Analytic tools and predictive metrics have become a huge part of college basketball, both with helping to contextualise how good teams are relative to the rest of the country and more importantly–as the main tools the NCAA uses to order teams when it comes to Selection Sunday. Whatever your views on analytic tools are, it looks like they’re here to stay, and it has become a huge part of covering the sport in 2024.
Before we look at each of these preseason rankings, it’s important to note what these systems do well, and what they don’t do well. When it comes to evaluating the proven talent at the division one level, these tools do an excellent job. If a team is bringing back veteran D1 players, these tools will do well at assessing the amassed talent of that roster. What these systems don’t do well is factor in outliers, such as the Gators bringing in a “freshman” like college basketball hasn’t seen in Urban Klavzar, a player with multiple years of high-level professional experience in Europe that is going to be much more ready to play than your average freshman. These tools also suggest an average rate of development for young players, so if you’re someone suggesting Alex Condon and Thomas Haugh are going to make leaps to being All-SEC type talents–don’t expect these tools to agree with you.
With all the biggest tools having released their preseason rankings, here is where each of them sees the Gators going into the 2024-25 season.
KenPom
Preseason Ranking: 28th
KenPom is the godfather of college basketball analytics and predictive metrics systems, so when it dropped late one night in October people took note. Last year the Gators finished 26th in KenPom, so this would suggest a bit of a drop. KenPom also has adjusted offensive and defensive ranking and it has the Gators 20th offensively and 38th defensively, taking a slight drop in offense from last year but a huge jump in defense.
BartTorvik
Preseason Ranking: 36th
BartTorvik (or Torvik, or T-Rank) has quickly risen up the ranks of popular analytic tools, and many have this tool as the best there is. It might be the lowest on the Gators at 36th, with them ranking 37th on offense and 48th on defense. Torvik goes the extra level of projecting the statistical impact of each player, but only includes freshman ranked through the traditional American recruiting outlets so Urban Klavzar does not appear which could have something to do with the ranking.
EvanMiya
Preseason Ranking: 33rd
EvanMiya’s tool is generally considered to be the most unique with a lot of different statistical inputs than the other tools so you’ll often see his tool differ from the others in a way you can respect. He’s between KenPom and BartTorvik at 33rd, helping set the range of where the Gators can be projected. Interestingly enough he also has a “Roster Rank” that evaluates the talent level of teams and has the Gators 28th–so he factors in other metrics in the actual ranking that has the Gators 33rd. Offensively, EvanMiya has the Gators 33rd offensively and 37th defensively.
Haslametrics
Preseason Ranking: 36th
Haslametrics has the Gators 30th in offense and all the way down at 60th defensively, so you can see how this system would also be a little bit down on the Gators.
Looking at these four tools it’s interesting to see a range that’s pretty small between 28th and 36th, even though all these tools have slightly different algorithms and inputs. Yes, these are preseason projections that are spat out by computers and they shouldn’t be taken as gospel, but it’s a reminder that the Gators do not have a roster with proven division one talent that’s going to simply overwhelm their opponents and they will need strong internal development from their young players and chemistry to really click if they’re going to be a team that improves on last season’s first round NCAA Tournament exit.