Crunching the Numbers: Florida Gators vs New Mexico State

The Jim McElwain era as officially begun in Gainesville, Fla. with the Florida Gators defeating New Mexico State in typical first game of the season fashion. The 63-13 shellacking of the Aggies was expected, as the Gators used the game to build confidence, get out early season jitters, and allow players who committed some sort of malfeasance during the off-season to sit-out and not have the game outcome affected. Needless to say, Saturday was no-surprise under regular circumstances.

But, we know that Saturday was not just a regular game. It was the first game of Jim McElwain’s tenure where he has Houdini-like expectations to help turn the Gators offense around, while not sacrificing on the defensive side of the ball as fans expect a top-10 defense each year. Oh, and the special teams are expected to be better. Basically the charge of Gator Nation is simple: Get rid of the bad, keep the good, and change it – quickly.

As I told you last week, it will be hard to create any sort of correlation, causation, or real trend analysis until the Gators play a few games (especially teams not expected to be ranked as the 120^th best team in the country in 2015).

But, let’s look at a few things that stood out on offense and defense.

Offense

In a shock to most Gator fans who watched Will Muschamp’s football teams play, the Gators elected to receive on kick-off, something that did not happen at all in the 2014 season, so the Gators quickly saw the new Jim McElwain offense — something they have been clamoring for for months.

The Gators got off to a slow start with their only punt of the game on the first drive (probably had a bunch of fans thinking, “Oh, crap, not this again”, but got the pace up for the rest of the time scoring on every drive, expect for one second quarter fumble, until the clock ran out in the fourth quarter.

The Gators had numbers that you would expect out of Florida playing a team like New Mexico State. 61 points; 28 first downs; 224 yards rushing; 382 yards passing; 7.67 yards per play; and a whole host of statistics that on paper show that this team means business on offense.

Let’s take a deeper dive into some of the numbers:

• During the game, the Gators scored touchdowns on eight drives with the average touchdown scoring drive going on averaged 62.875 yards on only 6.625 plays – meaning that the average nearly 9.5 yards per play on scoring touchdown drives. Explosive.
• The Gators spread the ball out, with 14 different players receiving a pass, one of whom wasn’t starting wide receiver Ahmad Fulwood. Of the 384 yards, 234 yards went to wide receivers, (and Vernon Hargreaves) 100 yards went to tight ends, and 50 yards went to running backs. The 100 yards by tight ends in a game are the most since Omarius Hines and Jordan Reed did so against Tennessee in 2012.
• Further, we saw a marked change in offensive philosophies in passing the ball on first down. In the four years under Will Muschamp, the Gators only threw the ball on first down 30% of time. On Saturday, it was an even 50% split, something I told you to expect back when he was hired in December.
• The rushing attack was strong as expected with Kelvin Taylor and freshmen Jordan Scarlett and Jordan Cronkrite getting the lion’s share of carries. The three main running backs averaged 5.33 yards per carry on 21 carries with each scoring a touchdown. The eight rushes in the first game of their career by Jordan Scarlett are the most by a Gators true freshman running back since before 2008.
• Will Grier and Treon Harris both played very well with Grier averaging 10.93 yards per completion and Treon Harris averaged 15.36 yards per completions with Grier completing 88.2% of his passes and Treon Harris completing 73.7%. The quarterback battle that was too lose to call during the entire off-season is now even more complicated. When will there be a winner?

 Defense

 The Gators defense was stout, as expected, because they are very talented and they are playing New Mexico State. But no matter whom they were playing, the fact that the Gators only gave up 200 yards in the game is incredible, but what’s more, is that NMSU had -1 yard of offense in the entire second half.

• Jon Bullard and Alex Anzalone, along with Jalen Tabor, lead the team in tackles. After watching the tape, Bullard has shown that he is the top defensive lineman, and in my opinion plays as a better defensive tackle, and Alex Anzalone played as the best linebacker. Bullard and Anzalone both did great in assignments, getting off of blocks, and ending the play near the ball. Bullard had a great sack playing defensive tackle and should thrive in that role.
• The Gators did struggle getting into the backfield, however. They did have three sacks, which puts them in the top-fifth of NCAA teams (28^th), but only ended the game with four total tackles for loss, which is ranked 89^th in the NCAA.
• Vernon Hargreaves interception shows exactly what he is ranked as the top cornerback in the country. He closed, realized the ball was overthrown, grabbed the ball at the highest spot, and then watched his blocks en route to a big return.
• Cece Jefferson showed why he was a five-star player. He was great getting off his blocks and showed a lot of brute strength. He will get better with his vision and his initial reaction time and could be a freshman All-American.
• The Gators did end the game with only 200 yards allowed, which is good for 19^th in the NCAA and first in the SEC, and only allowed 13 points, which is good for third in the SEC. They did exactly what they could, while missing usual three starters.

What Does It Mean?

Ultimately, this game probably doesn’t mean much if we are being frank. The Gators won big, as they were expected to.

But, it does mean a few things and let’s look at those.

• The fact that the Gators only had one penalty is huge. They had 10 to start the 2014 season, 10 to start 2013, 14 to start to 2012, and 9 to start 2011. Needless to say, it is a welcome change. With five new starters on the offensive line, the fact that the Gators had no false starts is a testament to the work of Mike Summers and Jim McElwain.
• The Gators ranked highly after their first game last season under Will Muschamp and Kurt Roper, but this team looked different on offense. They look disciplined in routes, play calling looked intentional, holes were made, and quarterbacks made high percentage throws, but were not afraid to thread the needle like Will Grier did on his first touchdown pass to C’yontai Lewis. Ultimately, they looked comfortable and that is important.
• But we cannot put too much stock into this game. New Mexico State is one of the worst teams in the FBS. The Gators will need to improve on the offensive line, particularly on creating more holes and in pulling, the defensive line will need to get more penetration into the backfield, and they will need to try to cause more turnovers on defense to help this young offense.

Looking Forward to Game Two

 The Gators face a tougher challenge this weekend with East Carolina — maybe. The Pirates, who the Gators beat in the Birmingham Bowl in January, struggled against Towson (an FCS team) as they struggle to replace their starting quarterback, top receiver, and other top players from last year’s team, as well as, their prolific offensive coordinator Lincoln Reilly.

In order to win, the Gators need to capitalize on a few things.

• The Gators rank sixth in the country in third down conversions (.667), while the Pirates rank 91^st in stopping third down (.467). The Gators need to focus on these conversions and taking advantage of a weak defense that ranks 73^rd in the country.
• ECU had seven tackles for loss against Towson, so the Gators offensive line will need to secure a few of those blocks that they missed against New Mexico State.
• East Carolina running back Chris Hairston leads the country in touchdowns, so locking him down will be important. He is a speed running back and is good in open spaces. The Gators will need to lookout for delayed draw plays and runs out of the shotgun formation. The Gators let NMSU score a touchdown on a delayed hand-off run, so extra practice may be needed. ECU doesn’t have a great offensive line, so this play will likely show-up more often than simple draws or counters.
• Finally, make the Pirates make mistakes. In their first game, they had eight penalties for 102 penalty yards. If the Gators can draw false starts, offsides, and illegal contact penalties, they should ease by the Pirates.

Vegas Line

The super smart folks in Las Vegas have the Gators as 20 point favorites with an over/under of 54 points, which means they expect a 37-17 win. The statistics, talent, coaching, and momentum, to me, has the Gators scoring more than 37 points against a weak Pirates defense and i think the Gators defense should not allow more than 14 points to a rather one dimensional offense.

Prediction: Gators 45 | Pirates  14