Keys to victory: No. 10 Florida at Kentucky

The No. 10 Gators hit the road for the first time in conference play on Saturday when they take on Kentucky (4-0, 2-0 SEC) at 6.

Florida has won 33 of the last 34 meetings in this series, but they’ve been far from dominant of late. It took Kentucky not covering two different receivers for UF to win the 2017 game in Lexington. In 2019, backup quarterback Kyle Trask took over for a severely injured Feleipe Franks and led the Gators to a comeback victory.

Sandwiched in between those two heart-stopping classics was Kentucky snapping its 31-game losing streak to UF in the Swamp in 2018.

Hopefully, for the sake of Gator Nation’s collective mental well-being, the Gators (3-1, 1-1) will win in far less dramatic fashion this time around.

Here are my five keys to victory for the Gators this week as well as my score prediction.

1. Get off to a fast start

This has been one of my keys to victory for three weeks now, and it will continue to be one until the Gators do it.

They fell behind Alabama 21-3 in the first quarter and trailed Tennessee in the second quarter. However, the Gators were able to feed off of the momentum generated by some big plays and the raucous crowds to get back into the Alabama game and pull away from Tennessee in the second half.

With this being a sold-out road game, they might not be so fortunate this week. If the Gators fall behind early, Kentucky will have the opportunity to use the crowd to its advantage and bury the Gators.

UF has generally played good defense in the second halves of games, but they need to put together a complete game this week. They can’t have those missed tackles or blown coverages this week.

Offensively, the Gators need to avoid those one or two turnovers or penalties that always seem to minimize their scoring output in first halves.

If the Gators can get out to a two-score lead early on, the crowd will become a non-factor, and the Gators should roll to victory.

2. Make the Wildcats one-dimensional

Kentucky’s offense can be extremely hard to defend if they’re able to run the ball at will. They can either keep pounding you between the tackles or take advantage of the extra defenders in the box by going deep on play-action passes.

The Wildcats’ offensive line isn’t great in pass-protection, as they’ve surrendered seven sacks. The pass rush is the biggest strength of Florida’s defense. As nose tackle Antonio Valentino said this week, they need to earn the right to rush the passer on third down by stuffing the run on first and second down.

While Kentucky has improved in the passing game this year, it’s still not the strength of their offense.

If the Gators force Kentucky into a bunch of third-and-6 situations or longer, they shouldn’t have much of a problem shutting down this offense. Allow them to keep running the ball, and they will wear UF’s defense down and go on long scoring drives.

3. Force turnovers

The Wildcats are dead last in the country with a minus-9 turnover margin. They have turned it over 11 times in four games, and it’s not like they’ve played any great defenses.

Quarterback Will Levis has thrown five interceptions, and they’ve lost six fumbles. Incredibly, they’ve coughed it up 14 times already but have been fortunate to recover more than half of them, so their turnover problem could be even worse.

Meanwhile, the Gators have only produced three turnovers this season and none since beginning conference play. Defensive coordinator Todd Grantham usually ranks near the top of the country in forcing turnovers, so you’ve got to think that they’re due to get some turnovers in bunches here soon. This would be the perfect game for it to happen.

4. Keep running the ball well

Each of the last two weeks, the Gators have faced one of the top rushing defenses in the country. In both instances, UF’s offensive line won the matchup.

They need to make that 3-for-3 this week.

The Wildcats rank 20th in rushing defense at 87.5 yards per game. They’re giving up just 2.9 yards per carry.

It’s always important to establish a running game, but it’s especially important when you’ve got a quarterback playing in his first major road test as the starter. The offensive line and running backs need to take control of this game and allow Emory Jones to ease his way into things.

5. Score touchdowns in the red zone

If this game is as close as I think it will be, red zone efficiency will be one of the most important stats in the game.

So far, the Gators have done well in the red zone, scoring touchdowns on 70.6 percent of their trips. However, they’ve also came away empty-handed on three occasions. They obviously can’t do that this week.

If Florida scores touchdowns when it gets to the red zone, I don’t think Kentucky’s offense is good enough to keep pace with them. If they leave the door open by settling for field goals, UK will have a chance.

Score prediction

Florida 28, Kentucky 20

This is one of the scariest games left on the Gators’ schedule, in my opinion, perhaps even scarier than the LSU game in two weeks.

Kentucky should’ve/could’ve/would’ve beaten the Gators the last two times they played in Lexington, so their fans and players believe that this is their time to finally break through.

This is the most balanced Kentucky offense in years, and their defense is still one of the top units in the SEC.

However, UF will do just enough to walk out of Kroger Field with its 34th win over the Wildcats in the last 35 meetings.

Ethan Hughes
Ethan was born in Gainesville and has lived in the Starke, Florida, area his entire life. He played basketball for five years and knew he wanted to be a sportswriter when he was in middle school. He’s attended countless Gators athletic events since his early childhood, with baseball being his favorite sport to attend. He’s a proud 2019 graduate of the University of Florida and a 2017 graduate of Santa Fe College. He interned with the University Athletic Association’s communications department for 1 ½ years as a student and also wrote for InsideTheGators.com for two years before joining Gator Country in 2021. He is a long-suffering fan of the Jacksonville Jaguars. You can follow him on Twitter @ethanhughes97.