In the 1990s, no rivalry had more national implications than Florida-Florida State. The teams combined to win three national championships in the ’90s, and both teams were ranked inside the top-10 of the Associated Press Poll in all 12 meetings.
This rivalry has certainly lost its luster since then. For the third time since 2011, the Gators (5-6, 2-6 SEC) and the Seminoles (5-6, 4-4 ACC) will meet as two unranked teams on Saturday at noon inside the Swamp. This will be the third time in the last four meetings that one of the teams will be led by an interim head coach.
While this game might not mean much outside of the Sunshine State, it means a lot to UF’s players and coaches. This is a chance for them to beat one of their biggest rivals, send the seniors out with a win in their final home game and earn a spot in a bowl game.
To do so, here are five keys to victory for the Gators this week. As usual, my score prediction is at the end.
1. Stop FSU’s running game
The Seminoles’ tandem of Jashaun Corbin and Treshaun Ward is pretty much the only thing they have going for them offensively. Corbin is a 220-plus-pound bruiser, while Ward is a sub-200-pound shifty back. They’re tied for the ACC lead with a 6.4 yards-per-carry average.
The two of them will challenge the tackling technique and mental fortitude of Florida’s front-seven. Stopping the run has been an off-and-on issue for them all season.
They did a good job against the SEC’s leading rusher, Tyler Badie, last week for about 2 ½ quarters. They need to play a complete game against FSU this week.
Florida State ranks 99th in the FBS in passing, so forcing them into obvious passing situations should work out in UF’s favor.
2. Pressure Jordan Travis
FSU’s offensive line has surrendered 33 sacks this season despite having some mobile quarterbacks. That figure is tied for 110th in the country.
That lack of pass-protection has forced them to have to rely on quick-hitters instead of being able to run some more complicated routes.
The Gators need to continue that trend this week. They recorded five sacks at Missouri last week, their most since the season opener against Florida Atlantic. Zachary Carter, Brenton Cox, Khris Bogle and co. need to dominate this game, and Christian Robinson needs to be aggressive in sending blitzes. This is the type of offensive line that you can wreak havoc against and the type of quarterback that can get rattled and make poor decisions under pressure.
3. Protect the QB
This is important for a couple of reasons.
First, the Seminoles are tied for 21st in the country with 32 sacks. Jermaine Johnson leads the ACC and is tied for fifth nationally with 10 ½ sacks.
Florida has done a good job in pass-protection for most of the season, though they’ve given up multiple sacks in four of their last five games. With injuries and inconsistencies still an issue, this is a key matchup to watch.
Also, Emory Jones’ status for the game is unknown after he reportedly injured an ankle during Monday’s practice. If he can’t go, Anthony Richardson will make his second start. He has also dealt with multiple injuries throughout the season, so he likely won’t be 100 percent healthy. So, UF’s offensive line needs to do an outstanding job of protecting him. They have no chance to win this game if they have to play Carlos Del Rio-Wilson or Jalen Kitna.
4. Get good QB play
Whoever plays quarterback is going to have to take care of the ball, make the right reads and hit the open receivers. Jones has struggled in those areas throughout the year, though he has played better the last two weeks against weaker competition.
Richardson’s first start against Georgia was about as big of a disaster as possible, with three turnovers in a span of about two minutes. Florida State’s defense isn’t anywhere near as good as Georgia’s, but he needs to play with more confidence and poise this time around.
The Gators’ running game has pretty much gone into hibernation for the winter. They rushed for less than 100 yards against two of the worst run defenses in the SEC in South Carolina and Missouri over the last three weeks, and they couldn’t even generate much of a consistent push up the middle against Samford.
They’re probably not going to run the ball very well in this game, so their quarterback(s) need to carry the offense to victory.
5. Make good play calls on offense
Dan Mullen served as the Gators’ primary play-caller throughout his tenure, which makes his in-season firing a little more challenging to overcome than usual.
Quarterbacks coach Garrick McGee will call the plays, a move that makes sense given his knowledge of what the quarterbacks do well and what they struggle with.
However, this was only his second year working for Mullen and his first in an on-field capacity. So, he might not have as much familiarity with their offensive scheme as you’d ideally like.
It’ll be interesting to see if McGee tweaks anything. Will there be certain passing concepts that they’ll run more or less than they did under Mullen? Will McGee feed Dameon Pierce the ball more? Will McGee say, ‘What do I have to lose?’ and dial up a bunch of trick plays?
Or will this look like the exact same offense?
Whatever McGee decides to do, it needs to work at a high level. The Gators will probably need to score 35 or more points to feel confident about winning this game.
Score prediction
Florida State 31. Florida 17
The Gators have said the right things this week about wanting to beat a rival, make a bowl game and send their seniors out the right way. However, it’s another thing to actually do it.
With the coaching search rumors heating up and the possibility of some players thinking about their futures, it’s hard to imagine this team playing an inspired and focused brand of football.
The Seminoles get the win, but help will be on the way soon for the Gators.