How Dan Mullen has built his Florida rosters

So far this offseason I’ve done deep dives into how Florida ended up with the roster situation it has at defensive tackle, cornerback, and wide receiver. Rather than continuing to go through each grouping, I’m going to take a step back today and look at how the Gators have been building a roster as a whole.

Early in his tenure, Dan Mullen fielded a question about how many players he likes to get at each position in each recruiting class. He gave approximate numbers in response.

Before running things down, a couple of notes. First, I did the addition for you and the numbers add up to a recruiting class of 17-21 players. A class of 17 would be unusually small, and even 21 is on the smaller side for a lot of schools these days. Excluding non-qualifiers, though, Mullen’s four classes have had 20, 21, 23, and 22 players, respectively. I suspect his heavy use of the portal is both a cause and effect of his classes being on the lower side.

Second, Mullen gave out numbers for offensive line, defensive line, and linebackers as groups. Taking him at his word, we can’t break it down between offensive guards and tackles, or defensive ends and tackles. Further, UF lists the Buck rush ends as linebackers even as they sometimes get bunched in with the defensive linemen in places.

And finally, the numbers are a guideline. Signing more or less than the figure given could be appropriate given the state of the roster at the time.

Here is how Mullen’s classes have done versus his preferred numbers, with non-qualifiers excluded. I used Florida’s positional listings wherever possible, so for example the younger David Reese went into the safety bucket in 2018 because he was listed as a DB that year. I have Justin Watkins as a corner for ’18 as well. I put Diwun Black as a safety for 2021 because he played DB as a JUCO. Bucks are linebackers, and UF counts the Star position as a safety for listing purposes.

Position Target # 2018 2019 2020 2021
QB 1 1 1 1 2
RB 1 2 1 0 ❌ 0 ❌
WR 2-3 1 ❌ 3 2 2
TE 1-2 3 1 1 2
OL 3 4 5 4 3
DL 3-4 1 ❌ 1 ❌ 4 4
LB 2 1 ❌ 5 2 2
CB 2 1 ❌ 4 3 2
S 2 5 0 ❌ 5 4
Specialists 0-1 1 0 1 1

Let’s get through this before we start talking portal, okay?

The year with the most numerical misses was, appropriately, the transitional class of 2018. Those are usually a bit of a mess for everyone. The 2019 haul had a pair of misses in DL and safety, but in the case of the latter, UF signed five the year before. One was Randy Russell who was disqualified medically before the February signing day even happened, so it was really more like four. I’ll come back to this.

The only misses the last two seasons were technically running back. Here’s where the portal comes in.

Mullen argued, not entirely convincingly given what the recruiting reporting said at the time, that he saw Miami transfer Lorenzo Lingard as his running back for the ’20 class. He did mention that he wouldn’t have turned down a premium back whose name might or might not have rhymed with “showman” (okay, maybe not that last part), but he said Lingard was why he didn’t go further down his board to reach for a back.

Terrible circumstances led UF to end up with Demarkcus Bowman anyway — he picked Clemson to be near his grandfather in Atlanta, but his grandfather passed away last year — and with the eligibility mulligan, he functionally worked as a ’21 true freshman anyway. Those two misses don’t have to be seen as misses, unless both of them go pro after 2022 and Florida is stuck without any veteran backs.

The “miss” at receiver in 2018 works something of the same way, since the Gators added Van Jefferson and Trevon Grimes that year. They had the sort of eligibility left that JUCO transfers do, so along with actual JUCO transfer Noah Banks, it was a bit like UF went heavy on the junior college circuit that year from a roster management standpoint.

The wonky numbers at D-line and linebacker early on also had a little to do with the transition to Todd Grantham’s defense. You don’t need as many defensive linemen for a 3-4, and Grantham never plays more than two non-Buck linebackers. When he needs to go heavier against a rushing team, he puts two Bucks on the field to make a five-man front. The surge of linebackers in ’19 came largely from UF trying to load up on Bucks, even as a couple of them ended up moving back a level.

But, the issues with defensive tackle and corners in those first two years are ones I touched on in my pieces on those positions. They’re short now in part because of a lack of numbers in those early classes, particularly a lack of ones who stuck around. The large safety class of ’18 melted away with Russell’s disqualification, Reese and Amari Burney moving to linebacker, and John Huggins being dismissed.

That’s why, after a year of landing zero while trying to play catchup on corners, UF signed five more safeties. In all, only three of the ten defensive back signees from the first two classes are still playing back there for the Gators this year: Trey Dean, Kaiir Elam, and Jaydon Hill. Hence, the Gators signed 14 DBs combined in the subsequent two classes (with one of them already gone).

In one sense, it’s good to see the number of misses going down over the years as Mullen has settled into the job. At the same time, he’s still having to adjust to those misses from years ago. The roster is past the point of needing to make up for the McElwain administration’s issues, but Mullen’s early classes did create new ones.

Mullen said he didn’t sign a full class in 2018 because it is hard to develop firm relationships on short notice when changing jobs. Fair enough, and two days after the early signing date he took Trevon Grimes as a transfer. Adam Shuler took the final initial counter for the year over the summer.

In this past cycle, Florida didn’t sign anyone in February and had, by my unofficial count, four initial counters open after the December signing period. Two went to the much-needed defensive tackle position with Antonio Shelton and Daquan Newkirk, and one was going to go to Arik Gilbert before he changed his mind. If I have the numbers right, there are two left.

No one has come out and said it like Mullen did in ’18, but I believe the Gators intentionally undersigned this year to reserve initial counters for transfers. Doing so to leave room for a couple of DTs where there’s an obvious roster hole is one thing, but having a couple in the back pocket for potential moves in the future based on opportunity is another.

It appears to me that Mullen got an early jump on the strategy of leaving spots open for transfers in anticipation of the new one-time transfer rule that finally got approved. Maybe he was going to do it regardless, but I can’t help but wonder if the experience of the 2019-20 cycle played an outsized role in his thinking.

Signee and Bahamas native Wardrick Wilson had an unexpected visa issue and couldn’t enroll. Because he didn’t enroll in a four-year college at UF or anywhere else, his initial counter slot opened back up.

That slot then went to Brenton Cox, who chose to transfer from UGA for the fall 2019 semester. If my accounting is correct then Cox would’ve had to wait until January to enroll had Wilson made it to school, which could’ve meant he went elsewhere. UF also had an initial counter spot open last fall and therefore could’ve taken Demarkcus Bowman as a mid-semester transfer had he wanted to do it then, although he waited to January to make the move.

Until we see words or actions to the contrary, I expect Florida will be taking signing classes close to the 21 figure that is the upper limit of Mullen’s estimates from way back when. With transfers likely to rise, having flexibility to accommodate a Cox or Bowman, however they want to do it, is worth it. Florida has seldom gone into fall camp right at the 85 scholarship limit anyway, and the prospect of immediate help from a transfer might be worth the tradeoff of a project signee who may or may not pan out years down the line.

Mullen is generally hitting his targets now, it’s just that those targets appear to have expanded to include number of spots left open for transfers.

David Wunderlich
David Wunderlich is a born-and-raised Gator and a proud Florida alum. He has been writing about Florida and SEC football since 2006. He currently lives in Naples Italy, at least until the Navy stations his wife elsewhere. You can follow him on Twitter @Year2