Keys to victory: No. 11 Florida vs. Tennessee

After falling just short of what would’ve been one of the biggest regular season wins in school history last week against Alabama, the No. 11 Gators will try to get back on track when they take on Tennessee (2-1) in the Swamp on Saturday at 7.

Florida (2-1, 0-1 SEC) has won 15 of the last 16 meetings in this series, including four in a row. They are heavily favored to keep their streak of dominance going.

Here are my five keys to victory for the Gators this week as well as my score prediction.

1. Handle the Vols’ tempo

Tennessee coach Josh Heupel doesn’t have the most exotic scheme, but he makes up for it by playing at a breakneck speed. If Tennessee gains positive yards, they’ll hurry up to the line and try to snap the ball before UF’s defense has time to process what just happened and make the necessary adjustments.

Tempo has given the Gators’ defense trouble at times over the past couple of years. Most recently, South Florida used tempo to go on a 17-play, 85-yard drive two weeks ago.

Talent-wise, Florida’s defense should dominate Tennessee’s offense, but the Vols’ tempo is perhaps the biggest wild card in this game.

The key to slowing down the tempo is to create negative plays on first and second down. If the Vols lose yards, they’ll likely take more time to call their next play.

2. Don’t give up deep balls

Because of Heupel’s up-tempo style of play, defenses often bring their defensive backs closer to the line of scrimmage to cut down on the yards after catch on the swing passes and screens.

However, just when you feel like you’ve got a good feel for their short passing game, Heupel will try to beat you over the top with a deep ball.

The Volunteers have the personnel to make that strategy work. Velus Jones and Jimmy Calloway are both extremely fast wide receivers, and Joe Milton and Hendon Hooker both have strong arms and can make the deep throws.

UF’s first three opponents haven’t tested them deep that much, so it’s unknown how they’ll fare against an aggressive offense like Heupel’s.

If the Gators handle the tempo well and don’t let Jones and Calloway get behind them, they shouldn’t have any issues at all with shutting down the Tennessee offense.

3. Keep running the ball well

The Gators have the nation’s second-ranked rushing offense, while the Volunteers have the nation’s fifth-best rushing defense. So, this could be a really fun battle to watch in the trenches.

The Gators pounded one of the most talented defensive fronts in the country in Alabama for 258 yards and six yards per carry last week. Meanwhile, Tennessee’s front-seven is still untested, having played against Bowling Green, Pittsburgh and Tennessee Tech.

This should be a matchup that the Gators can dominate. By running the ball well, the Gators will be able to keep Emory Jones in more favorable passing situations. A strong running game combined with some three-and-outs by UF’s defense against the tempo should leave Tennessee’s defense gassed by midway through the third quarter.

4. Don’t turn the ball over

Turnovers seem to always be a key ingredient in every major upset. Florida is the better team and will almost certainly dominate the stats. Tennessee cannot beat the Gators, but the Gators can beat themselves if they’re careless with the ball and give the Volunteers some short fields and momentum.

Jones has thrown five interceptions in his first three starts, though his pick against Alabama was mostly the offensive line’s fault. It’d be nice to see him play a turnover-free game and throw a few touchdown passes against the Vols.

If the Gators commit fewer than three turnovers, they’ll probably win this game. Turn it over more than that, and things could get dicey.

5. Get off to a fast start

Tennessee is the type of team that the Gators could bury early. The Vols have the worst passing offense in the SEC, and they are very thin at several positions after the mass exodus that followed an NCAA investigation and a coaching change during the offseason. So, they are not built to come from multiple scores down in the second half at all.

Since they’re playing just their fourth game under a new staff, their team confidence might be fragile. Get out to a 14-0 lead, and the “Here we go again” type of thoughts could fill their heads.

As mentioned previously, the Vols’ tempo on offense can be turned against them with a couple of quick three-and-outs early.

If the Gators jump out to a two- or three-score lead in the first half, this game will be over before halftime. If they let the Volunteers hang around, Tennessee will start to believe that they can win this game, which will make them dangerous.

Score prediction

Florida 49, Tennessee 17

I don’t see this game being competitive for very long. The Gators seem to be hungry following their disappointing loss to Alabama, and the game being at night should help prevent any kind of post-Alabama letdown.

Florida’s offense should be able to do whatever they want against Tennessee’s defense. The Vols should be able to move the ball some on the Gators’ defense because of their tempo, but they are just way too inconsistent at quarterback and on the offensive line to keep pace with the Gators.

Florida wins this one convincingly.

Ethan Hughes
Ethan was born in Gainesville and has lived in the Starke, Florida, area his entire life. He played basketball for five years and knew he wanted to be a sportswriter when he was in middle school. He’s attended countless Gators athletic events since his early childhood, with baseball being his favorite sport to attend. He’s a proud 2019 graduate of the University of Florida and a 2017 graduate of Santa Fe College. He interned with the University Athletic Association’s communications department for 1 ½ years as a student and also wrote for InsideTheGators.com for two years before joining Gator Country in 2021. He is a long-suffering fan of the Jacksonville Jaguars. You can follow him on Twitter @ethanhughes97.