The Florida Gators have become one of the most talked about teams in the country and the conversation has gravitated from discussion about whether they can be a Final Four team to something even greater:
Can this team win a National Championship?
Here is a dive into all the reasons that Florida can and why they cannot win an NCAA Tournament. At the end, you can decide for yourself if the Gators will be cutting down the nets.
Why They Can: The metrics (and polls) really like them.
Right now the Gators are #2 in the AP Poll behind Auburn, and they are similarly ranked in the analytics that are most popular among college basketball evaluators. Here is where they rank in the metrics that matter:
NET Rankings: 4th
KenPom: 4th
BartTorvik: 4th
EvanMiya: 4th
According to Bracket Matrix, a composite work of the top bracketologists, the Gators have the final #1 seed–suggesting those evaluators have the Gators with the 4th best resume in the country.
There is really no question that the Gators are one of the top teams in the country–so a Final Four seems within reach, and by that point a National Championship is just a step away.
Why They Can’t: The metrics don’t like them quite enough.
Let’s focus in on KenPom for a second, as Kenpom is the most popular of all the predictive metrics. Florida is 4th in this metric, as they are in all the other metrics of substance.
When you look at National Championship winners over the last years, they have all been #3 in KenPom or higher. The last team outside of the top three in KenPom to win a championship was 2014 UConn, a team that was considered to have somewhat of a miracle run. Look for the Gators to try and climb into the top three before the regular season is done in order to get in the range that has been required recently to win the championship.
Why They Can: They are a dominant two way team.
A big reason why Florida has had so much success this season is their play on both ends of the court that isn’t reliant on dominance on offense or defense. A popular statistic that has been going around is another one that’s related to KenPom:
Since 2001, 96% of Champions have been top-21 in KenPom’s offensive efficiency, and 91% of champions have had a top-31 defensive efficiency. Currently, only 9 teams are in that range and Florida is one of them, easily clearing the mark at 4th in offense and 8th in defense.
If you want to take that metric further, only three teams are top-10 in both categories:
Duke (2nd offense, 4th defense)
Florida (4th offense, 8th defense)
Houston (7th offense, 3rd defense)
There is a chance your upcoming National Champion will come from this short list.
Why They Can’t: Florida hasn’t shown the ability to consistently knock off top opponents.
Florida has played five games against top-25 KenPom teams this year and is just 2-3 in those games with wins over Auburn and Tennessee and losses to Tennessee, Missouri, and Kentucky. To win a National Championship you’re going to need to beat multiple top-25 teams, and while Florida has certainly shown the ability to do that with wins over Auburn and Tennessee who were both #1 in the AP Poll at the time of the games they have struggled against that next tier of competition.
Why They Can: They won’t get upset early.
There is a reason why one of the slogans that surrounds the NCAA Tournament is “Survive And Advance.” It’s not always about dominating your opponent, it’s about avoiding the landmine of an early upset loss.
Right now the idea that Florida could get upset early seems entirely unlikely. In the previous point I mentioned that Florida has three losses to top-25 opponents this year. Well…those are their only three losses. They have repeatedly shown that their pace, physicality, and depth can overcome lesser opponents, and it makes the idea of them losing in the first weekend unfathomable. Florida might be able to outlast a number of other top teams simply by taking care of games they’re favored to win in which would allow them to Survive And Advance.
Why They Can’t: Florida’s style of play might not be best suited for March.
When it comes to the big games of March Madness the pace of play can crawl to a halt. In competitive environments where opponents are heavily scouted the pace of play often slows and it becomes a half court grind-it-out style of game. Florida is a team that is much more suited to a wide open game and they want to fly up and down scoring in transition where they are 18th in the country in efficiency. Unfortunately–they’re not so good in the half court where they are currently 73rd nationally in efficiency, a number that actually has improved in recent weeks if you’re looking for optimism. Florida also hasn’t been great late in close games (though that sample size is small given how many blowout wins the Gators have) and are 263rd in efficiency after time outs, meaning they might struggle in the NCAA Tournament setting that sees extra long timeouts for commercials and even more monitor reviews for every close call.
Why They Can: They have one of the best players in the country in Walter Clayton.
Make no mistake about it, Walter Clayton Jr. is one of the best players in the country averaging 17.2 points and 4.2 assists per game as the offensive engine for a team with a projected #1 seed. Not only is he one of the best players in the country, but he’s one of the players that is best suited for March with his ability to create individually and create a shot out of nothing. We saw this firsthand last year when Clayton almost single handedly brought the Gators back from the dead against Colorado in a game where he scored 33 points. He even had a solid game with Iona two years ago going against the mighty future champions UConn scoring 15 while adding 4 assists.
Clayton is hitting 33% of his off the dribble threes and 53% of his off the dribble twos, and this is a very important skill going into postseason play where defense intensifies and the whistle gets less common meaning you need to make one on one plays away from the rim. Every year there seems to be a guard that becomes a hero in the NCAA Tournament due to their ability to create and make huge shots, and Clayton could absolutely be that guy.
Why They Can’t: Lack of NCAA Tournament experience (kind of).
The NCAA Tournament is a unique setting in huge arenas loaded with fans, many of which are neutral, and there are quick turnarounds and prep taking place in new hotels in cities the players may not have been to before. NCAA Tournament experience is huge, but the Gators don’t have many players that have it.
Between…
Walter Clayton (2)
Reuben Chinyelu (2)
Alex Condon (1)
Will Richard (1)
Thomas Haugh (1)
Denzel Aberdeen (1)
…the Gators have just 8 games of NCAA Tournament experience, and most of those came in Florida’s game against Colorado last year that, quite frankly, didn’t go well for a lot of them. Chinyelu has two games of Tournament experience last year at Washington State where he played 8 and 10 minutes as the 4th big in the Cougars’ rotation so he didn’t get a ton of reps–and in both games key turnovers kept him on the bench in the second frame.
Of course, I omitted a very important name here.
Alijah Martin. Martin, of course, laps the field in terms of NCAA Tournament experience with 6 games played in the Big Dance, all with Florida Atlantic, and with 5 of them coming in the miracle Final Four run in 2023. Not only did Martin get experience, but he was one of if not the best Owl during that run.
So, Martin brings a ton of NCAA Tournament experience on his own, but the team around him doesn’t have many reps at the top level of the sport. We’ll see if this is an issue for the Gators at all.
Overall the Gators have 14 games of NCAA Tournament experience. Houston, who is #3 in most of the metrics just ahead of the Gators, as a reference point, has 49 combined games of NCAA Tournament experience. That also doesn’t count games missed to injury or redshirt where players were present and experiencing everything but not playing–as that would bring the total even higher. Tennessee, right behind the Gators at 5th in KenPom (and a team that has been known for falling short of expectations in recent NCAA Tournaments) has 26 combined games of experience.
Why They Can: They have incredible depth.
Oftentimes the NCAA Tournament is all about finding ways to win, and that means being able to play different styles, execute in different ways, and have different players who can step up. If there is one advantage that the Gators will have over a number of opponents, it’s their depth. At full strength (which they should be by tournament time) the Gators will bring players like Thomas Haugh, Micah Handlogten, Denzel Aberdeen, and Urban Klavzar off the bench, all players that have capably played big roles when required and all have the ability to go off for big games if required. Haugh has shown he can be one of the best players on the floor even against Florida’s top opponents, Micah Handlogten has a year of SEC starter experience, Aberdeen has gone off for 20 points or more on multiple occasions, and Klavzar has March star written all over him with his European experience and ability to hit big threes under pressure.
Why They Can’t: They have an inexperienced head coach.
In his sixth year of head coaching Todd Golden hasn’t yet had the opportunity to coach in a lot of postseason games, particularly in the NCAA Tournament where he has head coached just two contests–both of them losses. There was last season where the Gators lost to Colorado, and there was Golden’s last season at San Francisco where he lost in overtime to Murray State in one of the best games of the Tournament that year.
Just how much coaching experience matters in the NCAA Tournament is up for debate, but anything past a first round contest will be new waters for Golden.
These are some of the reasons why Florida can or can’t win the NCAA Tournament this year. What do you think?