goal. Their touchdown drive was 48 yards, and they missed a field goal after a 40-yard series. They couldn’t break 240 yards in the game and still won.
Of course, Oklahoma was in position to win because Brent Venables has built a terrific defense. There are a lot of words I could use to describe Florida’s defensive performance this year, but terrific is not one of them. Well, except maybe in the word’s tertiary and increasingly archaic meaning of “inspiring terror”, but it’s not opposing offenses feeling that effect.
UF’s defense did a number on the Longhorns a year ago, and the burnt orange has not been that great on offense other than in routing Texas State. They only got to 30 on UTSA, and that’s their one time getting out of the 20s since the opener. Arch Manning is almost exactly average nationally in passing efficiency, and their run game has been mediocre at best despite them spending a lot of money on running back and O-line transfers. If the Gators can stop being an old-timey “cures what ails ya” tonic for offenses, Texas could get in its own way enough to not run away with this thing.
Still though, Florida will need something special to overcome the talent gap in the contest. The good news is there is a very obvious and reasonable answer to what that would be: special teams.
For the first time since 2010, the Gators are helmed by a head coach who cares deeply about special teams. After years of tear-your-hair-out follies under Billy Napier and Dan Mullen doing his best to opt out of the third phase of the game as much as possible, Jon Sumrall has put a real emphasis on it that has shown up big.
Getting Vernell Brown III back would be huge for the offense, but it’d also be big for special teams. The defense hasn’t been forcing many punts lately, but if it could force some with Brown back to receive, there would be some opportunities for flipping the field.
Ditto with kickoff returner London Montgomery presumably feeling better. He did not appear on the injury report this week after being listed as questionable last week. He still returned a couple against the Gamecocks, but healthier Montgomery was a big factor in the win over Ole Miss.
As much as anything, the special teams execution has been good. They haven’t struggled to count to 11, no one is running on late, and no obvious assignments are being blown. There have been more penalties than you’d like, but that’s true for every phase of the game.
It could matter that UF is so good on special teams because, despite all that talent in Austin, the Longhorns have been terrible in this phase in 2026.
One of those non-offensive scores they allowed to Oklahoma was a blocked punt that the Sooners recovered in the end zone. It wasn’t some lucky graze of the finger. Three crimson jerseys were arriving at the punter about all at once. That came a week after they gave up a 57-yard punt return touchdown to Tennessee.
But wait, there’s more. Even the basics can be in question at times because the ‘Horns have put a kickoff out of bounds each of the past two weeks. Penalties have wiped out good returns by their primary punt returner, and that punt returner himself wiped out a good return by someone else because he simulated a fair catch. They also couldn’t recover an onside kick late against the other UT, giving the Vols some life late.
Florida’s going to need to find a lot of hidden yardage in the couch cushions of the special teams phase of the game, but the Gators have the pieces to do it. If VB3 can go and be even 80% of his normal self, he might be able to pull off a good punt return or two in order to help an offense that’s likely to struggle to score no matter who is behind center.
I know the odds, like the horns, are long, but if Florida does come up with a win on Saturday, special teams is going to be a major reason why.