With Florida’s practice session on hold due to spring break, there hasn’t been a lot going on in Gatorland lately. Perhaps ironically, all of the newcomers to the program this year make it harder to write anything beyond roster change rundowns. Yes, there’s more new than ever, but also there’s more uncertainty than ever. Absent actual activities happening, there’s just not a ton to go on right now.
So, I’m going to take the moment to talk about the conference realignment stuff that’s going on in the western half of the country right now. I wouldn’t be surprised if you’ve not paid close attention to it, but there are some very important things going on for the future of the sport.
Briefly, a couple of things you already know. The SEC shocked everyone with its stealth additions of Oklahoma and Texas. The Big Ten did the same with USC and UCLA. Both were big blows to the Big 12 and Pac-12, respectively.
The Big 12 ran the old realignment playbook for conferences that had members poached. It added some programs that bring new recruiting grounds (Cincinnati, UCF), high recent success (Cincy), cultural fit (Houston), and a sizable, national fan base (BYU). The replacements aren’t as good as the things it lost, but if they were, no one would’ve come to steal away the teams that left.
The Big 12 has landed in a place that’s remarkably stable by its own standards. Primarily it got to such a place by having no one left that the SEC or Big Ten would want to take away. Maybe — extreme maybe here — the Big Ten might look at Kansas for men’s basketball reasons if the school can ever get its football program to consistently not be an embarrassment. KU with a marginal bowl team in most years is a better program for the B1G than several of its current members, but basketball may not be super relevant in the future given the way its regular season has lost a lot of its luster.
In short, though, the Big 12 can actually plan for the future now. It’s permanently down a tier from the SEC and Big Ten, and it’s hard to see it losing any other teams. It can accept its state and move on confident in what it is.
The Pac-12 is now where the Big 12 was a bit over a decade when four teams left for three different conferences. It had its two big dogs remaining, and its viability required keeping both of them in place. Washington and Oregon are those big dogs for the P12 now, in case you didn’t know or realize, as Texas and OU were for the Big 12 back in the day.
It’s a fundamentally unstable situation because there are programs inside the Pac-12 that could, in theory, be selections for one of the two conferences that have distanced themselves from the rest. It’s conceivable that the Huskies and Ducks could get Big Ten invitations somewhere down the road. I don’t see the SEC reaching for anything out west, but never say never anymore, I suppose.
Anyway, the Pac-12 as presently composed is on the same rung as the Big 12. The P12 has made some indications that it’s thinking about replenishing its ranks, but it has a problem: none of the other programs west of the Big 12 will salvage its undisputed power conference status. The Big 12 only went after one school west of its current footprint after all, and BYU as a religious university was never going to be seriously considered for the resolutely secular Pac-12.
They’re not against religion, mind you, but they see themselves as purely an academic league and have never seriously considered anyone like BYU or a basketball-only deal with the Jesuit school Gonzaga. When Larry Scott tried to make the Pac-16 in 2010, the league tried to get schools way below its usual academic standards in Oklahoma State and Texas Tech but the Baptist-affiliated Baylor wasn’t one of the targets.
The league reportedly is strongly considering San Diego State to get its footprint back in southern California, and its commissioner showed his face at an SMU men’s basketball game. SMU does still stand for “Southern Methodist University”, but it officially separated from the United Methodist Church in 2019 and no longer has any official religious ties.
Neither or both of those additions would stabilize the Pac-12 any more than adding TCU and West Virginia stabilized the Big 12 back in 2012. They’re necessary, especially SDSU, but not sufficient for the league to stave off the Big Ten from coming back for more.
Making matters worse for the Pac-12 is that the Big 12 jumped the media deal line. The Pac-12 had been working on a new broadcast rights package, as its current one ends in summer of 2024. It had been shopping itself around trying to play broadcasters and streamers against each other to drive up the price.
The Big 12’s deal ended in summer of 2025, so in theory it should’ve gone after the Pac 12. However, its commissioner saw an opening, and, instead of going to market, he extended the deal with current partners ESPN and Fox Sports. That move took leverage away from the Pac-12 since ESPN and Fox now have more guaranteed inventory and have committed a good chunk of their spending money.
The Pac-12’s leadership is trying to keep on a brave face, but its negotiations are dragging on far longer than anyone thought. The Big 12, meanwhile, is not so subtly making a play behind the scenes to pick off P12 schools like Arizona, Arizona State, and Colorado. The targets are not fleeing yet, but every day the new media deal doesn’t get done adds more uncertainty.
It’s not hard to see where things could go if the Big 12 can’t deal a deathblow to the Pac-12 this year. The Pac-12 has Washington and Oregon who might appeal to the Big Ten. The ACC has a number of schools like Clemson, FSU, and UNC who might appeal to the SEC and/or Big Ten. If things keep going the way they’ve been going, then by the late 2030s, those schools will move to one of the Power Two leagues and we’ll have an AFC/NFC dynamic at the top of the sport with everyone else a comparatively minor league.
The only way to keep the sport resembling anything of how it’s been, with a constellation of notable conferences and teams across the whole country, is if the SEC and Big Ten decide that actually, 16 teams is big enough.
I don’t know whether that’s likely, but it is possible. SEC commissioner Greg Sankey was one of the biggest forces behind the new 12-team playoff, and it has features that support the current model. The SEC and Big Ten don’t get preferential treatment except through their large numbers and projected excellence, and the champions of the ACC, Big 12, and Pac-12 should be regular participants.
There could be any number of legal reasons why the SEC and Big Ten wouldn’t want to completely separate themselves from the rest of the sport. They might finally find an equilibrium where the additional money isn’t worth the additional administrative and legal headaches at the margin. We might reach that equilibrium in 2024.
Or, the Big Ten and SEC could pick the ACC apart in 2034 as the league’s famed grant of rights is getting ready to expire and the Ducks and Huskies reunite with USC and UCLA and the sport is truly and irrevocably changed forever. We’ll see.
The good news is that Florida will be fine no matter what happens. It’s a true power program within a true power conference. If college sports formally goes to a Big Two model and those big two shed their dead weight to streamline things, that’s a problem for the Mississippi schools and Vandy and Rutgers, not UF.
The Gators will be a winner in any landscape, but we still don’t know what that landscape will look like a decade down the road.