If you’re wondering if the Texas game was a real turning point or a blip on the radar, you don’t have long to wait to get a good signal about that question. Florida goes on the road to face a 5-0 Texas A&M team this weekend. Billy Napier has yet to defeat a team on the road that finished the year above .500 as UF head coach.
If you widen the lens a bit from “on the road” to “away from home”, then he only has one such win: last year’s Gasparilla Bowl victory over Tulane. He’s still ofer against power conference competition with winning records away from the Swamp.
I went through all the losses to eventual above .500 teams to see where the struggles have come from. I separated them into three categories. You might disagree on some of the slotting, but here is what I have. I did include LSU and Miami from this year because, though neither has even played six games yet, it’s very likely they will finish the season above .500.
Overmatched
2022, 42-20 to Georgia (15-0)
Georgia ran up a 21-0 lead on the way to going into halftime up 28-3. After the break, UF went TD-FG-TD while the Bulldogs turned it over twice to cut the lead to 28-20. UGA got back on track with a touchdown of its own just before the end of the 3rd quarter, while Florida only turned it over on downs from there.
2023, 43-20 to Georgia (15-0)
UF scored the game’s first points on its opening drive with a touchdown pass from Graham Mertz to Tre Wilson. The Gators wouldn’t score again until, down 36-7 to enter the fourth quarter, Mertz threw and ran for a couple of garbage time scores. UGA outclassed the Gators in basically every way.
Unprepared
2022, 31-24 to Vanderbilt (5-7)
The Gators were so out of it, they made actual sleepwalkers look heavily caffeinated. When the ‘Dores cashed in an interception for a touchdown on their first offensive play to go up 28-12 late in the 3rd, it was clear the Gators were in deep trouble. They tried snapping out of it with a pair of fourth quarter touchdowns, the first being a 74-yard pass to Daejon Reynolds in the only standout game of his UF career. Alas, Anthony Richardson’s short Hail Mary from the Vandy 34-yard-line sailed out of the end zone high.
2022, 30-3 to Oregon State (10-3)
Florida was plagued with opt-outs in this one, and it looked like everyone who did show up had wanted to opt out too. The less said about this game, the better.
2023, 24-11 to Utah (8-5)
This was a strange one, with the Gators having no real shot to win despite outgaining the Utes 346-270 and only losing the turnover battle 1-0. Utah’s offense basically either scored or did nothing, while UF missed a field goal, threw a pick, and turned it over on downs three times. The Utes led as much as 24-3 in the third quarter before Florida drove 98 yards in nearly seven minutes to get the final score in place. That drive, plus UF’s only other series in the final frame that went just 33 yards in ten plays for a turnover on downs, chewed up more than ten minutes of the fourth quarter’s game clock and together couldn’t have even gotten the score to a tie.
2023, 33-14 to Kentucky (7-6)
Three words: Ray Davis game. Enough said.
2024, 49-17 to Texas (13-3)
With third string QB Aidan Warner getting the start, the defense appeared to make a business decision to take the week off. It was 42-0 early in the third quarter in this shellacking, and only a holding penalty on one drive and a lost fumble on another kept the ‘Horns from running up the score further.
2025, 26-7 to Miami (5-0 at present)
I debated whether to put this one in this category or the next. The defense was well prepared but simply ran out of gas in the second half of the fourth quarter. The offense was just so bad, with the offensive line thoroughly dominated and the Hurricanes defense playing like they knew which plays were coming most of the time. Half the team was unprepared to compete, and as it was the head coach’s half, I put it here.
Good effort, bad outcome
2022, 38-33 to Tennessee (11-2)
The Gators had a 14-10 lead until shortly before the half, but the defense allowed a 99-yard touchdown drive to let the Vols go up 17-14 at the break. UF was only down ten when the fourth quarter began, an unlikely but doable comeback scenario. The wheels came off for a bit though: Richardson lost a fumble in the red zone, after which UT marched 87 yards down the field to take a 38-21 lead with just under eight minutes to go.
UF did score two touchdowns in those final eight minutes to make the score look closer, but the latter of them arrived with just 17 seconds left on the clock. Florida managed to snare the ensuing onside kick, but AR’s Hail Mary attempt went way short and was picked because he was being hit while throwing.
2022, 45-38 to FSU (10-3)
A bit like the Tennessee game earlier in the year, UF took the lead in the second quarter. It hung in there better too, never falling behind by more than two scores. However, the defense had no answers for Jordan Travis, getting just one stop on five drives after halftime. FSU gifted UF an extra chance early on the final drive of the game with a pass interference on an incomplete pass on 4th & 18, but Richardson’s final fling into the end zone on 4th & 12 hit the turf after only five of six pass rushers got blocked on the play.
2023, 52-35 to LSU (10-3)
Like the 2019 LSU game, Florida went punch-for-punch with the eventual Heisman winner despite having nearly zero defensive resistance. The Gators pulled within three points with 10:27 to go at 38-35 Tigers, but then LSU went 75 yards in three plays to extend the lead before tacking on an insurance touchdown after the Gators turned it over on downs.
2023, 33-31 to Missouri (11-2)
This was easily the closest Napier has come to beating a good team on the road. Trey Smack kicked a field goal with 1:36 to go to give the team a one-point lead. The defense got the Tigers into a 4th & 17 situation at their own 33-yard-line, but it allowed a 27-yard pass completion to Mizzou’s best and most obvious target Luther Burden. A couple of more pass completions made the eventual 30-yard game winning field goal easier for Harrison Mevis.
2024, 23-17 to Tennessee (10-3)
This one was a combo of questionable coaching and bad luck. A substitution infraction incurring a ten-second runoff wiped a field goal off the board right before the half, and earlier in the second quarter, Napier called a jet sweep to Tre Wilson on 4th & inches. But also, Mertz fumbled it away on a QB sneak on the Vols’ 1-yard-line and then went out for the year hurt on a routine completion. DJ Lagway made some plays but was pretty rough overall as would be expected for a true freshman playing on the road. Trey Smack’s missed 47-yard field goal in overtime was also unfortunate, but Tennessee scored a touchdown on its turn anyway.
2024, 34-20 to Georgia (11-3)
More bad luck struck the team in this one, as Lagway went down with a hamstring injury after playing well and building a 10-3 lead. The defense kept the team in the game well enough for the offense to tie it at 20 midway through the 4th quarter, but then UGA scored, Warner immediately threw a pick, and a 7-yard touchdown drive for UGA sealed the game away.
2025, 20-10 to LSU (4-1 at present)
The Tigers only won 13-10 in terms of offensive points. If Lagway didn’t have a complete mental breakdown and throw five picks, one of which was returned for a score, then Florida probably wins this game. It’s on Napier, as the play caller and something of a quarterbacks coach, to get his signal caller ready to play and set him up for success. But, it’s also a game where more or less everyone but one player performed well enough to win.
Conclusions
Only two of these 13 games were ones that any UF coach would’ve truly struggled to win given the team as composed on game day. Having six games in four seasons in the “Unprepared” bucket is pretty galling, though Napier at least cut it from two a year in 2022-23 to one a year (so far) in 2024-25.
There undeniably has been some bad luck in losses, with two of them last year seeing the game’s starting quarterback go down to injury. Four of the ones from the final category also were problems with the awful defenses from Napier’s first two seasons, an issue that was his fault but has been largely fixed since Game 5 of last year.
Having done this, I would put a greater likelihood of UF winning at Kyle Field than I would have prior. Napier has gotten better on the road in the aggregate against good teams over time, though it’s not a straight line up as the offensive performance against Miami attests.
But to adapt the Anna Karenina principle: all of Napier’s big wins have been alike, while each big loss was unhappy in its own way. There’s always something bad that happens that wasn’t pure misfortune, usually several somethings, and with the possible exception of last year’s Georgia game, Napier’s fingerprints are on those faults.
With regards to victories over good teams away from home, he’s well into “James Franklin against top ten teams” territory: I’ll believe it when I see it. There’s no better time for him to prove he can win one of these than this Saturday.