Saturday’s matchup between Florida and South Carolina is huge for the Gators.
First, they just need to win a game to give them and their fans something to feel good about again and enter the offseason with as much momentum as possible.
Additionally, this game could also have big-picture ramifications on the program. Of the Gators’ four losses this season, two of them were to teams that were universally believed to be better than Florida (Alabama and Georgia) and the other two came to teams that the Gators were better than but not so much so that a loss was considered a huge shocker (Kentucky and LSU).
If they end the season with just those four losses, the pressure on Dan Mullen will ease up a little bit. If they lose to a team like South Carolina (4-4, 1-4 SEC) that they have no business losing to, this could become a true hot-seat situation.
Here are my five keys to victory for the Gators (4-4, 2-4) this week as well as my score prediction.
1. Stay focused on the task at hand
The fact that Mullen canceled his players’ media availabilities this week says a lot about the state of affairs within the program right now. The external noise about the season being over, coaches needing to be fired and recruiting needing to be better is clearly threatening to penetrate the Gators’ locker room, if it hasn’t already done so.
But the Gators can’t let all of the social media criticism distract them. They’ve got to be fully focused on the task at hand, which is beating South Carolina on the road.
If they avoid making mistakes that are typically associated with a lack of focus – false start penalties, fumbles, running the wrong routes, not filling the correct gaps and coverage busts – then they shouldn’t have anything to worry about. But, if their collective mindset isn’t what it needs to be, the Gamecocks could make them pay.
2. Take care of the darn ball.
Florida ranks 13th in the SEC and 123rd nationally in turnover margin at minus-7. A large reason for that is that they’ve turned it over 16 times on offense – 14 of which are interceptions – which opponents have converted into 66 points. Their three turnovers in a span of about two minutes against Georgia last week led to 21 Bulldogs points and eliminated any chance they had of winning the game.
The Gators haven’t won the turnover margin in any game this year.
Meanwhile, South Carolina’s defense leads the conference with 17 takeaways and 11 interceptions. That should be a scary matchup for Gators fans.
Turnovers are usually one of the biggest components to an upset, so quarterback Emory Jones needs to take care of the ball. The Gamecocks probably won’t be able to stop the Gators very often, so it’s imperative that the Gators don’t help them out by stopping themselves.
3. Get the running game going again.
The offense needs to go back to being based around a dominant rushing attack like it was in the first four games. They didn’t run the ball very well against Vanderbilt or LSU, and they were down so many points against Georgia that the running game really wasn’t a factor.
The Gamecocks are third in the SEC and 12th in the country in passing defense but just 11th in the league and 87th in the country in rushing defense. The Gators have a deep stable of running backs but are down to one quarterback that Mullen trusts, and he has had a major problem with interceptions this season.
This shouldn’t be complicated. Give the ball to Dameon Pierce, Malik Davis and Nay’Quan Wright a combined 30 times or so, let Jones keep it around 10 times, pile up 300-plus rushing yards and get out of Columbia with an easy win.
4. Stop the run
The Gators did a very good job of stopping the run against Georgia with the exception of two touchdown runs. That needs to carry over to this week.
South Carolina coach Shane Beamer hasn’t named a starting quarterback yet between Zeb Noland and Jason Brown.
Given that uncertainty, whoever ends up being the starting quarterback will probably spend a lot of time handing off to Kevin Harris and ZaQuandre White, who make up perhaps the deepest position on their roster. White is averaging 6.9 yards per carry and is a big-play threat, while Harris is a classic between-the-tackles bruiser.
If South Carolina is able to be efficient on the ground, they’ll limit the number of possessions in the game, which will put more pressure on Florida’s offense, which in turn could lead to turnovers.
5. Get after the quarterback(s)
South Carolina has surrendered 19 sacks, which is tied for the fourth-most in the conference. Florida is tied for fifth in the conference with 2.75 sacks per game. So, this should be a matchup that the Gators can dominate.
With the Gamecocks’ quarterback situation being as shaky as it is, it’s important that they make whoever takes the snaps uncomfortable. The last thing they can allow to happen is for Noland and/or Brown to complete a bunch of easy throws early in the game to build confidence.
Zachary Carter, Brenton Cox and co. need to send a message from the first snap that this is about to be a miserable day for them.
Score prediction
Florida 31, South Carolina 17
The Gators are the far more talented team, but the trajectory of this season and the possible outside distractions make it tough to know what to expect.
I think that the Gators’ defense will shut down the Gamecocks’ offense with the exception of the one or two big plays that they seem to give up in every game.
On the other side, I think UF will get the running game going just enough to put some distance between them and South Carolina on the scoreboard and cruise to a workmanlike win.