Happy Homecoming, Gator Nation!
The mood might not be great around here following Florida’s loss at Kentucky last week, but Saturday’s noon game against Vanderbilt (2-3, 0-1 SEC) will be the final home game until Nov. 13, so let’s all try to enjoy this weekend.
The No. 20 Gators have dominated this series, winning 29 of the last 30 meetings.
With this year’s matchup not expected to be very competitive either, this week’s keys to victory article takes more of a big-picture look at the Gators (3-2, 1-2). As always, my score prediction is included at the end.
1. Cut down on the penalties
This really could be all five items on the list this week. Yes, the Gators had a bunch of shortcomings last week, but the 15 penalties for 115 yards were by far the single biggest reason why they lost to Kentucky.
The eight false starts were shocking to see and hopefully were just a one-time thing.
I’d love to see the Gators only commit four or five penalties against Vandy, with all of them being aggressive mistakes like pass interference or holding instead of discipline issues such as false starts, delay-of-games and late hits.
Heck, I’d rather see them give up a sack because the linemen reacted too slowly than to see another yellow flag fly in before the snap.
I still think the Gators are good enough to beat every team left on their schedule but only if they stop beating themselves.
This game is about proving that they’re capable of doing that for an entire game.
2. Hit some big plays in the passing game
UF’s longest completion in SEC play went for just 33 yards against Tennessee. They didn’t attempt a single pass that traveled more than 20 yards downfield against Kentucky, and they only attempted maybe one or two such passes against Alabama and Tennessee.
Dan Mullen and Emory Jones can speak all they want about how defenses have taken the big shots away from them, but that’s not entirely true. They had several receivers open deep against Kentucky, but Jones didn’t pull the trigger.
He either needs to make better decisions or learn to be more aggressive. You’re going to have to make some tight-window throws to beat SEC defenses. The receivers aren’t going to be wide-open all the time like they are in non-conference games.
Plus, if it were as simple as defenses taking away the deep ball by lining up in a certain way, then how was Kyle Trask able to have so much success throwing it deep last season? Surely, defenses tried to take that away and force them to dink and dunk their way down the field, too.
If Trask could have success, Jones can as well.
The Gators have made things hard on themselves so far this season. By not having a vertical passing game, they’ve forced themselves to have to go on extended drives in order to score. Obviously, the more plays you run, the more likely you are to have a crucial penalty or a missed block that kills the drive.
I’d like to see Jones get Jacob Copeland and Justin Shorter involved by connecting on some deep balls early against a terrible Vandy defense. That will make this game much less stressful for everybody.
3. Don’t give up big plays
This has been the defense’s biggest weakness all season. If the opposing team runs 65 plays, they’ll play well on 61 of them. However, the four bad plays are usually so impactful that it changes the perception of their entire game.
Nearly half of Kentucky’s passing yards and exactly half of their offensive points came on one play – a 41-yard screen pass from Will Levis to Wan’Dale Robinson that featured multiple missed tackles.
The week prior, more than 42 percent of Tennessee’s total yards came on four plays.
They need to play a complete game, and that comes down to tackling fundamentals and focus. They have to assume that every play is the one that will decide the outcome of the game.
They can probably give up a couple of long touchdowns and still beat Vanderbilt comfortably, but they need to become more consistent heading into the LSU and Georgia games.
4. Don’t do anything stupid on special teams
The Gators have looked like “The Bad News Bears” on special teams this year. A missed extra point. A kickoff muffed out of bounds at the 1. A delay-of-game penalty prior to a long field goal attempt. A blocked field goal returned for a touchdown. A 20-yard punt.
And those are just the glaring mistakes that the casual fan can see from their couch. Who knows how many missed blocks, bad decisions by returners and poor tackling efforts they’ve had as well?
I don’t think you have to be elite on special teams and make a bunch of game-changing plays to be a championship-caliber team, but you can’t beat yourselves, either. You can’t win a game on special teams, but you can sure as heck lose one.
I just want to see a sound game on special teams to the point where nobody is talking about them after the game.
5. Show up at Gator Walk with at least 11 players
Yes, Vanderbilt truly is that terrible. Florida might be able to beat them with a group of walk-ons playing both ways.
This will be the Gators’ last guaranteed win for about a month, so try to enjoy it.
Score prediction
Florida 45, Vanderbilt 10
The Gators are going to win this game. The only question is whether they get out of the gates slow because it’s a noon game in front of a sparse crowd and because of their heartbreaking loss last week.
If they do, Vanderbilt might keep this game close for about 1 ½ quarters.
Otherwise, this will be a blowout from the opening kickoff.
I think the former scenario happens, and the Gators blow open a relatively close game late in the second quarter and early in the third quarter.