GC VIP: Orange and Blue Musings — 12/16/20 Edition

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by Will Miles

Keyontae Johnson

You hoped when Gators forward Keyontae Johnson collapsed on the court last Saturday morning that it would be something benign. 

When news came out that he had been in a medically-induced coma, it became pretty clear that wasn’t true. That news was then updated to suggest that while Johnson was in critical but stable condition, he was also following simple commands. Now, he’s apparently communicating with him family, his doctors and even his teammates.

This is unbelievable news, considering where we were late on Saturday. It also puts a loss to LSU in perspective when you’ve watched a kid who represents your school going through something so serious. Hopefully he can return to basketball activities, but more than that, hopefully he can lead a long and prosperous life.

Many in Gator Nation have already reached out, but many others may wish to do so as well. So I wanted to share that if you want to send letters or cards, you can do so at PO BOX 11485, Gainesville, FL 32604 C/O UF Administration.

Then read this fantastic piece by Chris Harry about Johnson’s trek to Gainesville amid his mother’s battle with cancer. It really does give great insight into the life and character of this young man.

Then go hug your kids.

Who throws a shoe, honestly?

Perhaps the most ridiculous loss in Florida Gators football history was marked with perhaps the most ridiculous play to ever grace Ben Hill Griffin Stadium.

There are lots of ways to lose a game. But an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty for throwing an opponent’s cleat after making a tackle to get a third-down stop is pretty far down the list of ways you might imagine going in.

But there we were on Saturday night, watching in disbelief as the Florida defense – which has struggled to get stops all year – voluntarily gave LSU another set of downs that would eventually lead to the win.

There were lots of reasons Florida lost this game. Both of Kyle Trask’s interceptions were deep in LSU territory, with one going the other way for six points. His fumble after a busted assignment on a stunt late in the first half gifted LSU another three points. The Gators offense had six (!!) explosive plays in the first half compared to one for LSU, yet the Gators trailed by a touchdown.

But the enduring image of this game is going to be Marco Wilson stripping his opponent of his shoe and chucking it downfield. It’s not just because that moment prevented Florida from getting the ball back to potentially drive for a game winning score. It’s also because that lack of discipline epitomizes all of the frustrations that the fan base has had with Todd Grantham’s defense all year.

Marco Wilson

Marco Wilson hasn’t been very good this year. He even admitted as much after the Texas A&M game, with reports that he addressed his teammates directly and apologized for his performance.

So for Wilson to be the one who would throw the shoe at the end that would end up costing the Gators so dearly felt oddly appropriate, but also so disheartening.

I say that because Wilson is one of those players who lived through the 2017 season and then clearly worked hard after a significant knee injury in 2018 to get back. I say that because Wilson and C.J. Henderson both came into the program ranked very similarly overall in the 2017 class, and while Henderson is getting paid first round NFL money, I’m not sure Wilson will make it into an NFL camp.

And I say that because I knew the minute that it happened that Wilson was going to get ravaged on social media.

I’m glad Dallas Baker reached out to Wilson. I’m glad Chad Wilson (his father) is defending his son. I hope the players rally around Wilson and help to send him out on a high note against Alabama and in the bowl game.

I get that there’s outrage. Throwing the shoe was inexcusable. But so is insulting a player who makes a mistake, especially with taunts on social media that you wouldn’t dare say to his face.

If you feel better about yourself after going after a 21-year old kid on social media, that says something about you, and it’s not good.

Everything had to go wrong

Wilson’s play epitomized the loss, but Florida had multiple opportunities to salt this one away and just couldn’t do it.

ESPN’s Bill Connelly ran some numbers and put LSU’s win expectancy after the game at 0.6%, the lowest for any winning team all year. What that says to me is that Florida had to hand the game to LSU on a silver platter.

That they did. Busted coverages turned into easy touchdowns. Interceptions and fumbles turned into punts the other way. Red zone inefficiencies cost the Gators multiple times.

Put it this way, Florida averaged 8.2 yards per play against LSU, which is almost a full yard higher than they’ve averaged on the season. Yet, the Gators only scored 34 points, a full touchdown less than their season average.

Yes, there’s some luck involved. LSU had to hit a 57-yard field goal in a dense fog. Trask’s second interception couldn’t be duplicated if you tried. Fourth-and-goal from the 1-yard line will almost always end up as a touchdown. Could Kyle Pitts have played?

But this is why you recruit like crazy. This is why you drill into your players that all they can control is doing their job on that particular play. This is why you practice two-minute drill situations. This is why you discipline players for small infractions along the way.

Because one game where it all goes wrong can cost you a chance at the playoff.

One score games

In Dan Mullen’s first two years in Gainesville, the Gators played 7 one-score games (8 points or less) and went 6-1 in those matchups. This season, Florida has only played two, and they’ve lost both of them.

That’s the way things go long-term, as close games are typically a 50/50 proposition. Coaching does appear to make a little bit of a difference here, but if you’re relying on wins in close games, it’s eventually going to bite you.

That’s what happened to Jim McElwain in 2017. Not only did he have to weather the credit card scandal and Feleipe Franks’ first year starting, but he also was trying to build on a 7-1 record in close games his first two years in 2015 and 2016. 

The Michigan loss certainly set the tone for the season, but the real killers were the stretch of close wins over Tennessee (26-20) and Kentucky (28-27) followed by close losses to LSU (16-17), Texas A&M (17-19) and South Carolina (20-28). It is true that McEwain’s 2017 team wasn’t very good. But had they been able to pull out two of those three close games, he likely would have been able to keep his job for another season.

So keep that in mind when evaluating the 2020 Gators season as a whole. Mullen has gone from relying on close games in years one and two (which he won) to losing them in year three. Yes, there are warts with this team that have caused those losses, but a lot of it is luck too.

Trask and the Heisman

Despite the loss to LSU, Kyle Trask still threw for 474 yards and accounted for four touchdowns. If that’s a “down” game, feel free to give me 15 of those from Emory Jones next season.

Yes, the turnovers were a major contributing factor in the loss. But every QB who has to take chances is eventually going to throw an interception or two. The fact that Trask only has five on the season is remarkable considering how much Florida has had to rely on its passing game.

So can Trask still win the Heisman? Absolutely.

This is different than 2001, where Rex Grossman was poised to win the award until the Gators lost to Tennessee in another rescheduled game. In that case, the loss to Tennessee not only cost Florida a shot at the National Championship and Grossman a shot at the Heisman, it also cost the Gators a place in the SEC Championship Game.

That’s not the case here. Instead, Trask gets to show his skills and abilities in front of a huge national audience against what everyone thinks is the best team in the country. Pull out a win and play better than Mac Jones (a tall task since Jones gets to go against this Florida defense) and Trask should be able to seal up the award.

It’s a small consolation for a team that thought it would be playing for the playoff this weekend. But these types of seasons don’t come along that often, so we shouldn’t take it for granted.

Double corner blitzes

Speaking of the Gators defense, the unit again managed to look discombobulated against an undermanned LSU team led by a true freshman QB.

The game plan really confused me with as much as Todd Grantham blitzed. I get that you want to try and put the QB under pressure and make decisions quickly. But considering Max Johnson didn’t really show much arm strength, I would have thought Grantham would have played a lot more zone and forced Johnson to fit the ball in.

Now, that’s not really Grantham’s M.O. But at the same time, Dan Mullen is always talking about putting your players in position to succeed and clearly exotic corner blitzes aren’t the way to go.

There are two reasons for this. First, those blitzes take a ton of time to get to the QB. That allows even a freshman QB to make good decisions about where to throw the ball because he has a little bit more time. But the second reason is that Florida doesn’t seem to be able to execute Grantham’s blitzes without screwing something up.

On the 34-yard touchdown pass to Kayshon Boutte, both Marco Wilson and Kaiir Elam blitzed. This was clearly a miscommunication and the safeties rotated over to help Wilson, leaving a huge hole for Johnson to throw to Boutte for the touchdown.

I get that Grantham wants to create confusion and try and force a turnover. But at some point, you have to admit that your guys aren’t able to execute your scheme and simplify things. I’d much rather see Max Johnson have to drive his team all the way down the field rather than just giftwrap an easy touchdown throw because you’re unable to keep from shooting yourself in the foot.

Devonta Smith is hard enough to guard when you do everything right. LSU saw what happened against Alabama when you bust a bunch of coverages.

Can Grantham survive?

I doubt it.

Florida’s defense has been atrocious this season. It has directly cost the Gators both losses and has offset the offense that has been one of the best in the country.

I don’t think this is all Grantham’s fault, but that doesn’t really matter. At the end of the day, Mullen has the offense humming so he’s not in any danger. That means the buck stops with the defensive coordinator. 

Beyond the defense’s performance, Grantham has been slow/unable to adjust as things have fallen apart and defiant when asked about his scheme. There was a really interesting article on ESPN this week about former Auburn coach Gus Malzahn and how he insulated himself from learning while offenses innovated around him. The result is that Malzahn’s offenses at Auburn recently – his calling card – have really struggled.

I think you could say the same thing about Grantham. It just doesn’t look like he had adjusted as opponents have adjusted to him, and when he is questioned about it, he doesn’t show a whole lot of introspection about things that might get better. I think fans would settle for a “we aren’t playing well enough and that’s on me.” 

They haven’t gotten that from Grantham and that’s turned up the heat. The fact that he makes so much money I thought might save him, particularly in the times of COVID.

But as we’ve seen with Auburn ($21 million !!), boosters have a way with coming up with the dough. It probably helps that boosters are the most likely people to have made money when the stock market tanked in March and has come roaring back.

So if you want Grantham gone, I think you’re going to get your wish. The only way he stays is if Mullen wants him to stay. But that means another year with defensive performances like this and it’ll be the head coach who feels the heat.

SEC Championship

Florida has a chance against Alabama.

You always have a chance when you have a Heisman-level quarterback behind center. Florida had that in 2008 and 2009 against Alabama and went one for two. They definitely (definitely) did not in 2015 and 2016 and were exposed.

It’s unfortunate that Alabama found a Heisman-level quarterback of its own. Clearly quarterback play was a deciding factor in both Florida’s and Alabama’s wins over Georgia earlier this year, and so now we get the best two quarterbacks in the conference facing off.

But this is threading the needle for the Gators. The defense is unlikely to be able to stop Alabama in any meaningful way, meaning that Trask is going to have to score every time out.

Can he do it? Yes. Is it the likeliest scenario? No, not really.

That means we’re probably looking at an Alabama victory, but I actually don’t think it’s going to be as big as the 17-point spread suggests. Alabama is a better team, but they aren’t flawless (just look at their game vs. Ole Miss earlier in the season). 

The Gators have a shot. If you’re already counting them out, I think that’s a mistake.

Playoff hopes alive?

So if Florida can take care of business, can they make the playoff?

Florida surprisingly only fell one spot in the College Football Playoff rankings after the loss to LSU. But I suspect that had a lot to do with the committee doing CBS a solid so that they can bring in Florida viewers who still believe their team has an outside shot at getting in.

Here’s what it would take. 

1. A convincing win over Alabama.
2. A Texas A&M loss to Tennessee.
3. Notre Dame beating Clemson.
4. Northwestern beating Ohio State.

Alabama isn’t falling out of the top-four unless they get completely annihilated by Florida. Even then, I think the Tide get in. If Notre Dame can beat Clemson badly, maybe Florida jumps them but I’m not sure about that. And if Northwestern beats Ohio State, shouldn’t a 7-1 Wildcats team get the nod?

Here’s the reality. Had Florida lost to a good team last week, it likely would have had a chance. But to lose to a depleted LSU squad that just got demolished by Alabama is a stink that likely is going to take more than a week to remove.

That doesn’t mean I won’t be pulling hard for Tennessee (eww), Notre Dame (double eww) and Northwestern. We’ll know by the time the ball is kicked whether Florida even has an outside chance.

But to be honest, it’s a miracle we’re talking about having a chance anyway after last week. And weirder things have happened in college football.