This is the game that everybody in Gator Nation has been looking forward to since the SEC Championship Game last December.
The No. 11 Gators (2-0) have a chance to earn redemption for that heartbreaking loss to Alabama, albeit with a very different looking offensive lineup. More importantly, they have an opportunity to prove to themselves and to the rest of the country that they are legitimate national title contenders.
That is much easier said than done, though. The No. 1 Crimson Tide (2-0) are once again loaded with NFL talent – on both the roster and the coaching staff.
Here are my five keys to victories for the Gators this week as well as my score prediction.
1. Get off to a quick start
This is critical for a couple of reasons. First, UF’s offense isn’t built to come from behind in the second half at all. Emory Jones has struggled with decision-making and interceptions, and the Tide are tied for the conference lead in interceptions. So, getting into a situation where everybody in the stadium knows that they’re about to throw the ball likely won’t work out well for them.
The Gators need to be able to run the ball for all four quarters, and the only way that happens is if they’re able to get off to a hot start and not trail by two or three scores in the first half.
It’s also important that they start fast so that they keep the crowd in the game. This is going to be one of the largest and most fired up crowds to enter the Swamp over the last decade or so. They can help the Gators build momentum and rattle Alabama quarterback Bryce Young, but only if the Gators can keep them engaged in the game by keeping it close. The crowd is the biggest X-factor in the game, and Florida needs to take full advantage of it.
It seems like every time Alabama plays in a big game like this, they bury their opponent by the end of the first quarter. The Gators cannot let that happen to them.
2. Don’t turn the ball over.
If the Gators are to win this game, it will probably have to be a high-scoring affair where they take advantage of every opportunity they get to score.
Jones cannot throw two interceptions in this game. Heck, he probably cannot even throw one.
By merely holding onto the ball, the Gators could wear down Alabama’s defense by the second half, minimize the number of possessions that the Tide’s offense gets and keep their defense out of bad situations. This is the type of game where playing keep-away on offense could be the best form of defense.
You have to play a clean game on offense to have a chance against Alabama. The last thing you want to happen is to throw an interception, lose by seven points and have to wonder “What if?” for the rest of time.
3. Get off the field when you have a chance.
This goes hand in hand with what I just said about not turning the ball over. The way you define good defense is vastly different against this team than against any other opponent.
If the Gators hold the Tide to 35 points, that will be a successful day for them, and it will give them a chance to win the game.
This is almost going to feel like an Arena Football game where you’re just hoping to get one or two stops per half.
So, it’s imperative that the Gators’ defense takes advantage of its limited opportunities. If it’s third-and-4, they cannot jump offside or get flagged for pass interference to extend the drive. They cannot allow the Tide to convert any third-and-longs by busting a coverage.
If Young throws a ball right into a defender’s chest, they have to catch it. If they fumble, the Gators have to recover it.
It’s virtually impossible to play good defense against Alabama, but it is possible to play opportunistic defense.
4. Win the line of scrimmage
A couple of years ago, the thought of the Gators controlling the line of scrimmage against the Tide would’ve seemed ludicrous. But it doesn’t seem that far-fetched anymore.
The Gators are leading the country with 381.5 rushing yards per game, while the Tide are giving up just 79.5 yards per game on the ground. So, something will have to give, and the Gators better hope that it’s Alabama’s defensive front.
Given their struggles in the passing game, the Gators likely need to rush for at least 200-250 yards to have a chance.
On the other side, Alabama has its weakest offensive line in years. They are only 10th in the league in rushing at 152.5 yards per game. They’re ninth in yards per carry at 4.2. They were only able to pick up 4.6 yards per carry against Mercer last week. Meanwhile, UF is only giving up 2.6 yards per rush.
If the Gators can stay balanced on offense and force Alabama to become pass-happy, they’ll be in excellent shape.
5. Harass Bryce Young
Young is extremely talented and very well could be a first round draft pick someday. But he’s still a first-year starting quarterback, and pressure and crowd noise can fluster even the most talented young quarterbacks.
Just look at what the Gators did to Auburn’s Bo Nix in 2019. They sacked him twice and hurried him three other times, including the first play of the game. That pressure combined with the deafening noise to make Nix an uncomfortable mess.
That’s the blueprint that the Gators need to follow against Young. They need to hit him early, often, hard and legally.
While getting sacks is nice, that’s far from the only way that the Gators will benefit from a consistent pass-rush. They need to force Young to get rid of the ball before he wants to and throw inaccurately because he’s thinking about getting hit. They need to mess up his internal clock to where he thinks he has to get rid of the ball before he actually does instead of calmly going through his reads.
Brenton Cox, Jeremiah Moon, Khris Bogle and Zachary Carter need to play the game of their lives.
Score prediction
Alabama 38, Florida 28
I think this game will be much more competitive than many of the national experts seem to think. Alabama is the most talented team in the country, but they’re also very young and inexperienced at some key positions on offense. You’d much rather play this Alabama team now than in November.
I think the Gators hang with the Tide for about three quarters. Eventually, though, the Gators’ offense will make a crucial mistake, and that will be all Alabama needs to extend its winning streak in this series to eight games.