Good morning!
Once again, it’s time for the Around The Hoop newsletter where I talk all things Florida basketball. It’s MARCH! This would normally mean an incredible month for Florida basketball, but unfortunately that isn’t the case this season. However, even with a rough year I’m happy to be covering the team for Gator Country and I’m thankful for the opportunity to talk to you all through these newsletters. Let’s begin!
The SEC Tournament begins today (Thursday) for the Gators–what are the stakes?
Okay, as you’re almost certainly aware–the Gators are not making the NCAA Tournament unless they win the SEC Tournament which is an extremely tough ask. So, on one hand–it doesn’t seem like the stakes are that high.
Here’s going to be a statement that depresses some of you–the Gators are currently playing for NIT seeding.
I’m told that the Gators will accept an invitation to the NIT, and it looks like they would likely be in that field–though not as a top-16 seed. Actually–let’s back this up, as I assume many of you are not intimately knowledgeable about the NIT–it’s not exactly a tournament the Gators should be frequenting.
The NIT is a 32-team field, and the first rounds are held at campus sites. So, in order to host a first round game you need to be in the top-16 seeds. According to NIT bracketology and, well, looking at the resumes–the Gators are not a top-16 team in the NIT field. Yes, I know–that statement probably hurt. So, if the Gators want to host a first round game in the NIT they’ll need to win a game or two in the SEC Tournament.
To be honest with you, I wouldn’t mind if the Gators went on the road in the NIT. It would likely take them to play against a team like Michigan, or maybe even North Carolina, and those would be tough road environments. You know what, maybe I should have started a fresh thought to talk NIT. It’s never too late, I call the shots in this newsletter.
The NIT isn’t really a player development situation.
In the off years where the Gators make the NIT after a disappointing season, there is always discussion about treating the NIT like a development situation–getting in young guys, trying new schemes, things of that nature. Here’s the thing–the NIT following a disappointing season isn’t like a mediocre bowl game in football following a disappointing season. The NIT begins on Tuesday following Selection Sunday (I’ll point out as well that the bracket doesn’t come out until LATE that night, because they need to see who is in the NCAA Tournament field before they can make the NIT field) so it is a very quick turnaround. With travel, an NIT bid realistically only gives a team one extra practice which, essentially, is nothing. Again, it’s not like a bowl game where you’d have multiple extra practices and the chance to really develop guys. So, it’s not really a player development situation where I’d expect the Gators to play their young guys a bunch of minutes.
However, while it’s not a chance for the players to get valuable reps–I do think it would be a valuable situation for the coaching staff to get reps. Todd Golden is a young head coach who hasn’t had the chance to play in many postseason games and he hasn’t been in a whole lot of tough environments before this season. If the Gators were to get to play a road game against UNC, or Michigan, or UAB, or College of Charleston, those would be extremely valuable coaching reps. Florida’s entire season was marked by the fact that they could take care of lesser opponents but couldn’t raise their ceiling to beat better teams. The opportunity to go on the road and take on a better team sounds like a valuable learning experience for the staff.
“Eric, please–give me some optimism. Tell me why the Gators can win the SEC Tournament?”
To be completely honest, there is no possible way I see this team winning the SEC Tournament from the 8-seed spot. Without Castleton, and the way they have played for the last few weeks…I just don’t see it. I’d put their chances at well below 1%.
But, if I had to make up an argument for why they could go on a miracle run, I could do it!
The Gators are opening against Mississippi State, who the Gators played tough early in the year and only lost by 2. Since then the Bulldogs have played better basketball, but their shooting has gotten steadily worse. They are now last, and I mean dead last, in the country in three-point percentage and that means they can become easy to guard. The Gators will be able to double team anyone on the inside and try their luck with bad shooters taking threes in an unfamiliar gym, and that could be a recipe for success.
If the Gators won that game they’d take on Alabama, the 1-seed. How could the Gators beat a team that blasted them early in the season? Well, the Crimson Tide aren’t just the 1-seed in the SEC Tournament, but no matter what happens they’ll be a 1-seed in the NCAA Tournament. That means this game, and the SEC Tournament on the whole, doesn’t mean a whole lot to them. They’d almost certainly rather get the NCAA Tournament totally healthy, and an early departure from the SEC Tournament just means more rest. Every single year we see top teams in the high major conferences lose unexpectedly early in their conference tournaments, and believe me, I’ve talked to some of these coaches–they’ve had a bit of a grin talking about how they’re more than happy to have a few extra days rest before the Big Dance. Additionally, factor in that Alabama has all kinds of off the court issues right now, and you can see why maybe this game doesn’t matter a whole bunch to them.
The highest remaining seed would then be Missouri, a team the Gators handled early in the year. Missouri isn’t big, or athletic, and that makes the matchup more favorable for Florida.
It’s hard to say who will be in the finals from the other side of the bracket, but Vanderbilt is making noise as a trendy team to go on a run. They’re playing excellent basketball as of late and they’ll be picked to beat Kentucky in the quarterfinals by a lot of analysts. It’s entirely possible that the Commodores go on a run to the finals in their home city, and that’s a matchup that wouldn’t exactly be favorable to the Gators after Vanderbilt beat them twice already this season, but it’s not a foe that would seem unbeatable by any stretch.
That is the pathway to the Gators winning the SEC Tournament.
Do I believe that will happen? No, not at all. To be honest–I think they’re losing in their first game to Mississippi State. But, don’t let that get in the way of a good story. Let’s hope I’m wrong on that one!
Thanks for ready, see you next week!