Florida will try to continue steady improvement in road game at Kentucky

Change is never linear. Cut down a tree and some rings will be thicker than others. Look at any stock chart and the daily changes are jagged within any months or years-long trends.

Florida is doing its best to defy that truth about the world. Their shakiest game was the opener against FAU. The Gators turned it over a couple of times and never completely pulled away even if the outcome was never in doubt. The next week they hit the jets, scoring five straight touchdowns to go up 35-3 at the half. The offense bogged down with more turnovers after the break, and the Bulls outscored UF 17-7 following intermission. The highs were higher than in the opener, but it wasn’t a complete game.

The Gators played their third subpar quarter in a row in falling behind 21-3 to Alabama, but it was after that point that they really began to hit their stride. They outscored the Tide 26-10 the rest of the way, using physicality to tire out the Bama defense in the process. The Tennessee game was another story of a fast acceleration wiping out a slow start, and the final margin could’ve been a lot bigger if the teams didn’t run so much that they only got four possessions each after halftime.

Emory Jones has shown the most visible improvement at the most visible position on the field. He has improved his completion percentage, yards per attempt, and passing efficiency in every successive outing while going from three turnover-worthy throws in each of his first two starts to just one mostly-not-his-fault pick against Alabama. He then had no obviously dangerous passes against Tennessee.

On defense, there are green shoots everywhere. Gervon Dexter is getting more disruptive by the week. Jeremiah Moon is becoming a revelation at middle linebacker, flashing some versatility in the injured Ventrell Miller’s stead.

The secondary is being asked to play more aggressively each week, and by that I mean in getting hands on and jamming receivers and not in blitzing from Ocala. Avery Helm went from “uh oh” after a blown coverage against FAU to remarkably solid in just four weeks. Rashad Torrence is everywhere. Jason Marshall is putting progressively better stuff on film. There are still some growing pains to be had with all the youth, but Kaiir Elam’s return will help ameliorate that.

Individual players (other than Jones) are the intraday wiggles on the stock chart of progress. The team taken as a whole, though, has improved every single week this year.

We’re about to find out something about the psyche of the 2021 Florida Gators with their trip to Lexington. It will be the first road game in a hostile environment — RayJay wasn’t exactly a hornet’s nest in Week 2 — while also being against an eminently beatable team.

You see, Kentucky is not a team that’s heading steadily upward. The Wildcats are 46th in SP+ right now after finishing 51st a year ago. There still is a noticeable preseason projection component to SP+ this early in the season, but the Wildcats aren’t blowing away what last year’s team did.

Quarterback Will Levis has been going the opposite direction of steadily upward. He lit up UL-Monroe for a passing efficiency of 230.9. His PE dropped to 146.3 in his first SEC contest against Mizzou, edged downward to 134.1 after throwing two picks against UT-Chattanooga, and plummeted to a miserable 98.0 in his first road start of the year at South Carolina.

You think Florida’s had a hard time generating turnovers? Have I got an opponent for you. UK lost three turnovers in their opener, two in their second game, and then three each in the subsequent two contests. They’ve been net negative in turnover margin every week. Their ability to take care of the ball isn’t improving either.

UK is still strongly devoted to the run when playing teams with a pulse, and UF has recommitted to the ground game with verve. There is a world in which both teams chew up clock with long rushing-based drives, limiting the total number of possessions in the contest.

Reducing the number of drives has the ability to raise the variance, which makes extreme outcomes more likely. It could swing in Florida’s way. Take last week when the Gators won the low-possession second half against Tennessee by 21 points. The margin probably would’ve been slimmer with literally any more time on the clock than there was. However higher variance could also swing toward Kentucky if the Wildcats can find a way to avoid turnovers for the first time this year. If UK gets a second-half lead, the Gators won’t have too many mulligans for bad drives to make up the deficit.

Kentucky is a little above average this year, better on defense than offense. Florida, so far, looks like a top ten team with a ceiling somewhere in the top five. Or, at least, that’s what they’ve looked like lately.

The Gators’ goal should be to keep the trend up and get a little bit better this week. The score may not look as nice as it did a week ago because Kentucky is better than Tennessee is and the potential for a game with relatively few drives is there.

However, the offense could improve yet a little more with the whole starting line healthy enough to go and hopefully its lightning-maker of a backup quarterback seeing some action again. It’ll be paired up with a defense that’s finding its way. Florida can and should control the game from start to finish. With some focus and execution, getting a little better is within their grasp, as is a commanding win in the bluegrass.

David Wunderlich
David Wunderlich is a born-and-raised Gator and a proud Florida alum. He has been writing about Florida and SEC football since 2006. He currently lives in Naples Italy, at least until the Navy stations his wife elsewhere. You can follow him on Twitter @Year2