Thursday brought news that a lot of Gator fans were probably hoping wouldn’t come yet were dreading nonetheless: highly-rated 2018 quarterback recruit Matt Corral decommitted from Florida.
Corral is a 4-star pro-style prospect according to the 247 Sports Composite. He had committed to Jim McElwain and his staff back in July out of Long Beach, California. His departure from the 2018 class leaves it with no quarterbacks, which leaves the program in a precarious position behind center. Feleipe Franks impressed no one last fall, while the other options at the position Kyle Trask and Jake Allen were both 3-star recruits who haven’t played a snap in college.
While it’s a blow to the program to lose such a coveted prospect, it’s probably for the best. Both Corral and Florida will probably be better off in the long run without each other because Corral is not a good fit for Dan Mullen’s offense.
Though Corral is not a pocket statue by any stretch, he’s definitely a pocket passer. He averaged a little over five carries per game from his sophomore year and on, achieving a career low with 4.2 rushes per game as a senior. I don’t know if those figures include sacks, but if they do, then his rushing attempts per game are even lower than that.
It is true that Mullen can coach up an elite passer. He proved that with Dak Prescott, who threw a lot more in college than I think a lot of non-Mississippi State fans realize. Prescott attempted 30.5 passes per game his junior year and 36.7 his senior year.
Even so, Prescott still carried the ball quite a bit. He averaged 12, 16, and 12 carries per game, respectively, in his final three years in Starkville. While those totals do include sacks, MSU allowed fewer than two sacks per game in the first two of those years and two and a half per game in the third. Prescott was still at or above ten rushes a game even without sacks in his totals.
As an offensive coordinator or head coach, Mullen has only worked with two quarterbacks who averaged a similar number of carries per game or less than what Corral did in high school: Chris Leak and Tyler Russell.
While Leak did lead Florida to a national championship, UF couldn’t crack 30 points per game with him as the starter for Mullen. The offense never fully took off, and Leak’s better campaign as a senior had him throwing for 8.1 yards per attempt with a passing efficiency of 144.9. Those numbers are OK but not great. Tim Tebow easily bested both those figures even in Steve Addazio’s offense in 2009.
Russell took over the Mississippi State starting job as a junior in 2012, putting up 7.4 yards per attempt with a passing efficiency of 135.4 while completing under 60 percent of his passes. He went down with a concussion in the first game of 2013, and he ended up losing the job to Prescott while out. Though Russell did start a couple of late-season games that Prescott missed, he was out the season’s last two games with a shoulder injury. The Bulldog offense didn’t fire on all cylinders with Russell, who almost never registered a rushing attempt that wasn’t a sack.
It’s possible that it might’ve been a different story with Corral at Florida, but Leak was a 5-star recruit and Russell was a 4-star recruit. Both were highly rated out of high school, and both never fulfilled their promise in Mullen’s system.
Corral is going to Ole Miss, where he will run Phil Longo’s variant of the Air Raid. It’s the sort of offense in which a pocket passer can put up ridiculous numbers. Jordan Ta’amu, a 3-star dual-threat JUCO transfer, came in for the injured Shea Patterson this fall and threw for 9.7 yards per attempt with a 164.5 passing efficiency in the back half of the season. Corral has a higher ceiling, so he may do even better. And with Patterson having transferred to Michigan, the door is open for Corral to start right away if he can beat out Ta’amu.
Without Corral out of the picture, Florida can now focus entirely on dual threat guys who will better fit Mullen’s offense. As Andrew and Nick discussed on this week’s podcast, there is some work to do as UF seeks to sign two quarterbacks this class. None of the guys currently on the roster really fit Mullen’s system all that well either, so while they may play in the short term as a stopgap, Florida needs to find its quarterback of the future now.
The top targets that Mullen is seeking are Justin Fields and Emory Jones, the Nos. 1 and 4 rated dual threat quarterbacks, respectively, by the 247 Sports Composite. Fields is committed to Georgia and Jones to Ohio State, which means Mullen will be wielding the play-right-away card heavily with both. UGA is riding true freshman Jake Fromm to the College Football Playoff right now, while redshirt freshman Dwayne Haskins appears to be a lock to replace J.T. Barrett in Columbus. If Fields and Jones are ready to play at the college level, either or both could beat out anyone Florida has at quarterback.
If the Gators can get even one of those guys, it’ll probably work out better than trying to fit Corral to the system and the system to Corral. For Corral’s part, he’ll be much better suited to the offense at Ole Miss.
Florida fans don’t have to think too far back to remember watching John Brantley struggle in a spread option followed by Jeff Driskel struggling in a pro-set. Having them play in systems that weren’t meant for them didn’t do those guys or the program any favors.
It always stings to see a top talent decommit, especially at quarterback, but it probably is for the best for both Corral and Florida that they parted ways now.