Good morning, and thanks to any of you who have served or are serving now on this Veterans Day. Land of the free because of the brave.
I was not as discouraged as I think a lot of folks were by the 49-17 loss to Texas. This is going to be a bit of a journey, but hang with me here.
The thing that bothered me most was that Billy Napier went for the field goal early on 4th & 2 at the Texas 7-yard-line at about the ten-minute mark in the second quarter. The Gators were down 14-0 but had been gifted some good field position. On the prior drive, UT put itself in a hole with a hold on first down and didn’t seriously try to get out of it. The ensuing punt wasn’t a bomb, so Florida took over just 54 yards from the end zone.
Aidan Warner started the drive with what would prove his best throw of the game, the 39-yard pass to Chimere Dike that landed UF in the red zone. You don’t have to be Steve Spurrier to realize that such opportunities wouldn’t come often with Warner as the triggerman against a very good defense.
Going for the field goal there felt more like Napier trying to preserve the scoring streak than trying to win the game. The money got scared, and the scared money first false started and then shanked the try. I could see maybe, maybe, thinking that the defense could still be trusted at that point, since it had just forced a stop and one of the TDs it had allowed to that point wasn’t really its fault.
But with the cornerback room depleted to the point that maybe the team’s best healthy safety (Trikweze Bridges) is one of the primary guys there, it didn’t make sense. Quinn Ewers is a legit good quarterback like Cam Ward is, and each would light up the defense for well over 300 yards. He led the Longhorns on a pair of extended drives to start the game, with only a missed field goal ameliorating it.
To one degree, I appreciate Napier not immediately turtling from an offensive standpoint with the top two quarterbacks out. Warner is not big, but he has a decent arm. He might be a little stronger than Luke Del Rio, to pick out a somewhat recent comp. And pre-snap, he stands in there with the appearance of a player who confidently knows what he’s doing.
Unfortunately, the appearance breaks down post-snap. He has the pocket presence and accuracy of a 3-star whose offer list was evenly split between G5 and FCS programs and who didn’t play at all in his one year at Yale.
So perhaps ironically, I would actually tend to prescribe the same all-runs-and-bombs offense for Warner as I did for DJ Lagway prior to Georgia, only with more runs and fewer bombs.
The Gators did move the ball well on the ground. Fumble aside, Ja’Kobi Jackson was terrific. His 6.1 yards per carry came honestly, as his long on the day was 11 yards. Jadan Baugh was up around five a carry midway through the game before settling in a 4.6 on the day. This game, with a preferred walk on quarterback on the road, would’ve been a great chance to run a glacial offense. I’m talking snap the ball with less than five seconds on the play clock every time and cap it at 15 passes or less to keep the clock moving.
Instead, Warner dropped back 26 times (25 throws plus a sack) and averaged 4.8 yards across those plays. He also had two turnovers to the running backs’ one. Granted both were tipped, but the first was such a bad decision to throw into so much traffic that I think it’s a pick regardless. I don’t think Napier thinks he can win games against good teams with Warner playing a normal sized quarterbacking role — I hope not, anyway — but if he did, I’m not sure what he’d do differently.
Baugh’s ability to make something from nothing and Jackson’s excellent vision to find lanes pair really well with an offensive line that can do passably well against good fronts. The plan should be to ride them, plus Montrell Johnson if/when he becomes available again, and then let Warner surprise the defense with play action from time to time. Defenses won’t allow Warner to dink and dunk it down the field because they’re already crowding the first ten yards upfield to stop the run.
Ultimately this grousing about offensive strategy is moot because of how poorly the defense played without Jason Marshall, Devin Moore, and Ja’Keem Jackson. Not only is Bridges not as good a corner as any of them (because he’s, y’know, a safety), but it meant that lesser safeties got more time without him playing his normal spot. Steve Sarkisian is one of the best play callers, so it was like shooting fish in a barrel getting to face a team without any of its top three corners.
There are things Florida could’ve done to end up with a tighter final score, and some of the large margin was bad luck. Bad injury luck principally, but also Jackson doesn’t normally fumble. Warner’s second interception was a good choice with where to go with the ball, but the protection couldn’t hold and it was batted up in the air straight to a defender.
I had very low expectations for this one, but Florida did exceed them some. Largely it was the run game that did it. The Gators played in such a way that it made me think that if they did have Lagway, Marshall, and Moore, they could’ve gone toe-to-toe with the Longhorns a lot of the way. That was more than I was thinking I’d see, so it’s better than nothing. On to the next one.