Florida may not have played this last week due to a COVID shutdown but that doesn’t mean I don’t still have a few thoughts!
Here is what’s circling my head regarding the Gators these days.
Florida will probably come off this shutdown a bit rusty.
When the Gators went on a break for 3 weeks near the beginning of the season, they came back looking fantastic with a win over Vanderbilt where they looked crisp on both sides of the floor.
However, expecting this to happen again could be wrong. With so many teams having shutdowns this year there have been a number of statistical studies that have taken place to try and quantify what a shutdown does to a team. What most have concluded is that coming off a break between 1-2 weeks, a team’s efficiency and expected win probably drops from 4-5% from what it would have been had the game taken place regularly.
While we didn’t see that from the Gators after their first stoppage, we should maybe expect them to show a little bit more rust this time around. At the start of the season everyone was still trying to find their footing, and that may have helped the Gators keep pace even with their stoppage. Now that we’re well into the meat of the season where teams are all in stride, coming off a stoppage could be more detrimental.
Fortunately for the Gators…
I’m hearing that Saturday’s game against Texas A&M is ON.
It’s still yet to be confirmed but I’m hearing this game is going to happen which would be great for the Gators because if they’re going to have to come off a lengthy break, they’re going to want to do it against Texas A&M. The Aggies are 13th in the SEC, a team that lacks talent and size. They’re also coming off a break of their own, which on one hand makes the likelihood of this game a bit dicey (as both Florida and Texas A&M have to clear protocol) but on the other hand makes it a far less daunting task for the Gators. It would be one thing to have to come back against a good team that is on a roll, but getting to come back against a basement SEC team that has had a break of their own is certainly beneficial for the Gators.
Did Florida get lucky not having to play LSU and Tennessee?
This is certainly debatable, and while I don’t like having to admit this…I’ll say yes. Obviously the Gators have beaten both already, including a blowout win over the Volunteers, but playing both for a second time could very much have been trouble. Both Will Wade and Rick Barnes are fantastic scouting coaches who always come into second meetings of the season with tremendous adjustments, something that could have caused problems for Florida.
The Gators’ biggest problem this year has definitely been their defense, and LSU is an offensive machine right now. They’re dropping some games because they can’t guard a soul right now, but they’re sneakily one of the most efficient offenses in the country that can outscore just about anyone. Florida won a shootout with them in meeting one, but it wouldn’t be shocking at all if the Tigers came out on the winning side in the second matchup.
Florida was able to capitalize on Tennessee’s worst night of the year, but the Volunteers have started playing to their potential recently. They’re athletic and physical and their defense has gotten back to one of the best in the country and a repeat matchup with them could be terrifying for the Gators.
Tre Mann will probably be gone after this season.
This isn’t sourced, I haven’t heard anything from him or the Mann family, but I have heard from several NBA scouts who have him as a first round talent and if he’s a first round talent I think he is certainly gone. Even if he thinks he’d get taken in the second, that could still be enough for him to go. Remember that a year and a half ago when he was leaving high school and was a McDonald’s All-American, he was expecting to go one-and-done. Obviously that didn’t happen, and he made what was probably the right decision to come back to school, but he likely never had it in his mind that he would stay in college for multiple years.
Mann’s biggest NBA skill is his ability to shoot off the dribble, something you need against the tight defense and supreme athletes of the NBA. Mann is one of the best shooters off the dribble in the country, and it’s something that the NBA scouts I talked to raved about. He certainly has some deficiencies in other parts of his game, and he needs to become a much better distributor if he’s going to be an NBA point guard, but he has physical tools and elite shooting touch.
I’d say enjoy watching Mann while you can, because soon he’ll likely be gone.
Thanks for reading my friends! I’ll talk to you next week when there are hopefully games to talk about!