With fall camp officially over, it’s time for me to predict Florida’s 2026 record. The Gators will start the season unranked, but they received 51 votes — the 27th-most in the preseason AP Poll.
Florida has plenty of talent on both sides of the ball, but there are big question marks at quarterback and along the offensive line, which tempers my expectations a bit in Year 1.
MY PREDICTION: Florida will go 8-4 (5-4 SEC) in the 2026 season.
Let’s take a look at my game-by-game predictions.
Week 1 vs. FAU: Win
Florida opens the 2026 season with a win over FAU. The Owls were dreadful last year, finishing 4-8 with one of the worst defenses in college football. They should be slightly improved in Year 2 under Zach Kittley after adding a number of transfers on both sides of the ball.
FAU has an experienced and productive quarterback and a returning 1,000-yard receiver. The Owls were picked to finish eighth out of 14 teams in the American Conference.
The Gators are favored by 27.5 points.
Week 2 vs. Campbell: Win
The Fighting Camels went 2-10 last year and are the lone FCS school on Florida’s schedule. The Gators win big — hopefully.
Week 3 at Auburn: Loss
This is the first real test for Florida. The Tigers and Gators are in a similar position: Both have first-year SEC head coaches and are coming off seasons in which they failed to reach bowl eligibility. Auburn’s offense, much like Florida’s, was terrible last season, but it’s going to look a lot different in 2026. Ten of the 11 projected starters are newcomers via the transfer portal, most of whom came from USF.
Auburn’s defense should be good again in 2026, led by a strong linebacker corps and plenty of returning production.
I see this game as a toss-up on gameday. Early betting odds suggest Auburn will be favored by a point or two. I could see this being an ugly, low-scoring game in an insane atmosphere for the SEC opener. Auburn delivers Florida its first loss of the season.
Week 4 vs. Ole Miss: Win
Florida bounces back with an upset victory over Ole Miss in Week 4. The Gators and Rebels have battled over the last two seasons, with each team winning at home. Ole Miss probably has the best QB/RB pairing in the SEC and has the talent to beat any team it faces, but Lane Kiffin is no longer coaching the Rebels. Ole Miss also had to replace much of its defense and wide receiver room.
The Rebels should have an excellent defensive line, but I like Florida to pull off the upset at home.
Week 5 at Missouri: Win
This is another game that I view as a toss-up, but I have Florida beating the Tigers. Missouri has an excellent offensive line and who I believe is the best running back in the country, although there are some health concerns surrounding him. The Tigers’ season will be defined by quarterback Austin Simmons and their defense.
Week 6 vs. South Carolina: Win
South Carolina had one of the country’s worst offensive lines last year, so the Gamecocks replaced nearly the entire unit with portal additions. The improvement along the offensive line will determine how much better South Carolina can get. Sellers is an athletic quarterback with a huge ceiling, and he’s got an explosive playmaker around him in wide receiver Nyck Harbor.
If the offensive line holds up, South Carolina will be a formidable opponent, but I don’t see it. The Gators win at home.
Week 7 at Texas: Loss
I believe Texas is the most talented team in the SEC, and maybe the country. The Longhorns could realistically have a handful of first-round picks. They have a lethal wide receiver room surrounding quarterback Arch Manning, who played very well down the stretch last season. The Gators did beat Texas at home last season, but playing on the road in Austin will be a huge challenge.
The Gators suffer their second loss of the season.
Week 9 vs. Georgia (Neutral site): Loss
This is the stretch of games on Florida’s schedule that is the most difficult. The Gators haven’t beaten Georgia since 2020, having lost five straight to the Bulldogs. I do question their wide receiver room, but with Gunner Stockton back at quarterback and Kirby Smart at the helm, the Bulldogs will be a tough out this season. I don’t think Florida has enough on the line of scrimmage to pull off the upset.
The Gators lose to Georgia in Atlanta.
Week 10 vs. Oklahoma: Loss
If you’ve been following my coverage at Gator Country, you know I believe Oklahoma is the most underrated team in the SEC. While not possessing as much talent as Texas and Georgia, the Sooners should have another excellent defense under Brent Venables, a unit that ranked among the nation’s top 10 in both total and scoring defense last season.
The Sooners have John Mateer at quarterback, an excellent WR corps, and return four experienced offensive linemen while adding the seventh-best tackle in the portal, E’Marion Harris. The Gators lose their first game at home.
Week 11 at Kentucky: Win
I loved the Will Stein hire and Kentucky’s addition of quarterback Kenny Minchey, but I think Florida’s talent will be too much for the Wildcats. Kentucky’s offense is almost entirely made up of transfers, so it will be interesting to see how they come together in Year 1 under Stein.
Week 12 vs. Vanderbilt: Win
Vanderbilt had an incredible 10-win season in 2025 but lost key players at nearly every position. The Commodores made a surprising move when they named Blaze Berlowitz the starting quarterback over five-star freshman Jared Curtis. Berlowitz is a senior with just 265 career passing yards under his belt. My prediction is that Florida will actually face Curtis come game time. Either way, Vanderbilt is not as talented as it was last year. Florida wins at home.
Week 13 at FSU: Win
What’s happening in Tallahassee is bizarre, and Florida may not even be facing an FSU team led by Mike Norvell in Week 13. The Seminoles do have some excellent talent at wide receiver with Duce Robinson and Michai Danzy, but there are question marks pretty much everywhere else, including at quarterback. It’s on the road and a rivalry game, so anything can happen, but Florida State’s roster does not match up with Florida’s. The Gators win to end the regular season.