As always, sports columns are not medical advice. Listen to your local health officials and the CDC.
If you’re reading this, you probably can’t wait for sports to come back. I can tell you that those of us writing for this site are in that boat too. Within the last week there has been some information building that shows what it’s going to take to allow college sports to happen again. Here is my best summary of the developments.
The danger
There are a lot of reasons why COVID-19 is such a terrible disease. One of the chief ones is that it can spread without people knowing they have it. While it’s a good thing for personal health that someone might catch the virus and not experience symptoms, it also means they can pass it on unknowingly.
There haven’t been many instances where an entire population that experienced an outbreak has been tested, but there have been a handful. The USS Theodore Roosevelt is the latest of them, and testing is wrapping up of all of the sailors on board.
About 60% of the positive tests from the TR have had no symptoms. This finding matches a couple of the other examples of 100% testing, from the Italian town of Vo’ Euganeo and the Diamond Princess cruise ship. More than half of the positive tests in that town and on that ship didn’t have symptoms either. A lot of folks out there have the disease and could spread it without having any clue.
On top of the ease of spread, COVID-19 is not just a few rough weeks for everyone who does experience symptoms. There is preliminary evidence that the disease and/or its complications can damage organs beyond just the lungs such as the kidney and heart. If we’re talking about athletes, organ damage could easily be the end of a career.
What we know is serious business, and there’s still a lot we don’t know. Caution is the order of the day.
The process
The rule of thumb is this: those who did the closing will do the opening.
Yesterday evening, the Trump Administration put out guidelines for how returning to normal might work. They involve places moving through three phases of opening back up. For our purposes here, the bullet points about “large venues” are the important part.
A location under lockdown/shelter-in-place orders is not even in Phase 1 yet. Certain benchmarks have to be met before a place could enter Phase 1. The large venue guidelines are as follows:
- Phase 1: can operate under strict physical distancing protocols
- Phase 2: can operate under moderate physical distancing protocols
- Phase 3: can operate under limited physical distancing protocols
What are strict, moderate, and limited physical distancing protocols, exactly? Good question. The answer may be out there, but if it is, I personally haven’t seen it. The presentation contains a number of vaguely defined terms, which I guess is befitting initial guidelines. It’s unclear to me how a sporting venue would enforce physical distancing if spectators were present, though. Even in Phase 3, the guidelines say, “low-risk populations should consider minimizing time spent in crowded environments”. That doesn’t sound like an unequivocal green light for capacity crowds at stadiums and arenas.
Some states will likely follow these guidelines. Some may adapt them or make up their own based on the judgment of their public health officials. The federal government has limited constitutional powers to enforce restrictions on commerce and movement within states, and as of today those powers remain unused. Every binding restriction in place right now has been done no higher than the state level, and the federal government doesn’t have the ability to step in and reverse those restrictions.
I say “no higher than” because localities can have their own restrictions beyond what states impose. For instance, on Wednesday the mayor of Los Angeles said he didn’t think he’d allow concerts or sporting events this calendar year. He can reverse that outlook if conditions change, but he can impose that ban even if the state of California okays sports to happen.
The decision makers
When the SEC Tournament was canceled, it wasn’t because the governor of Tennessee or mayor of Nashville said so. The call came from conference commissioner Greg Sankey. When March Madness went away, that decision came from the NCAA.
It’s important not to lose sight of that dynamic. If governments say yes to sports, the NCAA, conferences, and individual universities still have to decide to go for it. Those in charge of these institutions will have the final say.
When conference commissioners met with Vice President Pence this week, they conveyed the message that college sports won’t happen on closed campuses. To their credit, they’re holding the line on the “student” part of “student-athlete” coming first.
Texas A&M has already decided to do summer sessions online. If I’m getting the commissioners’ message correct, that means the Aggies won’t be participating in any summer minicamps. Which probably means no one else in the SEC will, so as not to create a disadvantage. Which means starting the season on time might already be lost if it’s judged that fall practice isn’t enough to prepare players’ bodies for the rigors of the season.
Looking out wider than the SEC, there are some schools that have later start times. Stanford, for instance, doesn’t start its fall semester until September 21. If they keep campus closed all summer as TAMU has already decided to do, then their team definitely won’t be able to start on time. Which means the Pac-12 can’t start on time. Which means no one can start on time if everyone’s going to stay in sync. Which may be moot anyway if Los Angeles and other cities with teams aren’t allowing sporting events.
It’s becoming clearer by the day why Chris Fowler’s “informed speculation” zeroed in on a season starting next February. If any FBS campuses don’t open in the fall, there go all the fall sports that institution sponsors. If any cities aren’t allowing sports this calendar year, the college teams in them would have to play only road or neutral site games.
Getting things going again will be a large coordination problem. As I discussed two weeks ago, there will be some hard decisions to make if virus hotspots flare up over the fall and winter as some public health experts are predicting. If any hit a college town or campus, that team will have to stop playing for a time. Maybe for the entire rest of the season. It’ll be impossible to know until and unless it happens.
I don’t want to see the season canceled entirely. I don’t know how many programs can weather the financial hit of losing a football season. States are facing gigantic revenue shortfalls with the economic hit of the pandemic. Unless the federal government puts together a sufficiently large aid package for states, they’re going to have to cut a lot of spending in a lot of places, including higher education. There won’t be any bailouts for athletic programs, unless alumni donors really step up to make it happen. Forget individual sports being cut; entire programs may shutter.
Lives and livelihoods are at stake everywhere, and there are no easy choices. If testing and tracing ramps up such that the country can move into Phase 3 or beyond come early next year, then college sports are looking better. If not, well, I don’t want to think about what that means for a lot more than just NCAA activities.