Breaking down the Florida Gators Bowl game chances

Tuesday night’s College Football Playoff Rankings couldn’t have gone any better for the Gators.

Heading into this Tuesday we were looking at in terms of Bowl games.

Sugar Bowl — Takes the highest-ranked SEC team that is not in the College Football Playoff.
Orange Bowl — Takes the highest-ranked team between Notre Dame, The Big Ten or the SEC that is not in the College Football Playoff (or contractually obligated to the Sugar Bowl and Rose Bowls)
Cotton Bowl — Takes the highest-ranked team remaining regardless of the conference as well as the highest-ranked Group of Five team.

The Gators needed to get ahead of Minnesota and Alabama to feel good about their chances of getting to a New Year’s Six Bowl game. Thanks to Iowa and Auburn Florida vaulted ahead of both of those teams and now are all but entirely assured to make a New Year’s Six Bowl game.

Florida will go to the Sugar Bowl IF….
Georgia beats LSU and both teams remain in the top four.

The top three teams in the CFP Poll will likely remain in the playoff regardless of what happens this weekend. It’s hard to fathom LSU, Ohio State or defending national champion Clemson dropping out of the playoff given their records. That means that only Georgia is playing for a playoff spot this weekend. If the Dawgs beat LSU they’re in and if by our above logic, LSU is already in, then that means two SEC teams in the Playoff.

The Sugar Bowl takes the highest-ranked SEC team that is not in the College Football Playoff and in this scenario that would be Florida taking on a team from the Big 12, right now that would be Oklahoma — a rematch of the 2008 National Championship.

Florida will go to the Orange Bowl IF…
Ohio State, LSU, and Clemson all win. That would leave the fourth playoff spot open for Oklahoma or Utah. Also, Florida would likely jump Wisconsin (assuming their loss to Ohio State). That would leave the Gators as the highest-rated, non-playoff team from the Big Ten. Wisconsin would get a Rose Bowl berth.

If all of the favorites take care of business this week that would mean Georgia is on the outside looking in. There would be a serious debate about who would get that fourth playoff spot between Utah and Oklahoma.

That wouldn’t change much for the Gators, however. In this scenario, the Sugar Bowl would be contractually obligated to take the highest-rated SEC team not in the playoff — Georgia. Florida would likely stay right at No. 9 in the country or even hop the loser of Baylor-Oklahoma. That would leave the Gators as the highest-rated team from the SEC/Big 12/ Notre Dame for the Orange Bowl to select after the contractual obligations are filled.

This is the most likely scenario and the Gators would, as of now, face Virginia in the Orange Bowl. The Cavaliers have to play Clemson in the ACC Championship this weekend. Virginia is ranked No. 23 and the Orange Bowl is contractually obligated to take the highest-ranked, non-playoff ACC team. If there is no team that is ranked the Orange Bowl Committee selects any ACC team they wish, as long as that team is bowl eligible.

Florida will go to the Cotton Bowl IF…
The above scenario happens but the Gators don’t jump Wisconsin. In that scenario, Wisconsin would go to the Orange Bowl and the Gators would go to the Cotton Bowl to face the highest-ranked Group of Five team, — currently Memphis.

As we stand right now the most likely bowl scenario is for the Gators to play in the Orange Bowl against Virginia. That’s a very good matchup for the Gators in terms of ability to win, get to 11 games and win back-to-back New Year’s Six Bowl games. It’s not going to do well on television, it’s not a great game in terms of drawing a national audience but that’s what happens when you have contractual obligations. Regardless, it will be a great end to the season for the Gators and South Florida Gator fans will love to have their team in their backyard.

Nick de la Torre
A South Florida native, Nick developed a passion for all things sports at a very young age. His love for baseball was solidified when he saw Al Leiter’s no-hitter for the Marlins live in May of 1996. He was able to play baseball in college but quickly realized there isn’t much of a market for short, slow outfielders that hit around the Mendoza line. Wanting to continue with sports in some capacity he studied journalism at the University of Central Florida. Nick got his first start in the business as an intern for a website covering all things related to the NFL draft before spending two seasons covering the Florida football team at Bleacher Report. That job led him to GatorCountry. When he isn’t covering Gator sports, Nick enjoys hitting way too many shots on the golf course, attempting to keep up with his favorite t.v. shows and watching the Heat, Dolphins and Marlins. Follow him on twitter @NickdelatorreGC

1 COMMENT

  1. This is wrong IMO. EVEN if Florida doesn’t jump Wisconsin in the final poll, the Rose Bowl is contractually obligated to take the highest ranked Big 10 team which would be Wisconsin so the Gators would go to the Orange Bowl, NOT Wisconsin (Nick states the Gators would go to the Cotton Bowl IF they don’t jump Wisconsin). The only way the Gators don’t get the Orange Bowl is if both Penn State and Wisconsin are ahead of the Gators in the final poll (assuming OSU gets in the CFP)