For the first time in 35 days, the Gators (4-5, 2-5 SEC) will play a home game on Saturday when they host Samford (4-5, 3-4 SoCon) at noon.
Normally, this is the time when I’d offer you my five keys to victory. However, with this being an FCS opponent, there’s really only one key to victory this week. If the Gators play with passion and have their heads even 25 percent of the way into this game, they’ll win.
So instead, here are five things to watch for on Saturday. As usual, my score prediction is at the end.
1. Some competitive fire
The most disappointing part about the blowout loss to South Carolina wasn’t anything scheme-related or the way one or two position groups performed. It was the way that nobody on the Gators sideline seemed to care when they fell behind early. Nobody got into their teammates’ faces and tried to wake them up and tell them that how they were playing was unacceptable.
With the exception of a handful of players who noticeably played hard, it was as if the entire team was content with getting embarrassed on national television.
I get that there are a lot of potential distractions for this team right now, such as the firing of two assistant coaches and the hot-seat talk surrounding Dan Mullen. But the only way to make all of those discussions go away and get back to normal is for them to play to the best of their abilities and win some games. Otherwise, things will continue to compound and get worse by the week.
I don’t just want to see a win this week. I want to see a team that plays with enthusiasm and energy from the opening kickoff to the final snap.
2. Robinson’s DC debut
With only three games left in the regular season, I don’t expect to see anything drastically different from the Gators’ defense with linebackers coach Christian Robinson now calling the plays. But, Mullen didn’t fire Todd Grantham so that they could keep doing the exact same things, so there will be some wrinkles.
Plus, I’m interested to see what kind of feel Robinson has for play-calling. I think a lot of people criticized Grantham’s scheme, when, in reality, it was his play-calling that was to blame. Surely, Grantham had plays inside his playbook that were capable of stopping counter runs or some of the big passes that teams hit against them last year.
It’s a matter of knowing which play to call in a given situation. It’s about knowing when to blitz and when to drop seven guys into coverage. It’s about knowing when to play press coverage and when to play soft zone. Grantham didn’t do a very good job at that. I’m eager to see if Robinson can do better.
3. The offensive line
After starting the season off so promisingly, this unit hit rock bottom against South Carolina. They rushed for just 82 yards and 3.2 yards per carry against one of the worst rushing defenses in the SEC.
With graduate assistant Michael Sollenne now coaching the group and an FCS opponent lined up against them this week, they need to get back on track with a dominant performance.
I don’t care how many players are banged up or are sick; this is the type of team that Florida’s third string should be able to rush for 250-plus yards against.
The middle of the offensive line needs to start opening up big holes like they did earlier in the season. Otherwise, they’re going to continue to have to rely largely on their passing game, which hasn’t been a recipe for success due to Emory Jones’ and Anthony Richardson’s propensity to turn the ball over.
4. The young playmakers
Last week, highly regarded freshman receiver Marcus Burke made his first two career catches for 73 yards.
With injuries and illness being a problem at certain positions and the possibility of this game becoming a blowout early, we might get to see Burke and some more young players make an impact again this week.
Maybe Demarkcus Bowman will break off a long run and show us that explosiveness that we heard about throughout fall camp. Maybe tight end Nick Elksnis will make his first career catch this week and show us why his teammates spoke highly of him throughout the offseason.
With Richardson’s status for this week unknown due to a knee injury, perhaps we’ll get to see Jalen Kitna and/or Carlos Del Rio-Wilson make their collegiate debut.
Defensively, we haven’t seen much from linebacker Scooby Williams or safety Corey Collier despite them being two of the higher-ranked members of the 2021 class.
I want to walk out of the Swamp on Saturday feeling optimistic about what the future might hold, at least from a roster standpoint.
5. A win – no matter what it looks like
Coming into this season, the Samford game was one that most Gators fans probably expected to win by 50-plus points. And that very well might still happen.
But, given everything that these players, coaches and fans have been through over the last month, everybody in Gator Nation just needs to see the clock hit zero with the Gators having more points than the other guys. It doesn’t matter how impressive or how ugly of a win it is at this point.
They just need to lift this dark cloud that’s hovering over the program, and the only way to do that is to win. This is the only game left this season where the Gators have a 90-plus percent chance to win, so try to enjoy it as much as possible if they win.
Score prediction
Florida 38, Samford 10
The Gators should be able to run the ball at will against the Bulldogs, and they should be able to slow down a passing attack that’s averaging nearly 300 yards per game.
They’ll do both of those things well enough to win the game convincingly, though not in spectacular fashion.