The road hasn’t been kind to the Gators this season. Florida is 1-4 in neutral-site and away games, and the one win came against a bad South Florida team in a stadium that had more Gators fans in it than Bulls fans.
The last two times they’ve played away from the Swamp, they lost 34-7 to No. 1 Georgia and 40-17 to South Carolina.
Plus, the Gators have had some struggles against Missouri since they joined the SEC in 2012 despite probably having the more-talented roster in every meeting. UF is just 5-4 in conference matchups with the Tigers, and the four losses have all come by at least 19 points.
Those two trends, plus the general malaise that’s hovering over the program, have Gators fans feeling mostly pessimistic heading into Saturday’s game at Memorial Stadium.
The Gators have a chance to change their road and Missouri fortunes by winning on Saturday, which they are favored to do.
“Obviously, any time you are on the road in the SEC, it’s a challenge because of the environment that you go play in, the crowds, the energy that they bring and the quality of teams that you play in this league, from top to bottom in this league, are excellent football teams,” Florida coach Dan Mullen said. “All of that added together always creates a big challenge on the road.”
If they’re going to win their first conference game in 42 days, they’re probably going to have to do so by winning the trenches.
The Tigers (5-5, 2-4 SEC) are averaging 5.2 yards per carry, which is tied for third in the conference. They’re averaging more than 213 rushing yards per game over their last four contests.
Tyler Badie is their bell cow. He’s carried the ball 200 times for 1,239 yards, which leads the league and is fourth in the FBS. He’s produced four 200-plus-yard games this season, including two in SEC play.
“He’s a good back,” UF defensive end Zachary Carter said. “He’s a physical runner. He can make people miss. He has good vision and all that. We know what we are facing, and our guys have to be ready to play a very physical game. We have to execute and eliminate the missed tackles. If we do that, we should be fine.”
UF has given up an average of 266 rushing yards in its last three conference games. They can’t allow Badie to run wild and free to have a chance to win this game.
“Well, you’ve got to run to the ball,” Mullen said. “You’ve got to be sound. You’ve got to fit your gaps. You’ve got to come, and you’ve got to tackle. They give him the ball a lot. You look at their team, I don’t know that anybody else even gets the ball very much in the running game at all in number of carries.
“So, they’re going to feed him the ball a bunch, and he’s an extremely productive player. He can run with power, and I think he has elite speed as well. So, you’ve got to do a great job. You can’t let him get to that second level because he has the ability to hit a home run.”
Badie is also a receiving threat, as he’s caught a team-high 50 passes for 337 yards and four touchdowns. His 16 total touchdowns are tied for the most in the conference.
Missouri complements Badie’s impressive all-around game with a talented yet slightly erratic quarterback. Connor Bazelak had completed 68 percent of his passes for 2,318 yards and 15 touchdowns. However, he’s also thrown 10 interceptions, which ties him with Florida’s Emory Jones for the second-most interceptions in the league.
“The one big thing that I think he always brings to the table is toughness, the moxie that he has, his leadership,” Mullen said. “I think that’s such an important trait as a quarterback. When you watch him, obviously, he’s not afraid to run the ball, and he can. They’re not going to sit there and pound away at quarterback run with him, but he can do it if he has to. Then, in the pass game, he’s completing a high percentage of his passes.”
Outside of Badie, Bazelak’s primary targets are Keke Chism (32 receptions, 403 yards, two touchdowns) and Tauskie Dove (32 catches, 470 yards).
On the other side of the ball, Missouri is giving up 248.9 rushing yards per game and 5.8 yards per carry. Both of those stats rank last in the SEC by wide margins. They’ve also surrendered a league-worst 26 rushing touchdowns.
The Gators (5-5, 2-5), meanwhile, are tied for first in the country with six yards per carry.
If UF does have to throw the ball a lot, Missouri is tied for 34th in the country in passing defense. Safety Jaylon Carlies is tied for second in the conference with four interceptions, while nickelback Kris Abrams-Draine is tied for fourth with three interceptions.
This game pits two similar teams against each other. Both teams excel at running the ball but have struggled with interceptions from their quarterbacks. Both defenses have been decent at defending the pass but have struggled mightily against the ground game.
So, the defensive front that plays the best will probably win the game for their team.
Add that to the list of trends that the Gators will try to reverse on Saturday.