No matter what nomenclature we end up using for the Gators’ 2018 signees in light of last year’s eligibility mulligan, the 2021 season will be the fourth year for Dan Mullen’s transitional class. It’s a pivotal year because it will define how it goes down in program history.
For comparison’s sake, I lined it up against the other four transitional classes UF has had in the last 20 years. Sad as it is to think about, the 21st Century has seen the Gators play football under six different head coaches. Stable, it has not been. Here’s how things shake out.
A word on definitions: anyone who started at least half of the games in at least one season went into the starters category. Anyone who graduated without doing so ended up in the backups category. Players who transferred out, took medical disqualifications, were dismissed, didn’t qualify, or just left the team for some reason went into the attrition column. As we’ll see, there can be some blurry lines.
Ron Zook, 2002
Starters (10, 45.5%): WR Dallas Baker, WR Jemalle Cornelius, LB Channing Crowder, DB Brian Crum, RB Ciatrick Fason, OL Randy Hand, DL Steven Harris, WR/DB Reggie Lewis, DL Ray McDonald, RB DeShawn Wynn
Backups (6, 27.3%): DB Nick Brooks, OL Todd Bunce, WR Terrence Holmes, DB Jermaine McCollum, DB Tremaine McCollum, WR Kenneth Tookes
Attrition (6, 27.3%): OL Ryan Carter, medical DQ; DL Tauren Charles, dismissed; QB Gavin Dickey, baseball; QB Patrick Dosh, transfer; DL MacKenzie Pierre, transfer; RB Jimtavis Walker, transfer
With 22 signees, Zook’s transitional class is the largest of the five we’re looking at today. Despite that fact, it also has the fewest number who transferred out. It was a different era when transferring wasn’t as easy and seamless as it is today, but it’s still notable.
Urban Meyer, 2005
Starters (6, 33.3%): RB Kestahn Moore, WR Louis Murphy, WR David Nelson, DB Reggie Nelson, K Jonathan Phillips, LB Ryan Stamper
Backups: (1, 5.6%): DB Dorian Munroe
Attrition (11, 61.1%): DB Avery Atkins, dismissed; LB Kalvin Baker, transfer; WR Nyan Boateng, transfer; OL Simon Codrington, medical DQ; LB Jon Demps, left team; TE Brian Ellis, non-qualifier; LB Darryl Gresham, left team; OL Eddie Haupt, medical DQ; QB Josh Portis, transfer; OL Ronnie Wilson, dismissed
Meyer’s transitional class, meanwhile, was the smallest of the five. It ended up with six starters, but only half of them — Murphy, Reggie Nelson, and Stamper — were real standouts.
When the defense took a dip Meyer’s third campaign in 2007, a sheer lack of numbers from this class was a key contribution to the fall. With JUCO transfer Reggie Nelson going pro after 2006, Stamper was the only big defensive contributor from the entire class to participate in ’07.
Will Muschamp, 2011
Starters (7, 36.8%): TE Clay Burton, K/P Kyle Christy, DB Jabari Gorman, FB Hunter Joyer, DB Loucheiz Purifoy, DB Marcus Roberson, OL Trip Thurman
Backups (3, 15.8%): ATH Chris Johnson, DB/WR Valdez Showers, TE Tevin Westbrook
Attrition (9, 47.4%): RB Mike Blakely, transfer; QB Jacoby Brissett, transfer; QB Jeff Driskel, transfer; OL Tommy Jordan, medical DQ; TE AC Leonard, transfer; WR Javares McRoy, transfer; LB Graham Stewart, transfer; DB De’Ante Saunders, transfer; WR Ja’Juan Story, transfer
The strict definitions of the categories undersell the class some, as Driskel and Saunders were multi-year starters before transferring out. If you include them in the starters bucket, then you can swap the numbers and percentages for that and the attrition bucket above.
This class had a rocky start, as Blakely and McRoy transferred out mere months after signing. Leonard, Stewart, and Story all transferred in the offseason between 2011 and 2012, and Jordan never played while battling injuries during those first two seasons. That’s right about a third of the class wiped out with a quickness, but the rest of it mostly held together.
Jim McElwain, 2015
Starters (7, 29.2%): OL Nick Buchanan, OL Martez Ivey, DL Cece Jefferson, OL Fred Johnson, OL Tyler Jordan, RB Jordan Scarlett, DL Jabari Zuniga
Backups (1, 4.8%): DL Luke Ancrum
Attrition (13, 61.9%): WR Antonio Callaway, dismissed; RB Jordan Cronkrite, transfer; DL Keivonnis Davis, dismissed; OL Richerd Desir-Jones, transfer; TE Daniel Imatorbhebhe, transfer; DL Andrew Ivie, medical DQ; WR Kalif Jackson, transfer; LB Rayshad Jackson, transfer; LB Kylan Johnson, transfer; TE Camrin Knight, transfer; RB D’Anfernee McGriff, non-qualifier; OL Brandon Sandifer, transfer; DB Chris Williamson, transfer
Callaway started two years before his dismissal, so he’d make an eighth starter (38.1%) if you wish to count him as such. The attrition rate remains above half at 57.1%, however, if you do so. Kylan Johnson almost made the starter category as well, as he started six of the 13 games in 2016.
Dan Mullen, 2018
Starters (7, 35%): WR Jacob Copeland, DB Trey Dean, OL Richard Gouraige, QB Emory Jones (projected), K Evan McPherson, RB Dameon Pierce, TE Kyle Pitts
Backups (5, 25%): DB/LB Amari Burney, DL Andrew Chatfield, TE/DL Dante Lang, OL Griffin McDowell, LB David Reese
Attrition (8, 40%): OL Noah Banks, medical DQ; OL Chris Bleich, transfer; RB Iverson Clement, transfer; DB John Huggins, dismissed; TE Lucas Krull, transfer; DL Malik Langham, transfer; Randy Russell, medical DQ; WR Justin Watkins, dismissed
Jones hasn’t technically earned a starting spot yet, but given Mullen’s longstanding preference for seniority and experience, only injury will prevent him from being the starter in 2021. I feel comfortable putting him in the first category. Bleich started eight games in 2019, so he would’ve qualified for the starter’s category if he didn’t leave.
Dean gets starting designation for being an emergency injury replacement player as a freshman; he started more games that year (nine) than he has in the last two combined (seven). He does project as a starting safety this year, though.
Adding it up
Zook’s class is the gold standard of transitional classes. It’s right there with Muschamp’s for percentage of players turned starters, but I’d take 2002’s eventual starters over 2011’s. A lot of the names on Zook’s list played major roles for the 2006 national championship team, so that’s case closed right there.
If there’s one big takeaway from this analysis, it’s that lame duck coaches make for bad transitional classes. Zook was never going to get fired after the 2003 season, but he was seen as a real hot seat guy heading into ’04. Muschamp was even more of one after he managed to keep his job after 2013.
Accordingly, the weakest of these classes were the ones that followed those two. Meyer’s and McElwain’s transitional classes were the only ones with greater than 50% attrition, and they had the smallest starters percentages among the first four of these classes whether you make affordances for pre-transfer starters or not. By contrast the transitional classes for Zook and Muschamp, who took over after their predecessors walked away for differing reasons while in zero danger of being fired, fared much better.
McElwain wasn’t on the hot seat after winning the division in his first two years; he signed his highest-rated class in 2017 in fact. He also wasn’t seen as firmly entrenched either, as it was possible at the time to see how much of those SEC East crowns were made with fool’s gold.
Mullen wasn’t fighting the full-on lame duck effect per se, but working against him was the fact that McElwain was never going to be an elite recruiter. The starting rate for Mullen’s transitional class is a bit low for this many years in, though it’s a nicer-looking 40% if you include Bleich as a starter.
Looking ahead, it’s not clear how many of the five in the Mullen class’s backups category have a real chance at starting.
It feels like that ship has sailed for Burney. Mohamoud Diabate started 50% more games than Burney did in 2020. Plus, Ty’Ron Hopper and, one would figure, highly-rated ’20 signee Derek Wingo will be nipping at Burney’s heels this year. Lang switched positions from tight end to defensive end last year, which doesn’t usually lead to a starting gig. Chatfield played more in 2020 than prior, but he’s too small to be a full-time defensive end and the Buck linebacker spot is crowded. There have yet to be any reports about McDowell or Reese pushing for real playing time, though we’ll see what spring practice brings.
The attrition rate has crept up for Mullen, and it would only take two of the backups to transfer for playing time elsewhere to hit the 50% mark. It is bad luck that two players had to take medical hardships, although as a JUCO transfer Banks would’ve left after 2019 anyway.
Mullen’s starter rate ended up okay in the end, and in theory it could still improve. One catch for ’21 is that Pitts and McPherson have left for the NFL, so only five starters remain. Pierce’s starting job in 2020 was also on the iffy side. He got fewer than nine carries per game in a pass-heavy offense with a three-man tailback rotation, and he ended up under five yards per rush. Malik Davis had more combined rushing and receiving yards than Pierce did on 26 fewer touches, and 5-star Clemson transfer Demarkcus Bowman may beat everyone out for RB1 this year.
Ultimately Jones will seal the legacy for the class. His commitment was the first truly big one that Mullen secured after taking the job, and he plays the most important position on the field. It’s not a super high bar to beat out Driskel for best signal caller from any of these transitional classes, but true excellence would change the entire perception of the class. Attrition and odd fits are expected; Mullen even signed fewer than he had room for to avoid burning scholarship spots simply for the sake of using them.
A star turn from Jones would put the class in a realm of its own this century for UF. As great as it would be to get more from Burney or Chatfield, quarterbacks define football in the current era. Mullen’s transitional class won’t touch Zook’s for top-to-bottom quality, but Jones can give it something the Zooker’s never had.