No.22 Florida (3-1, 1-0 SEC) is set to take on Kentucky (4-0, 1-0 SEC) at Kroger Field in Lexington during week five. This SEC East matchup is critical for both teams in terms of establishing momentum as we inch closer to the halfway point of the 2023 season.
Gator Country provides you with a scouting report on the 2023 Kentucky Wildcats.
OFFENSE
The Wildcats’ offensive numbers are somewhat unique as they rank 9th in the SEC in total offense, 12th in rushing offense, 8th in passing offense, but 5th in scoring offense. Kentucky is averaging 38 points a game through four games, which ranks 25th in the FBS. The highest ranked defense Kentucky has played to this point in the season is Akron, who ranks 46th in total defense. The only P5 team the Wildcats have played is Vanderbilt, who sits at 91st in total defense through four games. It’s safe to say that Kentucky’s offense has not seen a defense as talented as Florida’s to this point.
I would consider Kentucky’s offense ‘boom or bust’. The Wildcats average 5.51 plays per drive, which ranks 11th in the SEC. However, Kentucky leads the SEC in points per play, indicating that the Wildcats can strike quickly. Furthermore, Kentucky has four receivers that have recorded a catch of 50+ yards and six receivers that have recorded a catch of 30+ yards. On the ground, Kentucky has four players with rushes over 25 yards, three with a run over 35 yards, and two with a run over 40 yards.
Kentucky also has the lowest number of drives that have entered the redzone and the highest turnover percentage in the SEC.
Transfer QB Devin Leary has been inaccurate at times throughout the season, completing 59.3% of his passes while tossing five interceptions in four games. Big Blue Nation has blamed these mishaps on Kentucky’s offensive line, but Leary has tossed three interceptions with a clean pocket and no blitzes, according to Pro Football Focus. Leary also throws an uncatchable ball 23.58% of the time, which is the 4th highest mark among starting SEC QBs, according to SEC Stat Cat. Under pressure, Leary is completing just 36.4 percent of his passes and has tossed two interceptions.
Offensive coordinator Liam Coen and QB Devin Leary are going to distribute the ball pretty evenly to all parts of the field while mixing in their fair share of play actions and screen passes.
Kentucky has a talented trio of wide receivers including senior Tayvion Robinson, who grades as a top ten receiver through four weeks, according to PFF. Also in the room is sophomores Barion Brown and Dane Key, who contributed a ton as true freshmen in 2022. Key scored a critical 55-yard TD against the Gators a year ago. The Wildcats have explosive play makers at wide receiver that can beat you in many different ways.
Running back Ray Davis will take the bulk of the carries for the Wildcats on Saturday night. Davis can create an explosive play at any moment, ranking second in the SEC in Big Run Rate (20+yards) at 10.20% of his carries.
Davis has broken 18 tackles this season for a broken tackle rate of 36.73%, which ranks 7th in the SEC. Kentucky’s offensive line is paving the way for an average of 3.08 yards before contact for the 5-10, 216 pound back, which is the 4th most in the SEC. Davis is also averaged 3.33 yards after contact, which ranks in the middle of the road for SEC backs.
The key for the Gators’ defense will be to limit Kentucky from creating the explosive play. Every skill player on Kentucky’s offense is capable of creating an explosive play, whether they do that with consistency or not will be the determining factor in this game.
DEFENSE
Kentucky’s defense ranks 20th in total defense, 61st in passing defense, 9th in rushing defense, and 20th in scoring defense in 2023.
The strength of the Wildcat defense is a pair of lockdown corners in Maxwell Hairston and Andru Phillips as both corners grade within PFF’s top 20 cornerbacks through four games.
Hairston has allowed 12 receptions for 100 yards on 25 targets while recording a pass break up, three interceptions, and four forced incompletions, according to PFF. Hairston is holding opposing QBs to an NFL passer rating of just 19.2, which is a staggering figure.
Phillips has allowed 11 receptions for 86 yards on 20 targets while recording two pass break ups and two forced incompletions. The CB duo has combined for just one missed tackle on the 2023 season.
Kentucky has totaled eight forced turnovers in 2023 for an average of two a game, which ranks T-20th in the FBS. The Wildcats have generated four interceptions and four fumble recoveries.
Tackling has been an area of concern for Kentucky as they’ve missed 41 tackles through four games, generating a tackling grade of 66.8, which ranks 68th in the FBS.
Another weakness is Kentucky’s third down defense, which ranks 105th nationally at a conversion rate of .450%.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Kentucky’s kicker Alex Raynor is a perfect 4-4 on field goal attempts with three of the four coming from over 40 yards. He is also 20-20 on extra points.
Return man Barrion Brown is a dangerous weapon for the Wildcats’ special team unit. Brown has two punt returns for a combined 47 yards and five kick returns for a combined 166 yards, which includes a 99-yard return for a touchdown.
Kentucky ranks 27th nationally in punt return average (13.40 yards) and T-6th in kick return average (30 yards).