Florida and Missouri have played one of the weirdest series in the SEC.
The Gators are 5-4 against the Tigers since Missouri joined the league in 2012. However, the last eight games have all been decided by 13 or more points. So, things either go extremely well or extremely poorly for the Gators; there’s been no middle ground.
Florida (5-5, 2-5 SEC) and Missouri (5-5, 2-4) will meet again on Saturday in Columbia.
Here are my five keys to victory for the Gators this week as well as my score prediction.
1. Contain Tyler Badie
Missouri is mostly a one-man show on offense. Badie leads the SEC and is fourth in the FBS with 1,239 rushing yards. He’s posted four games of 200-plus yards. He also leads his team with 50 receptions. His 16 total touchdowns are tied for the league lead.
The Tigers are going to feed him the ball in a variety of ways, whether it’s between the tackles, outside zone plays or on quick throws.
So, if the Gators are able to limit Badie’s production, they’ll likely hold Missouri to a low number of points as well.
To do that, Florida’s defense has to rediscover its early-season form. They held four of their first six opponents to under 100 rushing yards, but they’ve given up an average of 266 yards in their last three SEC games.
If they can hold Badie and co. to around 150 rushing yards or so, they should be in good shape.
2. Play tighter coverage
Before last week, UF’s secondary was having an under-the-radar good season. They ranked third in the SEC and 23rd in the country in passing defense.
Then, as has been typical with all phases of this team all season, they laid an egg against Samford, allowing the Bulldogs to throw for more than 400 yards.
Samford had receivers running wide open over the middle of the field on simple slant routes. When they went deep, the Gators were usually in good position, but they just didn’t make plays on the ball.
And then there were all of the short screen passes that turned into big gains due to their inability to shed blockers and make tackles.
If Samford was able to have success doing those things, you can bet that Missouri will try to do the exact same things since they have better athletes than Samford.
Tigers quarterback Connor Bazelak has a strong arm and a lot of confidence in it, so the Gators can’t let him get into rhythm by leaving receivers wide open again this week.
3. Run the ball
Missouri is giving up 249.6 rushing yards per game. That’s the worst mark in the SEC by nearly 60 yards. They’re giving up 5.8 yards per carry. That’s the worst mark in the league by .4 yards.
This should be a game where the Gators are able to run the ball at will, go on some long touchdown drives and reduce the number of drives that their struggling defense is on the field for. There’s no reason Emory Jones should have to throw the ball more than 20 times in this game.
Then again, Florida faced another bad rushing defense two weeks ago in South Carolina and only ran for 82 yards.
That wasn’t a recipe for success in that game, and it probably won’t be in this game, either.
The offensive line has to find a way to play like it did early in the season when they pushed around Alabama and were among the national leaders in rushing for a while because Jones hasn’t proven that he can beat a quality defense by throwing the ball 40-plus times in a game.
If the Gators can rush for 250 yards or so, they should win this game without much trouble.
4. Don’t turn the ball over
The Samford game marked the first time this season that the Gators didn’t commit a turnover. They’ve turned it over multiple times in six of their 10 games.
When you’re playing a game that’s expected to be close on the road, turning the ball over is often the difference between winning and losing.
In particular, Jones needs to not throw any interceptions and to tuck the ball in tighter when he’s scrambling. As we saw in the Georgia and South Carolina games, all it takes is one or two plays to turn a competitive game into a blowout.
Plus, with the way UF’s defense has been playing, the offense needs to help them out by making them drive the length of the field and allowing the defense to get ample rest between series.
If they take care of the ball, there’s no reason that the Gators can’t score 40 points on this team.
5. Stop giving away points on special teams
The Gators did this again last week by giving up a 98-yard kickoff return touchdown and allowing Samford to recover an onside kick that led to a field goal.
Special teams mistakes played a large role in their losses to Alabama and Kentucky, and they nearly cost them the game against Samford last week.
When you’ve got a defense that is surrendering 40-plus points just about every time out, you can’t let the other team score on special teams on top of it.
Score prediction
Missouri 45, Florida 38
The Gators were 8 ½-point favorites as of Wednesday night, but anybody who places a bet on this game is either extraordinarily bold, extraordinarily dumb or both. There are about a million different ways that this game could play out, and it’s hard to say which scenario is more likely than the others.
The Gators are a more talented team than Missouri, and Missouri doesn’t have much of a home-field advantage. So, the Gators should win this game.
However, with the way the defense has played over the last five weeks, Jones’ turnover issues and the way that they played the last time that they were on the road, I have to pick the Tigers to win this one. I simply have very little faith in this defense to be able to keep Badie from having a huge game.