If the head coach is to be believed, there is going to be some roster movement after spring. I mean, a lot of roster movement. An unprecedentedly large amount.
Before running down the details, I’ll note that we’re all just starting to learn Billy Napier’s communication strategy and style. He seems pretty plainspoken, often sounding monotone in his press appearances. There is value in never getting too high or too low. In the manner in which he speaks, at least, Napier is there.
However, Urban Meyer could also be very monotone when talking to the media. He also was prone to hyperbole. Sometimes it was massive hyperbole.
Talk to him the first week of fall camp and it’d sound like the Gators would be lucky to win a game. In 2008, he equated DT Omar Hunter’s signing to that of Tim Tebow. When then-Orlando Sentinel reporter Jeremy Fowler accurately quoted Deonte Thompson calling John Brantley “a real quarterback” in comparison to Tebow, Meyer decided Fowler was a bad person and chewed him out at practice.
I doubt we’ll see Napier lose it like Meyer did in that last instance. However, it’s too early yet to know how much embellishment the new boss puts on his language.
This issue wasn’t even on my radar until last week when Napier addressed the state of the roster after the first scrimmage of his tenure.
“We’re literally going to give five walk-ons scholarships this spring.” Yikes.
He also said the number of people they’d need from the transfer portal was “approaching double digits.” He went on further: “You can anticipate us being very aggressive in the portal this spring. We need players. I think the approach is going to be to acquire as many good players as we can at any position.”
A big screaming question arises from those quotes: whose scholarships are you going to give all those players?
Because football programs don’t put scholarship lists up publicly, it can be an inexact science to figure out just how many are committed at any given time. One thing never changes though: a program must be down to no more than 85 players on scholarship by the start of the preseason practice session.
Nick de la Torre, formerly of Gator Country and now at Gators Online, published a scholarship breakdown after national signing day. Since then, there have been two confirmed changes that cancel each other out: Arlis Boardingham signed a few days after NSD, and Emory Jones announced his intention to transfer.
The bottom line is that the football program now (probably) sits at 90 or 91 committed scholarships for the 2022 season. The discrepancy is related to whether former walk on long snapper Marco Ortiz will remain on scholarship after earning one last year. They’re one-year renewable, and while it’d be nice for the staff to keep him on scholarship, there is no obligation to do so.
For now, let’s go with 90 scholarships.
Napier said he “literally” will give five scholarships to walk ons. Ortiz probably would be towards the front of that line given that he got one last year. Noah Keeter, a scholarship linebacker at UCLA who transferred to UF as a walk-on in 2020, might be another since he’s been working as a full-in at the injury plagued tight end position. I’d be completely guessing at who else might get one of these scholarships for walk-ons, but if five of them literally get financial aid, that puts the roster up to 95.
On top of that, Napier said he plans to be “aggressive” in the portal with some specific needs “approaching double digits”. Let’s call it eight, since that’s getting near to but not quite hitting double digits. We’re now up to 103.
Under these assumptions, Florida will need to shed 18 players currently on scholarship by summer’s end.
It’s not hard to find a handful of transfer candidates. Generally speaking, any scholarship player in his last year or two of eligibility who’s yet to play much and isn’t pushing for a starting role is a transfer candidate. There are a few of those, as there always are each year.
People have been speculating about one of the 2021 quarterback signees heading out ever since Napier brought in Jack Miller as a transfer — and especially after Napier then signed a QB in the ’22 class. Having more than four scholarship quarterbacks on a roster typically isn’t done. Napier also spoke about Gage Wilcox’s injury this spring as “career-ending”, though nothing has been officially announced. He could be one more.
Getting to 18, however, is a much taller task. I won’t even try here because I don’t want to impugn any players who’ve done nothing but work hard and just haven’t found a way to contribute yet for whatever reason. And perhaps the scholarships for walk-ons are only for the summer session and will not extend to the fall, in which case it’s actually closer to 12 current scholarship players who’ll need to go.
The actual positions of the players who transfer in will also make a difference. They do need a tight end if Wilcox’s career is indeed done, and they could use a speedy slot guy with only converted defensive back Fenley Graham fitting that bill right now.
Anyone else who arrives will essentially be taking the place of someone who’s already there, however. UF is down on proven players in several areas, but they’re not actually down on numbers. They are currently four to six scholarships over the limit, after all, depending on Wilcox and Ortiz.
Once spring is over, we’ll get a better idea of whether a dozen or a dozen and a half current Gators will need to hit the portal or not. In the process, we’ll get an idea of whether Napier is an exaggerator or if he’s a completely reliable straight shooter. If it’s the latter, there’s going to be an exodus the of likes of which we’ve never seen in Gainesville.