By JOHN PATTON
The college football season doesn’t even begin until September, but it’s never too early to forecast games, is it?
Beginning today, Gator County is getting out the crystal ball and projecting how the 2010 season will play out, week by week. Each “week” we will profile Florida’s game and five others that we feel are the top games that week in the SEC. We’ll also offer our picks in the other games we don’t profile.
Remember, we’re just predicting here. Of course, all bets are off if certain players do not come through preseason practice because of grades, illness or NCAA issues.
Those are things you can’t predict.
WEEK ONE (Sept. 4)
MIAMI (OHIO) AT FLORIDA
Breakdown: This should be a nice, relaxing way for the John Brantley Era to begin. “The other Miami” is coming off a 1-11 season with a defense that allowed at least 35 points seven times in 2009. The RedHawks had serious issues against the run, allowing 30 rushing touchdowns. This begs the question: When it is midway through the fourth quarter and the Gator reserves are getting their opportunity to play, which freshman – quarterback Trey Burton or tailback Mack Brown are the best bets – will be the first in his class to score?
Player of the game: Running back Jeff Demps will carry 13 times for 155 yards and a pair of touchdowns to lead a balanced attack that will see at least three Gators rush for 70-plus yards.
The pick: Florida 63, Miami (Ohio) 10.
NORTH CAROLINA vs. LSU IN ATLANTA
Breakdown: Expect a defensive struggle as early-season games generally don’t favor the offenses and these two teams have eight defenders who could be selected in the first two rounds of the April 2011 NFL Draft. The Tar Heels boast perhaps the most talent in the nation on defense, led by defensive tackle Marvin Austin, middle linebacker Quan Sturdivant, defensive end Robert Quinn, cornerback Kendric Burney, linebacker Bruce Carter and safety Deunta Williams. The Tigers will counter with pro-ready prospects in cornerback Patrick Peterson, arguably the nation’s best at the position, and linebacker Kelvin Sheppard. And it’s not like the two defenses will have an Arkansas- or Houston-type offense on the other side. North Carolina ranked 108th in total offense and 93rd in scoring last season while LSU ranked 11th in the SEC in rushing and got inconsistent play out of quarterback Jordan Jefferson in 2009.
Player of the game: Burney will grab two interceptions (one for UNC’s only touchdown), showing the nation he is right at about the same level as Peterson, who will grab a pick himself.
The pick: North Carolina 13, Louisiana State 10.
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AT SOUTH CAROLINA (Sept. 2)
Breakdown: Two coaches with Gator ties lock up here when the Ol’ Ball Coach welcomes in former Florida assistant Larry Fedora. The Gamecocks will be the favorites, but Fedora’s 2009 Golden Eagles ranked 31st nationally in offense, despite serious injury issues. Conversely, the Southern Miss defense could make much-maligned South Carolina quarterback Stephen Garcia look like an All-American, as the USM secondary has allowed 46 touchdown passes over the last two seasons. Fortunately for the Golden Eagles, the Gamecocks had just one game where they scored more than 16 points after Oct. 10 last year, a stretch spanning seven games. On the positive side, during that 2-5 span (which included games against offensively gifted Alabama, Arkansas, Florida and Clemson), only Tennessee put more than 24 points on the board.
Player of the game: Garcia will complete 27 of 35 passes for 310 yards with three touchdowns and one interception.
The pick: South Carolina 28, Southern Mississippi 22.
KENTUCKY AT LOUISVILLE
Breakdown: Kentucky has, by far, the easiest non-conference schedule of any team in the SEC. Want proof? Either the Cardinals (4-8 in 2009) or Akron (3-9) are the Wildcats’ toughest non-conference foe. Not counting his one-game stint as Florida’s interim coach at the Peach Bowl in between the Ron Zook and Urban Meyer eras, this is Charlie Strong’s head coaching debut, and he should end up a keeper for the Cardinals. Plus, from his Gator days, Strong also knows plenty about defending UK standouts Randall Cobb, a wide receiver/Wildcat quarterback, and Derrick Locke, a speedy running back. Sadly for Strong, he doesn’t have the same players running his schemes in Louisville as he had in Gainesville. Offensively, UK’s unsteady quarterback situation involving Mike Hartline, Morgan Newton and Ryan Mossakowski is enviable to the Cards, whose Adam Froman (the projected starter), Justin Burke and Will Stein combined to thrown 11 interceptions in nine games.
Player of the game: Cobb will catch a touchdown pass, run for another out of the Wildcat formation and set up a third score on a return.
The pick: Kentucky 31, Louisville 10.
NORTHWESTERN AT VANDERBILT
Breakdown: One of the best linebackers in school history, Pat Fitzgerald, has Northwestern 17-9 (including 10-6 in the Big 10) the last two seasons, and this team might be the best of the three. The Wildcats should be 6-0 heading into a very winnable game on Oct. 23 against visiting Michigan State. Vanderbilt, meanwhile, is coming off the sudden retirement of coach Bobby Johnson and must improve an offense that ranked 110th overall in 2009. After finishing 2009 with eight straight losses, the Commodores likely will be 0-4 heading into an Oct. 9 game with visiting Eastern Michigan and might be looking at a 1-11 season. However, with potential All-SEC players in running back/return man Warren Norman and linebacker Chris Marve, Vandy could sneak in an upset or two. This game might be more competitive in a Brain Bowl format.
Player of the game: Northwestern senior linebacker Quentin Davie will record nine tackles, force a fumble and recover another to lead the Wildcats.
The pick: Northwestern 34, Vanderbilt 14
LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE AT GEORGIA
Breakdown: Well, we had to pick five, and because the first start of new Georgia quarterback Aaron Murray is a bit more compelling than breaking down Mississippi State vs. Memphis, this fills out the quintet. The Rajin’ Cajuns finished 6-6 last season, including a 17-15 victory against Kansas State. However, they also gave up at least 48 points to Nebraska, Florida Atlantic and Troy. Traditionally, Lafayette has had play-making special teams’ units, blocking 41 kicks since 2002. However, this shouldn’t prove to be much of a challenge for the Bulldogs, new quarterback or not. Georgia scored at least 30 points in all but one of their final seven games of 2009.
Player of the game: Bulldogs’ junior receiver A.J. Green will catch seven passes for 113 yards and two touchdowns to help Murray’s debut go smoothly.
The pick: Georgia 41, Louisiana-Lafayette 13.
The rest of the games: Alabama 56, San Jose State 6; Arkansas 51, Tennessee Tech 14; Auburn 34, Arkansas State 8; Mississippi State 27, Memphis 13; Mississippi 35, Jacksonville State 6; Tennessee 48, Tennessee-Martin 12.