Billy Napier’s squad is playing their best football entering the final two-game stretch of the 2022 season. The Florida Gators (6-4, 3-4 SEC) will travel to Nashville this Saturday to take on the Vanderbilt Commodores (4-6, 1-5 SEC).
Vanderbilt enters this game with momentum as well, snapping a 26-game SEC losing streak by defeating No.24 Kentucky a week ago. Vandy’s win total (4) marks the team’s highest since 2018. Clark Lea (Vandy HC) has done well through two seasons considering the hand he was dealt.
HISTORY
Week 12 marks the 56th meeting between Florida and Vanderbilt including the 29th in Nashville. Florida holds a 43-10-2 series lead, winning 30 of the last 31 meetings. The Gators have won 15-straight games against Vanderbilt in Nashville, dating back through 1992 (30-year span). The last time Florida and Vanderbilt met (Oct. 9th, 2021) was the last time Florida shut out an opponent (W, 42-0). This is the first meeting between Billy Napier and Clark Lea as head coaches. The Gators will look to extend their win streak over the Commodores to nine games this Saturday.
WEATHER
Billy Napier told the team they couldn’t talk about the weather, but he didn’t say I couldn’t talk about it. It’s going to be chilly in Nashville this Saturday with a low of 21 degrees and a high of 46. The 10-15 MPH winds will make it feel even colder inside FirstBank Stadium. Florida hasn’t played in cold weather this year, but I don’t expect it to be too much of a factor for either team. Napier will have this team prepared and he won’t listen to any excuses.
AJ SWANN vs MIKE WRIGHT
Vanderbilt has played two different QBs throughout the 2022 season. Mike Wright started the season for the Commodores but was replaced by AJ Swann in week three. Swann has been dealing with an injury the last few weeks and is questionable for the game this Saturday.
Swann is the better pocket passer of the two. The freshman QB has 10 touchdown passes and two interceptions this season.
Mike Wright provides Vandy’s offense with another serious rushing threat as he’s totaled 454 rushing yards and five touchdowns on just 55 carries.
Patrick Toney and this Florida Gators defense have the challenging task of preparing for two QBs in week 12. I expect to see Swann start if he’s healthy, but there’s always a possibility we see both in action this Saturday.
DON’T OVERLOOK
Vanderbilt has finally put together an offense that’s not impossible to watch as they rank 10th in the SEC in total offense, leading South Carolina, Missouri, Texas A&M, and Kentucky in yards per game. WR Will Sheppard is one playmaker that Florida needs to keep an eye on. He’s caught 47% of Vanderbilt’s touchdown passes (9 of 19). RB Ray Davis is another player to watch as he’s totaled over 1,000 yards and 8 touchdowns this season. The Gators need to take care of business in week 12 and not overlook the Commodores; they proved last week that they can compete in the SEC. The Gators have an important matchup the following week against the Florida State Seminoles, but they need to get through Vanderbilt first.
Florida is currently a 14-point favorite over Vanderbilt.
VANDY’S DEFENSE
Vanderbilt’s offense has improved but their defense ranks last in the SEC in total defense. Their passing defense has weighed them down this season as they give up 293 passing yards a game, the highest in the SEC. They are also one of the worst tackling teams in the country, ranking 117th in FBS according to PFF. That statistic does not fare well for Vandy as Florida has three rushers in the top 10 of the SEC in yards after contact (Richardson, Etienne, and Johnson). I don’t envision many problems with Florida moving the football against Vanderbilt.
The Gators can finish 4-4 in SEC play with a win at Vanderbilt.