2019-20 College football bowl score projections

Every year since 2010, I have used a formula of my own devising to project the scores of every college football bowl game. It has proven to be fairly accurate, going 61.2% correct straight up and 53.2% correct against the spread in the nine combined years. It’s my understanding that 55% right is the threshold for making money off of picking games — I don’t do it and wouldn’t recommend it to anyone else — but I’ve bested 55% ATS in five of nine years.

Here is a link to my 2015 post about the projections with links to the first five years if you want to look at the track record by year. The site I posted the projections on in 2016 and 2017 is no longer with us, so here’s a spreadsheet of them if you are so inclined. I posted last year’s to Gator Country here.

The formula is fairly simple, using points scored and allowed and adjusting for opponent. It largely ignores FCS games and throws out points scored in overtime. Tossing OT points may not seem like a big deal, but most games don’t go to overtime, and the overtime rules encourage scoring more than the regulation ones do. Plus sometimes teams can score or give up a noticeable percentage of their season-long totals in multi-overtime games. There are no adjustments for coaching changes (which are hard to model) or players sitting out bowls (which I don’t have a good way to do).

The point spreads below reflect the consensus seen on OddsShark on the morning of publishing. I have always used the spreads on the day before bowls begin, so that’s not changing here.

One last note: the team specifically mentioned in the “Projection” column is the one picked to win straight up. I round off the scores to the nearest point to make it easier to read except when doing so makes the ATS pick look wrong or it’d make the projected score appear to be a tie.

If you want to see the scores, just scroll down to the table. Before then, I’m going to make a few comments on some select games. Happy bowl season!

Boca Raton: I have the home team FAU Owls winning close despite SMU being a field goal betting favorite, but I don’t trust this pick with Lane Kiffin gone.

Hawaii Bowl: The previous smallest margin of victory that my formula has spat out was 0.04 for the 2015 New Orleans bowl between Louisiana Tech and Arkansas State. LA Tech won that one by 19, naturally. This bowl has a 0.03-point edge going to the home team Hawaii over BYU, which would be the new record holder if not for the…

Pinstripe Bowl: With a projected margin of victory of 0.01 for Wake Forest over Michigan State, this is the new record holder. It’s going to be hard to beat this one. And hard to watch this one, given the teams involved.

Orange Bowl: It’s all about the Florida defense. The formula has the Gators scoring their season-long average 33 points while Virginia falls short of its average by 11 points.

Sun: I wish I had a way to account for players sitting out because FSU without Cam Akers does not inspire confidence. Then again, Herm Edwards wants to win every game 17-13, so maybe he finds a way to let the Seminoles hang around and cover the 4.5-point spread.

Fiesta and Peach Bowls: The formula sees a national title game between LSU and Ohio State. Out of curiosity, I ran projections for both potential matchups for LSU. I didn’t bother with Oklahoma since the formula likes the Tigers over the Sooners by 10.8 points. In each case, it has LSU losing: 44-33 to Ohio State and 38-30 to Clemson. After all the other bowls are done, I will run a formal projection for the national title game and append it to the end of the table with stats from the bowls included.