Perhaps lost in the understandable frustration over losing the final three games of 2020 is the fact that three of the Gators’ four losses were by one score or less. Given how Dan Mullen treated the bowl as an exhibition and almost something of a glorified spring game, you could even argue that the three true losses where the team was trying its best were all close.
Either way, it’s a reversal of fortunes for Mullen as UF’s head coach. He won all of the first five close games he was involved in and six of his first seven. Then last fall he lost three in a row.
What’s going on with Mullen’s close games at Florida? Here’s my best explanation.
Not all close games are equal
You’d be forgiven for wiping the memory of it, but Jim McElwain made his living on close games for most of his tenure. He began his career at UF going 9-1 in close games up through the 2017 Kentucky game.
I evaluated all of those close games. He had one upset win, over LSU in 2016. Three were close wins over teams that were within a score of Florida in the final SP+ ratings: over Tennessee in 2016 and 2017 and LSU in 2015. They were close games that should’ve been close, in other words.
Six of them, however, were games over teams that UF should’ve beaten handily. These contests include a couple of close wins over Vandy, a couple more over Kentucky, a squeaker over East Carolina, and an overtime win over FAU. The ECU win required a red zone fumble to prevent the Pirates from tying the game late, and the ’17 comeback over UK was the one where the Wildcats twice left a receiver uncovered for a touchdown.
A lot of the close wins were fool’s gold, in other words, where the Gators played with their food and occasionally needed heroic or improbable plays to pull out the victory. After hitting 9-1 in his first ten close games, McElwain would lose his next pair of one-score contests to LSU (17-16) and Texas A&M (19-17). You know the story from there.
McElwain’s best achievement by far was the 2015 Ole Miss win, and it’s not accounted for in his close wins analysis. Neither will Mullen’s, well, I was going to call it his “effort” in the Cotton Bowl, but it won’t show up either. Close games aren’t everything and do require context. Here goes.
The Near-Upset
I once again looked to the final SP+ ratings (as pulled from the F/+ ratings at Football Outsiders) to determine what should or shouldn’t have been a close game. The SP+ number represents how much a team should beat (or lose to) a perfectly average team. Mullen’s UF squads have been remarkably consistent, finishing at 23.0 in 2018, 24.0 in 2019, and 23.9 in 2020. The difference between two teams’ SP+ figures gives you an expected margin for a game played by them on a neutral field.
Because Florida has finished ninth, eighth, and sixth, respectively, in Mullen’s first three campaigns, UF has only been more than a one-score underdog once. That time, of course, was the 2020 SEC Championship Game against Alabama. The Gators did fall behind by as much as 17 points shortly before halftime, but a 14-0 run in the third quarter got them back in it. With better clock management from the head coach, they could’ve had a shot at tying or winning at the end.
Though it was ultimately a loss, Florida lost by six as an 11.7-point underdog by final SP+. It’s about as positive as a loss gets.
The Tossups
These are the games that should have been close, as the teams’ final SP+ ratings were within eight points of each other. The numbers in parenthesis are the margins between UF’s final rating and the opponent’s. A negative number indicates SP+ had the opponent higher-rated than UF.
2018 Mississippi State (-0.2): This one was a true tossup if played on a neutral field. Bonus points, then, to Florida for pulling out a seven-point win on the road. It was close throughout, and the final margin was the largest of the game.
2018 LSU (-1.2): This one was another that was close throughout where the final margin was the game’s largest. Brad Stewart’s late pick-six sealed an eight-point win for the good guys.
2019 Georgia (-2.8): Though the final score was close, the game wasn’t really throughout. UGA led by as much as 13, and only a score with under four minutes to go in the contest landed the game on this list. Technically that’s enough time for UF to score again with its two timeouts and a stop, but as was the rule for the game, UGA converted a third down after both Florida timeouts were spent to seal it.
2020 Texas A&M (4.1): The Gators built an 11-point lead early in the second half, but a fumble recovery was the only stop they’d get the rest of the way. Three of their final four drives included a punt, field goal, and lost fumble to allow A&M to come back and win.
Shouldn’t Have Been Close
These are the ones where SP+ thought Florida should’ve won by more than one score.
2018 South Carolina (8.1): This one only just falls outside the window to be in the above section. The Gamecocks built a 17-point lead at 31-14 late in the third quarter, but Feleipe Franks pulled off the comeback and shushed the crowd in the process a week after being benched against Missouri.
2019 Miami (14.4): In doubt throughout with the largest margin being a seven-point Hurricane lead, this one didn’t end until Miami turned it over on downs with 12 seconds to go.
2019 Kentucky (14.9): Franks’s Florida career ended and Kyle Trask’s legend was born. UK led 21-10 through three quarters only to back way off defensively without knowing what to expect from Trask. Florida went TD-punt-TD-TD in the final frame to etch an eight-point win.
2019 Virginia (17.7): The Cavaliers got a backdoor cover to move a 15-point margin into close game territory. While Florida was in control much of the way, the Gators never completely put UVA away either as evidenced by the garbage time score making it close.
2020 LSU (18.3): UF was looking ahead to Atlanta and let a very shorthanded Tiger team steal a win.
The final count
Mullen is 0-1 in mismatches going against him, but it was a good showing at least.
He’s 2-2 in close games that were tossups, which is about what you’d expect. That said, only the two 2018 games were what you think of when you think of a close game in a tossup. The Gators were never in position to take the ’19 game against Georgia, and they could’ve beaten A&M with just one more stop.
Mullen is 4-1 in close games that were mismatches in UF’s favor. Only one of them was a misleading result due to garbage time scoring, that being the Orange Bowl victory over Virginia. The ’18 South Carolina and ’19 Kentucky games saw the Gators in extreme danger facing two or three-score deficits after the midway point of the third quarter. The ’20 LSU loss is a mirror image of the ’19 Miami win, as they were close throughout but with different outcomes in relation to UF.
Mullen has only had one of the final category in two of his three years, which is more than can be said for McElwain. Three in 2019 is less great, though one was the Virginia backdoor cover. It’s possible to lay some blame for three of those five games being close at the feet of Franks, though the coaches are the ones who were putting him out there over Trask.
In the end Mullen is 6-4 in close games, though he was 6-1 through his first two seasons. Two of last fall’s three losses were either in an underdog scenario or even game, with just one coming as an upset. Going forward, Mullen should look to minimize the first and third categories by being so good he’s almost never overmatched by that much and by taking care of business against mediocre or worse competition.