No.22 Florida (3-1, 1-0 SEC) is traveling to Kentucky (4-0, 1-0 SECi) n week five of the 2023 regular season in hopes of ending the Wildcats’ two game winning streak over the Gators.
Gator Country previews this SEC East matchup by providing you with our roundtable discussion.
What are the keys for the Gators’ offense against Kentucky?
AS: I feel like a broken record when I say running the ball for this team is the key. Kentucky is only allowing 77 yards per game on the ground and if the Gators are going to be successful they will have to go over that number. The offense can’t allow Kentucky to make them a one dimensional team.
NM: Kentucky is very solid against the run, so the Gators will try to get the ball in the hands of their best receivers Eugene Wilson and Ricky Pearsall. If the Gators want to be successful on offense, they will need to create chunk plays with these two playmakers. I expect stoops to sell-out to stop the run, much like he did in 2022.
GH: The offensive line needs to perform the way they did against Tennessee. Establish the run game to set up the passing game. We’ve seen how well this offense plays together when the run game is established. Kentucky’s third down defense has struggled through four weeks, but they rank fourth in the SEC in red zone defense. While the Gators didn’t do a good job of converting last weekend overall, establishing the run game behind an improved offensive line should help this team in that area. However, it could be a challenge to get that going against a Kentucky defense that allows only 77.5 rushing yards a game and has eight takeaways this season.
What are the keys for the Gators’ defense against Kentucky?
AS: Kentucky is gaining close to 400 yards on offense a game with 131 of that through the air so stopping the run and winning the line of scrimmage is key. The Gators did a good job of getting to the passer again Tennessee and the Gators will need to do that against Devin Leary. Leary doesn’t like to run a lot so that’s something that should help the defensive front.
NM: They key for the Gators’ defense will be to limit the explosive plays. Kentucky is more of a ‘boom or bust’ offense, and if the Gators can stop the chunk play, they should limit the Wildcats offensively. Tackling well in open space and not letting the dangerous trio of Kentucky receivers behind the secondary will be key.
GH: Kentucky has several problems offensively that the Gators need to take advantage of. When pressured, Devin Leary’s completion percentage drops from 65% to 37%, with an EPA rate of 46.7% against the blitz. Kentucky also ranks 13th in the SEC in penalties and has given up 16 tackles for loss. On average, the team has been penalized eight times a game. Florida’s defense can shut down Devin Leary and Kentucky’s offense if they capitalize on those issues this weekend.
Who would you like to see get more snaps in week five?
AS: I’m going to go back with Andy Jean, even though Tre Wilson is back this weekend, he likely won’t be 100% or be able to play the full amount of snaps as usual so seeing Jean get some of Wilson’s usual touches is something I want to see. Jean is has some serious speed as well and he has the abilities to make plays.
NM: I’m going with freshman edge rusher Kelby Collins. The Alabama native’s defensive grade of 78.7 ranks third on the Gators defense, according to Pro Football Focus. Collins recorded his first career sack a week ago against Charlotte. Collins has been a difference maker on the field in just 62 snaps.
GH: I’d like to see safety Bryce Thornton get more snaps this weekend. I think Thornton is a player with extreme upside that can continue to elevate this safety unit as a backup. The freshman is extremely intelligent when it comes to understanding the game. Thornton has registered six total tackles, 1.5 TFL and half a sack through four games.
Florida has a two-game losing streak over the Wildcats. What do the Gators have to do in Lexington to pull out a victory. Give us some keys to victory.
AS: Play their game and not worry about Kentucky. I know that’s easy to say but the Gators need to just run the ball and play good defense like they have the last three weeks. Florida’s defense is good enough to stop Kentucky and the Gators running game is good enough to set the tone and allow Graham Mertz time to throw.
NM: The Gators need to jump out to an early lead and put the pressure on Devin Leary and the offensive line. Leary has been inaccurate at times this season, and the Gators’ defense needs to capitalize on that by creating turnovers and giving Florida’s offense good field position. Win the turnover battle.
GH: Take care of the football and limit the penalties. The Gators had a hard time converting on third down against Charlotte and that can’t happen Saturday in Lexington. Defensively, the front four and players like Princely Umanmielen will need to have one of their best performances and continue to create turnovers. Kentucky’s offense has struggled this season against inferior opponents, giving Florida’s pass rush a chance to make a legit statement. This Kentucky team will also heavily rely on running back Ray Davis. The interior linemen and Florida’s run defense can’t afford to take a step back against a player who ranks fourth in the SEC in rushing.
Kentucky is currently a one point favorite over the Gators. How do you see this game going and what’s your score prediction.
AS: Florida 24-13 is my pick. The Gators are the better team and when Kingsley is in the game, the offensive line is different and they will help lead this offense.
NM: I’m taking Florida in a low scoring, tight game. I think both offenses will struggle to move the football, but Florida’s defense is going to win them this game. 17-14 Florida.
GH: Kentucky has struggled on the line this year and I think the Gators give them a hard time defensively, especially off the edge and inside. On the offensive line, getting back players like Kingsley Eguakun and Micah Mazzccua is huge news in terms of run production. It will be tough, but I see the Gators winning this one 27-20 behind a great performance in the trenches.