The Florida Gators are fresh off their bye week entering week nine of the college football season. The break came at the right time for Florida. The Gators were gashed for 45 points at home against LSU in week seven, which was likely the worst defensive performance of the season.
Unfortunately for Florida, the task doesn’t get any easier. The Gators are set to clash with the #1 ranked Georgia Bulldogs in Jacksonville this Saturday. Georgia boasts the #2 total offense in the country, trailing only Tennessee. The Bulldogs are just as good on the other side of the football, ranking #4 in total defense.
Kirby Smart’s had his way with the Gators, holding a 4-2 record against Florida since his debut as head coach in Athens. There’s only been one 1 score game in this matchup since 2016, when Georgia defeated Florida 24-17. The Gators currently sit as +22.5-point underdogs against the Dawgs.
I like Florida to cover the spread this Saturday. Billy Napier doesn’t get blown out of games too often, and I don’t see it happening in week nine. Although this Georgia team is extremely talented, I don’t believe they are on the same level as last year’s National Champions.
There’s a lot the Gators need to achieve to keep this game competitive. Before I jump into specifics, it’s clear to me that Florida will need to play their best game defensively if they want to pull off an upset. There are mismatches that the Gators have had two weeks to prepare for.
Even a sound performance from Florida’s defense is going to give up points to the #2 ranked offense in college football; the Gators’ offense needs to continue to dominate along the offensive line and find the endzone multiple times this Saturday.
Gator Country provides you with the major keys to victory for the Gators.
TE vs LB MATCHUP
This is a specific key, but one that I think could decide the outcome of this game early on. Georgia has two of the best TE’s in college football on their roster in Darnell Washington and Brock Bowers. These two are versatile and can beat you in different ways; Bowers is more of a receiving threat, but if you take your eyes off Washington, he can and will beat you. Tight ends are the strength of this Georgia team; you can bet on the Bulldogs testing Florida early on.
Gator LBs have struggled in pass defense this season. The Utah Utes had a pair of TEs in Dalton Kincaid and Brant Kuithe that have similar skill sets to the two we will see this Saturday. The Utes TEs went for a combined 11 catches for 134 yards and a touchdown. The good news is the Gators have seen very talented TE’s this year and should know what to expect; they’ve also had two weeks to prepare. Brock Bowers went for just one catch for 38 yards last year against Florida.
I don’t think it’s reasonable to ask Patrick Toney and the Gators to shut these two out. However, Florida needs to get creative with their play calls and limit these two if they want a chance to win.
TAKE CARE OF THE FOOTBALL
I could hit copy and paste on this key every week, but I think it’s crucial in this game; You can’t give the #1 team in the nation freebies. Georgia isn’t going to be sloppy with the football; they’ve totaled just five turnovers this season, which is the fewest in the SEC. This puts the pressure on Anthony Richardson and this offense to take care of the football. Florida’s turned the ball over ten times but is coming off the only game where they posted a zero in the turnover column. It’s already hard to beat the best team in the country, it’s even harder if you lose the turnover battle.
3RD DOWNS
Florida ranks 130th in FBS in 3rd down conversion rate defensively, only leading Colorado. Georgia is one of the best teams on 3rd downs offensively, ranking 9th in FBS. 3rd down defense can make or break your unit, it has broken the Gators in 2022. The Gators’ defense ranks middle of the road in many of the advanced statistics this season, but the lack of pressure and aggression on 3rd down is severely weighing down this defense. Getting pressure on Stetson Bennett is the key here. You have to make Bennett beat you, you can’t make it easy for him.
The Gators will need to play their best football game of the 2022 season if they want to take down the top team in the country.
Florida Gators vs Georgia Bulldogs 3:30p.m on CBS.