by Will Miles
Baseball vs. Miami
Gator baseball opened up a new stadium with a win on Friday, but then dropping back-to-back games against the Miami Hurricanes.
For a team ranked number one in the country, a 1-2 start against a team that hasn’t won a series against the Gators since 2014 is a little bit concerning. But it really shouldn’t be.
The expectation was that the Gators would have a really strong pitching staff this season given the players returning from last year’s team and the 2.41 ERA over 151 innings. Yet the Gators allowed 23 runs (18 earned) in the three games against the Hurricanes.
Unlike some other sports, baseball is a game of streaks. The 2017 National Championship team lost two straight to FGCU, three straight to Auburn, and two straight to Tennessee. That team won the SEC with a 52-19 record (21-9 SEC). The reality is that great teams sometimes lose a game or two in a row.
The question to ask is whether this is the character of the team, or whether this is an aberration. I think it’s much more likely the latter.
Walks always kill you
When I was 10 years old, I got an ear infection the night before a big baseball game that I was supposed to pitch in. Three innings, 14 walks and 12 runs later, my team was wishing I’d stayed home instead of begged my way into the game.
The feeling of helplessness as I had no idea where the ball was going was overwhelming. In my case, it was because my equilibrium had been thrown off by the ear infection. In the Gators case, I’m not sure why exactly they couldn’t find the plate, but the feeling – especially for the relievers late in the game – was likely very similar.
Last season, the L.A. Dodgers gave up 145 walks and 213 runs. The Rays? 172 and 229. The Gators gave up 25 walks and 23 runs over the weekend. That’s putrid, and it has to stop, but there’s lots of evidence that it should.
Brandon Sproat walked 3 men in 6 IP last season. He walked 4 in 2 innings this weekend. Hunter Barco walked 6 in 19.1 innings last season, but walked 3 in 3.1 innings this weekend.
Miami only hit .229 in the three games, but they had an on-base percentage of .380 due to the 25 walks and 5 HBP. Florida’s history suggests they will clean that up.
But it’s the story of baseball. Walks always kill you.
O’Sullivan and the Gators will be fine
So if it isn’t clear by now, I’m bullish on the Gators even after a 1-2 start. Given that the Gators evened up their record on Tuesday night against North Florida only reinforces that.
But even had the Gators dropped that game, I would have still been bullish. That’s because streaks happen in baseball, the underlying statistics for the pitchers are strong (29 strikeouts in 31 IP vs. Miami) and this is a team that was on an impressive run last year before the season was cancelled and brought in a top-tier recruiting class.
We all have seen how COVID has impacted various football and basketball teams (Duke, North Carolina and Kansas are a combined 28-16). I think we need to expect that it may impact baseball teams as well.
Regardless, Florida is prepared for this. The Gators have plenty of arms. If lack of control becomes systemic, there are other players that Kevin O’Sullivan will be able to go to.
But more than that, it’s just an acknowledgement that in a season where you’re going to play over 70 games, two losses just isn’t that big of a deal.
Softball 8-0 after winning Bubly Invitational
The Florida softball team won the Bubly Invitational over the weekend, extending its record to 8-0 to start the year.
The Gators have surrendered a total of 9 runs in those 8 games, while scoring 52. Now USF, Jacksonville, Charlotte and Georgia Southern are not the SEC, but when you’re winning games by more than an average of 6 runs per contest, that’s quite the start.
Perhaps the most encouraging thing about the start is the pitching. Katie Chronister, Rylee Trlicek and Elizabeth Hightower have combined for 40 IP and 2 ER. Hightower in particular has 22 strikeouts in 19 innings, indicating the ability to overpower opponents when needed.
In 2019, Kelly Barnhill was the workhorse for the Gators, pitching 287 innings. Barnhill averaged 1.24 strikeouts per inning. Hightower isn’t quite at that level thus far (1.16), but the fact that she is close – and appears to have more support than Barnhill did at that time, bodes well for the Gators.
This team is really good. You should take the time to watch them if you get the chance.
Basketball promising against Georgia
The Gators raced out to a 14-point halftime lead and led by as many as 17 points late in the second half, but then held on to win 70-63 after letting the game get within 5 points.
Some might call that glass half empty. After all, I use this space every week to talk about how point differential matters and Final Four teams at Florida win by 12+ points. That remains true.
But there is some solace in the jumping out to a 17-point lead. That tells me that this team does have that gear to move to, but that everything has to hit right for that to happen.
Of course, Georgia is only 13-9. This was a home game. Florida was coming off of two straight losses. All of those things should have led Florida to close this one out instead of letting the Bulldogs hang in.
But that’s sort-of the story of the Florida Gators under Mike White: two steps forward and one step back. In this case, we got both of those things in this one game against Georgia.
Basketball follow-up against Auburn
I feared that the follow-up to the win over Georgia would be disappointment as the Gators traveled to Auburn. Instead, the Gators put on perhaps their best performance of the season in a 74-57 win over the Tigers.
Auburn isn’t a very good team (11-13). But 17 point wins are what you’re supposed to do to teams that aren’t very good. And the fact that Florida jumped out to a 44-22 lead at the half and then took the game home does indicate that perhaps they learned something from the game against Georgia.
Instead of letting up and letting the Tigers back into the game like they did the Bulldogs, this time Florida kept its foot on the gas and left no doubt they were the better team.
I’m not about to look at one or two wins and declare this a changed team. And certainly it hurt Auburn that freshman Sharife Cooper was out with an ankle injury.
But the reality is that big wins have been in relatively short supply this season for the Gators. I’m not going to look a gift horse in the mouth. Instead, this is one step towards where the team wants to go, and something to build on after winning against Georgia.
After the loss to Mississippi State in January, the team was 6-4 and looked middling. They then ripped off four straight wins, made it into the AP top-25 and almost immediately dropped two straight. But with the wins over Georgia an Auburn, Florida is now 6-2 in its last eight games.
It may not be exactly where we want them to be, but that is progress.
Point Differential – Late February Edition
After the big win over Auburn, Florida now sits at a point differential of 6.1. Here’s how that compares with the other teams in White’s tenure.
- 2015-2016: 5.5
- 2016-2017: 11.4
- 2017-2018: 6.6
- 2018-2019: 4.2
- 2019-2020: 5.9
- 2020-2021: 6.1
If it feels like Groundhog Day, that’s because it kind of is. There is one outlier in that list above, but I would suggest that the other five seasons are likely who Mike White is as a coach. And a point differential of 6.1 points per game isn’t a profile of a Final Four team. It’s the profile of a team that loses 14 games per year.
It also certainly isn’t on par with White’s team that made the Elite 8 in 2016-2017, but the reason is actually worth examining. That Elite 8 squad averaged 77.9 points per game. This year’s team is averaging 76.2, so nearly identical. Yet, the 2016-2017 team only allowed 66.5 points while this year’s team is giving up 70.1. The difference in the two teams is squarely on the defensive end.
So while there is always lots of frustration at the dry spells on the offensive end, the reality is that this team is coming up short on defense. Improvement there is critical if the team is to improve because that’s how they eliminate inconsistency.
That is why the Georgia and Auburn wins should be somewhat encouraging. Georgia only scored 63 and Auburn scored 57. That’s the kind of defense necessary for the Gators to get where they want to go.
That’s how they make a run in March.
Emory Jones feeling the pressure?
Emory Jones stated this week as spring practice started that he wasn’t feeling any pressure now that he’s the presumed starting QB for 2021.
That may be a good thing, as pressure often makes people press, and Jones is so physically gifted that just going out there on the field and performing loose and free may be just the ticket to a successful season.
But I also worry that he’s talking about pressure during spring practice.
Being the Florida QB is a pressure cooker. You are going to be lionized when you play well and heavily criticized when you don’t. Feleipe Franks is perhaps the poster child for this sort of treatment, as his arm strength was lauded after the “Heave to Cleve” against Tennessee but his limitations criticized heavily in losses to LSU and Texas A&M, and particularly against Georgia and Missouri the next season.
Franks didn’t really turn a corner until the South Carolina game in 2018. It was at that point – with the Gators having fallen behind significantly – that Franks scored and shushed his own home crowd. At the time, it seemed like a stupid thing to do that might rile up the fan base even further, but then, Florida started winning.
It turned out that perhaps Franks needed to not care so much about what his own fans thought to really let loose and play the way he knew how. That certainly wasn’t perfect, but his performance the rest of the game against South Carolina, then the rest of the season against FSU and Michigan was significantly better.
I’m not sure you get better by avoiding the pressure cooker. I think perhaps the way you get better is by going right through it. Emory Jones can talk all he wants about not feeling pressure.
At the end of the day though, overcoming pressure isn’t throwing with a red jersey on in April to win the QB job. It’s getting dinged-up against LSU in Baton Rouge and still leading your team to victory.
Auburn prequel
There’s plenty of evidence though that Jones might be prepared to handle that sort of pressure. He has gotten into a bunch of different games, but a couple stand out in terms of what they can teach us about his skills and abilities.
The first one that jumps to mind is his cameo in the Auburn game in 2019.
Kyle Trask had come into the Kentucky game after Feleipe Franks was injured and had played well, then had lit up Tennessee and Towson, and Gators fans were getting excited about his prospects as the starter. Then, in the second quarter against the Tigers, Trask was rolled-up on by Auburn defensive end Marlon Davidson and it looked like he too might be lost for the season.
Auburn had just tightened the game to 14-13. Florida had its third-string QB (Jones) in the game. So what did Jones do? Led the Gators on a 9-play, 51-yard field goal drive to extend the Florida lead to 17-13 and run nearly five minutes of clock.
That drive only included one run for Jones (a 6-yard rush on 3rd and 2 to extend the drive). Instead, Jones move the Gators with his arm, going 3-4 for 32 yards, with a key 20-yard throw to Freddie Swain to put the Gators in field goal range.
You couldn’t have really blamed Jones had he been disappointed after Trask was named the back-up and after Trask excelled in that role after Franks was hurt. It would be human nature to relax and perhaps not prepare as well heading into the Tennessee or Auburn games.
But that drive indicates that Jones was prepared. He was ready when his number was called. And when the pressure ramped up, he was able to handle it.
Oklahoma prequel
The other game that jumps to mind when thinking about Jones’ game is the most recent one: the blowout loss to Oklahoma in the Cotton Bowl.
It’s hard to remember (or maybe I just don’t want to), but Jones was a big part of the game plan early, especially after Kyle Trask threw three interceptions on the Gators first three offensive drives.
In fact, on that third drive, Jones popped a 14-yard run and completed a 22-yard pass to Trent Whittemore. And on the Gators only touchdown drive of the half, Jones went 4-6 for 48 yards along with 4 rushes for 17 yards and a TD.
In total, Jones first half stats were 5-7 for 73 yards and 5 rushes for 31 yards. That’s the bright side. The down side is that Jones really struggled in the second half when the keys were turned over to him, going 3-9 for 13 yards with 5 rushes for 29 yards.
The whole team fell apart, but that’s really Jones job to keep that from happening. He was unable to do so and it was because he was unable to move the ball in the air.
So that is really the question to me. Is the Auburn Jones who stepped in completely prepared and made big throws to move the team down the field the guy we’re going to see in 2021? Is it the first-half Jones against Oklahoma before the wheels fell off? Or is it the guy who was still able to run the ball, but really struggled throwing the ball in the second half against the Sooners?
My guess is that it’ll be some of each depending on the opponent and the ability of Jones to handle the pressure that comes with being the Gators starter.