I still wouldn’t have been shocked if Florida had defeated Georgia, as it would’ve required the Gators playing at the top end of their potential and the Bulldogs at the low end of theirs. When those things line up, you get upsets.
But the fact remains, I didn’t and would never expect this year’s Florida to defeat this year’s Georgia. You can’t expect anyone to defeat UGA while using roughly the same style of play but with much less talent.
Billy Napier wants to win games the way Kirby Smart wins them right now. That’s the model he has in mind. He’s building towards that model, so he is trying to win in that fashion. But because Smart had years’ worth of a head start — and partially because Napier is intentionally going a deliberate route and partially because he hasn’t been able to land an all-conference type performer out of the portal aside from his former player O’Cyrus Torrence — the Gators don’t have near the talent that the Bulldogs do.
Therefore, there never should’ve been an expectation of a Gator win. Never.
It’s frustrating to not be able to expect wins, especially against hated rivals. However, Scott Stricklin chose a head coach who wants to win in that style, and Dan Mullen left behind a talent void and a bad culture. Stricklin also recently told ESPN that he expects Napier to be the solution to Florida football’s problems for the next 15 to 20 years, so present management isn’t looking for a drastic change in tack.
What it has been is what it will be until the talent levels even out, and that was always going to take years.
I said on Friday that Napier’s approach to the game would set the tone for the program for years. I’m pleased to report that the approach was on the aggressive end. He called downfield passes. He went for it on fourth down in his own territory on 4th & Inches early. It wasn’t a display like the road game against Kentucky where he bent under pressure and kept things conservative.
The problem then is that in not going conservative, it gave a full display for the shortcomings of the program. Many of the things everyone was doubting about Napier’s model after the Utah debacle showed up again.
With the game getting away from the team in the first half, special teams would’ve been a great place to find a big play to turn momentum. Instead, it was a net negative once again. There wasn’t a repeat of the duplicate numbers issue, but about 27 Bulldogs got through the line to block a punt and force a safety.
Pardon if this gives you McElwain era flashbacks, but the opening scripted drive was the only good one before garbage time. When he needed to think on his feet to call plays against a top defense, Napier again showed himself to not be up to the task.
He was flailing by the end of the first half. UF’s first drive after the safety comes to mind. The defense actually got a quick stop, so it was an opportunity to cut the deficit to two scores before the break. Napier called an ineffective run on first down that got two yards. He called a solo bomb on second down that Graham Mertz badly overthrew, which was actually good because UGA had it double-covered. There was no chance that a single deep route was going to get anything. Then on 3rd & 8, he called a slow-developing pass play that a Bulldog beating Austin Barber blew up that resulted in a check down for no gain.
That’s no way to go, man.
Napier is the play-calling OC on top of being head coach because he wanted an extra coaching spot for two O-line assistants. He just doesn’t have it as an in-game play caller against good defenses, though. And it’s questionable how much the program is benefitting from those two OL coaches because the line has been a clear weakness this year and was probably made to look better than it was last season by the one-year rental of Torrence and Anthony Richardson’s athleticism. Offensive line is also the only position group in the otherwise stellar 2024 class without much in the way of headlining commits.
And then Napier is supposed to be an organizational whiz, but there were obvious signs of communication problems early on defense. In a stadium split 50-50. That they played in last year. Coming out of an off week.
UF dodged a bullet there with the early goal line stand. With no less a veteran than Jaydon Hill clearly staring at the sideline for the call, Austin Armstrong and staff couldn’t get the play in. Armstrong sprinted down the sideline trying to call a timeout to no avail. Fortunately UGA went with an uninspiring play and it didn’t succeed, but that should be beneath the level of such a large and well-compensated staff.
So, we’re right back to where we were two months ago. I believe major staff changes are coming because I’ve seen it reported by someoine I trust, but the Gators are what they are from here on out.
There is no choice but to make changes. I’ve said in this newsletter a couple times this year that I don’t want to see Florida run a pure Leach-style Air Raid or a Baylor-style offense like Tennessee’s because you can’t win a title with those. Eventually an elite defense will shut them down like Georgia did to the Vols last year or Bama always did to Mike Leach himself at Mississippi State.
Well, I am sufficiently convinced that Florida can’t and won’t win a title with the current arrangement. Napier needs to hire a real, play-calling, game-planning OC and get things off his plate so he can better administer his program. Too many things aren’t up to snuff or falling through the cracks. There has to be better leadership from the top, but that won’t with the boss trying to wear a dozen different hats.
Beat Arkansas to avoid the ignominy of missing a bowl and try to steal one other. That’s all the 2023 season is good for anymore. After that, UF needs to redo a good sized portion of its coaching staff and leadership model to try to find something with a future.