Good morning, Gator Nation: OK, all this talk about Super Conferences got me thinking about what the landscape of college football could look like in the not-too-distant future.
1. HOW BIG WOULD THE SUPER CONFERENCES BE? Well, I’ve seen one plan (CBSSports.com) that creates five 16-school conferences. That would mean the Big Ten (11) would need to add five schools, the Pacific-10 would need to add six and the SEC, ACC and Big 12 would need to add four schools each. And some of those conferences would be raiding schools from others – for instance, the Big Ten could raid the Big 12 for schools. If the conferences go to 16 teams, then they would likely divide into two eight-school divisions, meaning the conferences could play round-robin games and then schedule five non-conference games. Of course, that would mean some teams would have four conference home games and others would have three.
2. SO WHAT DOES THE MEAN FOR THE MORTAL CONFERENCES? The Big East, the Mid-American, Conference USA, the Mountain West, the WAC and the Sun Belt all will be affected in one way or another. If expansion does occur, it wouldn’t surprise me if those six remaining conferences would boycott the big boys and instead schedule interleague games between themselves. More than likely, however, they would just see where the dust settles and then agree to schedule the big paycheck games.
3. SO WHAT COULD THE BIG TEN LOOK LIKE WITH 16 SCHOOLS? Well, would Notre Dame agree to give up its independence and join the Big Ten if Boston College came along as well? Then add Pittsburgh (for Penn State), Rutgers and Connecticut. So here’s the two divisions of the The Really Big 16:
East: Boston College, Connecticut, Rutgers, Pittsburgh, Penn State, Notre Dame, Indiana, Purdue
West: Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern, Illinois, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa
4. SO WHAT HAPPENS TO THE BIG EAST? If the Big Ten raided the Big East above, that would leave the Big East with football-playing schools Syracuse, West Virginia, Louisville, Cincinnati and South Florida. Since the ACC loses Boston College, it could easily add those five Big East schools and be at 16 schools.
5. SO IS THAT THE ACC? No, because Clemson and Georgia Tech are going to be invited to join the SEC. So replace them with UCF and East Carolina and the ACC looks like this:
North: Syracuse, West Virginia, Louisville, Cincinnati, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Maryland, East Carolina
South: Florida State, Miami, South Florida, UCF, Duke, N.C. State, North Carolina, Wake Forest
6. OK, WHAT DOES THE SEC DO? If I’m Mike Slive, I’ve decided to cherry pick the ACC and the Big 12 for my four teams. In addition to Clemson and Georgia Tech from the ACC, I dip into the Big 12 and grab Oklahoma and Texas. So the SEC looks like this:
East: Florida, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Clemson, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Kentucky
West: Auburn, Alabama, Mississippi State, Mississippi, Louisiana State, Arkansas, Texas, Oklahoma
6. POOR, POOR BIG 12: Sure, if you take two tradition-laden programs like Texas and Oklahoma away from a league and give them to another, it has to affect how Madison Avenue perceives you. Plus, if Colorado opts for the Pac-10, you lose a major city like Denver. So you shore up the Big 12 by adding teams like SMU and TCU to strengthen the Dallas-Fort Worth market. You invite Houston and Tulsa and you add Air Force, Wyoming and Colorado State to fortify the Denver market and give yourself footprints in the Rockies. So let’s see, the THE PLAINS 16 could look like this:
North: Missouri, Iowa State, Nebraska, Kansas, Kansas State, Air Force, Wyoming, Colorado State
South: Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, Baylor, Texas Tech, SMU, TCU, Houston, Tulsa
7. WHICH LEAVES THE PAC-16: The Pacific-10 just needs to add six teams and it has an attractive bunch to choose from: Colorado, Brigham Young, Utah, Boise State, Fresno State, San Diego State, UNLV, Nevada, UTEP and Hawaii. Five are easy – Colorado, BYU, Utah, Boise State and Fresno State. Among the other five, UNLV and San Diego State are the most attractive but you have room for just one. So roll the dice: UNLV. The Pac-16:
North: Washington, Washington State, Oregon, Oregon State, California, Stanford, Fresno State, Boise State
South: USC, UCLA, UNLV, Brigham Young, Utah, Colorado, Arizona, Arizona State
8. WHICH LEAVES THESE LEFTOVERS: The Mid-American Conference and Sun Belt Conference are the only conferences which are not touched by the falling dominoes from the Big Ten expansion. After losing Boise State and Fresno State, the WAC is left with Hawaii, Nevada, Idaho, Louisiana Tech, Utah State, New Mexico State and San Jose State. The Mountain West loses seven of its nine schools, with San Diego State and New Mexico remaining. Conference USA, too, is badly stripped, losing East Carolina, UCF, Houston, SMU and Tulsa. However, several schools are starting up Division I programs: Old Dominion, South Alabama, Georgia State, Lamar, Texas-San Antonio and Charlotte. And perhaps Montana and Villanova could be convinced to take a step upward. Plus, let’s not forget Army and Navy. So what could the rest of the landscape eventually look like?
Western Athletic (14): Hawaii, Nevada, Idaho, Utah State, New Mexico State, San Jose State, New Mexico, San Diego State, UTEP, North Texas, Texas-San Antonio, Rice, Lamar, Arkansas State
Sun Belt (16): Louisiana Tech, Southern Mississippi, UAB, Memphis, Tulane, South Alabama, Florida Atlantic, Florida International, Troy, Middle Tennessee, Louisiana-Monroe, Louisiana-Lafayette, Western Kentucky, Georgia State, Charlotte, Old Dominion
Mid-American (16): Ohio, Temple, Bowling Green, Kent State, Buffalo, Akron, Miami (Ohio), Central Michigan, Northern Illinois, Western Michigan, Toledo, Ball State, Eastern Michigan, Marshall, Army, Navy
9. WOULD IT SURPRISE YOU? If Notre Dame, with the financial backing of a merged Comcast and NBC, doesn’t go out and build its own Super Conference with these schools: Boston College, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Northwestern, Stanford, Southern California, Brigham Young, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Texas, Oklahoma, Villanova, Air Force, Rutgers and Duke?
10. REMEMBER THIS: When Notre Dame was helping to negotiate the CFA TV contract with ABC, it was at the same time working on its exclusive deal with NBC.
Later Gators,
John Fineran