I give Texas A&M a mulligan for its 17-12 opening win over Vanderbilt. Nearly everyone’s first games have had some issues in 2020, and the Aggies outgained Vandy by about three yards a play anyway. The margin could’ve been bigger, but they lost three fumbles, two of them in Commodore territory. Last week’s game against the Crimson Tide is more instructive.
To a certain extent, Alabama-Texas A&M was similar to Florida-South Carolina. The winning team had a play count in the low 50s and a time of possession in the low 20s. The losing team had a play count in the 70s and a time of possession north of 35 minutes. Both wins could’ve been bigger if not for the losing team possessing the ball for almost an entire quarter.
The victors also had success rates around ten percentage points higher than the losers, and they were almost comically more explosive through the air. The losing teams each had two standout offensive players who had good games but couldn’t do it all by themselves.
The Aggies got a touchdown one play after an interception and forced a three-and-out to start the second quarter, but it was disaster from there. The offense went three-and-out itself, after which Bama ran up 21 unanswered (including a pick-six) to close out the first half. The Aggies had possession for almost 12 of the 15 minutes of the third quarter, not unlike how South Carolina sat on the ball for almost their entire fourth against Florida. But while the Gators threw a pick in there to shorten a drive, Bama got a big play touchdown.
Can Florida make Texas A&M look like South Carolina like how Alabama did? I’m not so sure. It’s in the realm of possibility if the Gators play well and the Aggies play poorly, but it’s not the most likely outcome. If Florida wants to plant its flag as a true playoff contender, it will need to leave Kyle Field with a win. And getting one may end up looking a bit like last week, if not necessarily in the same magnitude.
Winning up front
Texas A&M has the best lines that Florida has seen to this point. Its offensive line was able to move the line of scrimmage against Bama’s front on occasion, and Kellen Mond took no sacks. He had to scramble on occasion, but he has that ability.
The Tide was able to get some free rushers off the edge, especially in the second half. Sometimes it was just a case of overloading the blockers, and at least once it was a case of a pulling guard not getting there in time. If Todd Grantham wants to get in touch with his pre-2019 self and get creative with blitzes, there could be chances for reasons I’ll get into later.
The defensive line didn’t get to Mac Jones a ton — his only sack came by a defensive back after a planned rollout — but it contained the run well. Najee Harris got almost all of the carries in the first three quarters, and he went for just 3.6 yards per carry. He still had a 50% success rate because he never ran the ball with more than six yards to go, but that was his lowest yards per carry rate since taking over as the primary back last year.
Florida’s offensive line has looked better this year, but it will need to keep progressing. Kyle Trask has taken at least one sack in both games so far, and, while Dameon Pierce has run for almost six yards per carry, he’s having to redirect and run through tackles an awful lot.
The Gator defensive line hasn’t been that inspiring either. A&M will be happy to go on 10+ play, 5+ minute drives if UF will let them. Minimizing the number of possessions gives the Aggies a better chance at winning, so the defense will have to find a way to get off the field. Better play up front will go a long way with that.
Big play ability
Alabama had touchdown passes of 78, 87, and 63 yards. I don’t think Florida will replicate that kind of thing. It’s unlikely to happen regardless of teams participating in a game.
That said, the Aggie secondary is vulnerable. The safety play in particular stood out as spotty, and on top of the three long touchdowns, the defensive backs picked up a pair of pass interference flags.
We know Trask can hit his targets on intermediate and longer routes. As long as the offensive line can give him time, those will be there. If the Gators can run at all, play action will be extra dangerous as those safeties stare into the backfield and lose track of receivers. And no, I didn’t see anyone who can cover Kyle Pitts singlehandedly.
If UF gets the big plays it is capable of, it’ll be a repeat of last week when the winning team runs fewer plays and has less time of possession.
Keeping it short
The Aggie passing game with Mond has for a while been a lot about short routes. Mond seldom throws more than about ten yards past the line of scrimmage, especially when it’s not 3rd & long.
After Jhamon Ausbon opted out, A&M no longer had anyone proven at receiver. The guys who opted in still have not proven themselves. It’s hard to, I guess, if you’re mostly doing quick slants, drags, and outs.
The two best targets against the Tide were RB Ainias Smith and TE Jalen Wydermyer. Smith is small but quick, so keeping track of him is a must. He had a couple of catches on wheel routes where Alabama just didn’t cover him for some reason, and on the game he had six grabs on ten targets for 123 yards.
Wydermyer is excellent at using his body to box out defenders. He’s not as explosive as Pitts is, but he’ll stress Florida’s linebackers in coverage. Jimbo Fisher has always liked to use tight ends in the passing game, and Wydermyer will be a thorn in the Gators’ side all game.
Because the receivers aren’t special and the passing game is a lot of short stuff, Grantham will be able to get away with blitzing if he wants to. He should be able to trust Kaiir Elam, Marco Wilson, Jaydon Hill, and Chester Kimbrough in one-on-one coverage. I hope Florida has spent the week studying how Alabama got those free edge rushers. There isn’t as big a downside to the blitz not getting home this week.
If the offense hits on big plays and the defense gets aggressive, Florida can register a statement win on the road. If its lines don’t perform well, it could be a long afternoon. The opportunity is there for a win like last week’s, only against a better team. Taking the initiative will help the Gators take the game and the win.