News broke on Friday that the NCAA is looking at raising the annual initial counters limit above 25 due to expected increased rates of transfers. That’s a really big deal.
I’ve written about initial counters in depth before, but here’s the basic gist. Under current rules, programs can add 25 new scholarship players per academic year. Early enrollees can count toward either the year already in progress or towards the upcoming one. The former is what’s happening when we talk about “back counting” in recruiting math: a 2022 class early enrollee can “back count” to the 2021-22 academic year if the program didn’t use all of its 2021 initial counters. The only exception is someone like Diwun Black, who signed in 2019, went directly to JUCO, and then transferred to UF. He was an initial counter in ’19 when he signed but isn’t one again this year.
Dan Mullen was ahead of where everyone else would probably go in the one-time transfer exemption era that is now dawning. He hadn’t maxed out his initial counters on signing day prior to the 2021 cycle as a result of leaving some scholarships on the board in his 2018 transitional class. He did that because he was rushed to put together a class before the very first December signing day and didn’t want to take guys just to take guys.
In the most recent cycle, however, he left several spots open specifically to have room for transfers to bolster the roster in key spots. UF signed no one on the February signing day and actually let a couple of commits go between December and February. The big, screaming need at defensive tackle was the top priority, and the Gators landed Antonio Valentino and Daquan Newkirk in January before the second signing day.
Mullen still had a couple of initial counters to work with after that, though, and they went unfilled seven months ago. It turned out to be a wise move since UF added Jadarrius Perkins and Elijah Blades to a relatively green corner group, and then Jaydon Hill, one of two returning players with any real game experience, went down to an ACL tear in fall camp.
Only a handful of players announce intentions to transfer right after the season but wait until summer to do so, almost always so they can graduate in May. Most summer transfers don’t decide to make a move until after spring practice, so it’s hard to know who’ll be available. That makes leaving open spots for transfers something of a gamble, but it’s a calculated risk. Some positions almost never see transfers — offensive tackle is one, unfortunately for UF’s recent needs — but there are some number of good defensive backs who move around every year.
Mullen may have been a year earlier than many of his peers, perhaps because of past success with the portal, but others aren’t far behind. Oklahoma’s Lincoln Riley, for instance, said he’d sign fewer high school recruits if the 25 cap for initial counters isn’t raised.
If the NCAA didn’t raise the 25 initial counters cap, there would be a collective action problem afoot. The major programs that are able to attract transfers would hold spots open for them, as Mullen has done and Riley said he would. In doing so, it would ultimately reduce the total number of scholarships given out to high school recruits each year once the trickle-down effects finished. The number of total players in the FBS pool would shrink as the number of transfers went up.
It might turn out well initially for teams in the bottom half of the talent spectrum, as some players that would’ve been prospects Nos. 21-25 in the big boys’ classes would end up down there. However, it could easily end up turning the G5 into a de facto farm system for the top programs, where many of those players who excel end up transferring to those big boy programs a couple of years into their careers instead of starting there in the first place.
While some premier programs might ultimately be okay with that kind of setup, I don’t think the majority of the sport’s power brokers would be. It certainly would go against the NCAA’s self image, hence the prospective rule change.
The reports say that there will be a one-time quick fix for this year, raising the cap by some uniform number, to allow them time to craft a long-term rule. One of the options is to grant extra initial counters based on how many players transfer out of a program, which at first glance sounds better to me than a blanket raise of the cap. Increasing it with no heed to how many players have left sounds like a recipe for forcing low-performing players out via shady means like questionable medical DQs or just inviting them to quit the team. There still would be the issue of programs possibly forcing guys to transfer, but there are potential downsides no matter what you do.
I don’t know how much the new system with the one-time transfer rule and the proposed initial counters adjustment will affect Florida in the near term. One thing that’s been remarkable about Mullen’s tenure in Gainesville is that basically no high-profile players have wanted to transfer out.
Feleipe Franks is the only one who would qualify as high-profile, but only did it after being passed up by a better player. Chris Bleich was starting, I guess, though he wasn’t performing all that well yet. He’s about the only disgruntled transfer I’m aware of. Antonneous Clayton needed a new start, but that happens sometimes. The others who left were the ones like Rayshad Jackson, CJ McWilliams, and James Houston who sought playing time elsewhere. There’s been nothing like Tyrique Stevenson, who chose to leave a starting spot at UGA to finish his career at Miami (which is where he’s from, to be fair).
So I don’t expect to see the Gators regularly losing starters. High profile signees at high profile positions have so far been willing to wait and develop if there were older guys ahead of them. The three top-rated recruits in the 2018 class were Emory Jones, Richard Gouraige, and Jacob Copeland; Jones and Copeland were willing to be reserves until this year, and Gouraige had to wait until now to be the starter at his favored position of left tackle.
UF may get a few extra spots thanks to a Kylan Johnson or TJ Moore seeking playing time, and Mullen has worked the portal well. Getting to land productive transfers without having to sacrifice the ability to sign high school recruits as happened in this last cycle would be even better. The new rule will probably be a good thing for Mullen’s Florida.