The new 247 Sports Team Talent Composite finally released at the end of last week. It’s like the annual Composite, where the company aggregates each team’s player ratings from the major recruiting services, only it’s applied to the entire roster instead of just the new recruiting class. It’s only been around since 2015, so it’s not as well known or established as the annual recruiting ratings. I think it’s of more use, generally, since players increasingly come and go but who they signed with is a data point that’ll never change.
The Gators are seventh in the TTC, the same rank as a year ago. However, their total team points are up slightly, and they’re very close to No. 5 LSU and No. 6 Oklahoma. Last year they were in a near-tie with No. 6 LSU, No. 8 Notre Dame, and No. 9 Oklahoma. What’s changed is that last year’s No. 6 Texas fell a lot and the Irish slid to a lesser degree.
So, there really only are four teams that are considerably ahead of where UF is now. They’re the ones you’d expect: Georgia, Alabama, Ohio State, and Clemson. We’re in a new era where those four are distancing themselves, and it’s showing up in the annual College Football Playoff final fours.
In 2015 and 2016, Bama was way out ahead in the TTC with only USC (yes, really) not behind them by a mile. In 2017 the Tide was still a comfortable No. 1, but now Ohio State was catching up and with nearby lurkers USC, Georgia, and FSU (no one ever said Jimbo couldn’t recruit). In 2018 the Buckeyes claimed the top spot after a major talent exodus from Tuscaloosa, but Bama and UGA were close behind with USC in its customary close-but-not-that-close spot. By 2019, those top three were entrenched with only USC and LSU in anything resembling shouting distance.
Last year Clemson finally got up to fourth after signing a monster class, but it was still more in the range USC had been in than up and challenging Georgia, Alabama, and Ohio State. I used that order because UGA took the top spot in 2020 finally after a half-decade of highly rated classes from Kirby Smart.
Now this year UGA is still on top, and it became the first team I’m aware of to break the 1,000-point mark in the TTC. The 2017 Crimson Tide was less than three points away from a grand and might’ve been above it at some point; the TTC ratings do change sometimes when players leave programs.
This fall Bama is second overall and camped out in the 970s, which is approximately where the second-place team tends to be. Ohio State and Clemson are in the 920s-930s, which is that spot USC used to hold before Clay Helton’s recruiting declined.
UF broke 880 for the first time and is less than 17 points behind LSU and just over ten behind Oklahoma, so those are gaps that are easily overcome. They’re the sort of thing where the margin could be covered by who’s at the end of the bench and whether a team’s specialists had recruiting ratings or were pure walk-ons. The difference in points is less than 2%.
This is the second straight year that Dan Mullen has had his team well above the 850 mark and the first where he’s been closer to 900 than 850. While he has improved recruiting over the McElwain regime by the numerical ratings, the transfer portal is still a big deal. Four of the five top-rated players on the roster initially signed elsewhere. They are, in order, Justin Shorter (No. 1 highest rated), Demarkcus Bowman (3), Brenton Cox (4), and Lorenzo Lingard (5). Only Gervon Dexter (2) breaks up the list.
Now, I know something jumped out at you from that list. Cox was the only one who played a truly major role last year. Shorter was a reserve with fewer catches than one of the running backs, Lingard barely played outside special teams, and Bowman was at Clemson. And, for that matter, Dexter was a raw true freshman. Mullen had a top ten team last year with an elite offense (before the Cotton Bowl debacle, anyway) despite not getting a ton from his highest-rated players.
Flash forward to this year. Cox is more of a complete player now that he’s had his first full offseason with the team. Lingard and Bowman have been turning heads in practice in a way that Lingard, at least, didn’t last year. Fellow players are calling Dexter a beast. Shorter figures to be at least the third or fourth option, provided the bowl game drops don’t carry forward.
Shorter probably will never live up to the 5-star billing, but the other four are on their ways. It’s still the preseason for a few more days, so we’re still in the time period when a thousand ifs carry a lot of weight. Just think about it, though. What kind of team might Mullen roll out there if he actually is getting major contributions from that many former 5-stars this time around?
Yes, it still all depends on Emory Jones, the offensive line, and whether the defense can, unlike last year, find its collective rears with both hands. I think the Gators will be fine on all of those fronts; hopefully I’m right about that.
But also keep in mind that for a few different reasons — injury recovery timelines and pandemic-related development setbacks chief among them — Florida had probably its best team since 2012 last year without getting much from its most talented players outside of Cox. We still haven’t yet seen the ceiling of Mullen in Gainesville.