Entering the transfer period the Gators knew they needed a primary ball handler that could take control of the offense and eat a lot of the possessions vacated by the graduation of Walter Clayton and the player they settled on to do that was Princeton’s Xaivian Lee.
Right away, this move makes sense when you look at the production that Lee has had the last two seasons in a quality Ivy League averaging 17.1 points and 16.9 points in his last two seasons, paired with 3.7 and 5.5 assists as well. These are the types of numbers in a quality league that project well to the high-major level, but as we know it’s not just about raw numbers–it’s about fit, and style of play.
To begin talking about the role Lee will have with the Gators and what Florida’s staff looked for when honing in on Lee as a target, we have to start with the concept of “usage.” Usage is something that you will hear Florida’s staff say a lot when it comes to players they are pursuing, particularly at the guard position. They believe that a player’s ability to have the ball in his hands for a lot of possessions and the ability to get off a high volume of shots is a skill in itself, as few players in the country have the skill, versatility, and endurance to shoulder such a high load.
A quick interjection here–at this point I’m going to explain that throughout this article there will be a few comparisons in numbers between Xaivian Lee and Walter Clayton. This isn’t to put undue pressure or expectation on Lee, but by comparing the numbers to Clayton, a player you have likely watched a ton of, you will have an excellent reference point.
Clayton was a high-usage player for the Gators, but he actually wasn’t that high when you look against the national average. In terms of possessions used he was 366th, and in percentage of shots taken when on the floor he came in at 315th.
Lee, on the other hand, was 75th in the country in percentage of possessions used and 156th in terms of percentage of shots taken. He is someone who Princeton operated through a ton, and that’s something the Gators loved to see as they were looking for a new quarterback for their offense.
Speaking of quarterbacking, here is where we should look at another extremely impressive statistic for Lee–assist rate. Raw assist numbers are an okay way to look at a player’s ability to set up teammates but it doesn’t account for pace of play or how many minutes a player is on the floor, so assist rate is often a better metric. Lee was 19th in the country in assist rate last season, much higher than anyone on the Gators (Clayton was 271st). The highest assist rate the Gators have seen in recent history is Chris Chiozza in 2018 who was 22nd in assist rate–so that tells you a bit of what Lee has been as a passer.
To get that many assists you need to be someone who stresses a defense initially and forces help and rotations and Lee does that in a couple of ways. First, as is the case with most guards in college basketball–the pick and roll. Lee ran 325 pick and rolls last season which is a high number relative to most lead guards in college basketball, but is actually significantly less than Clayton ran at 433. Like Clayton, Lee is a massive threat to shoot off the dribble and this was his first way of putting pressure on a defense after the pick and roll. Lee shot a remarkable 41% on threes off the dribble last season, and if you’re looking for one number that suggests the Gators could have another offensive star in the backcourt–it could be this one. Making shots off the dribble is one of the hardest things to do in basketball and it’s a trait that most of the best scoring guards have, and this number is extremely encouraging for what Lee could do in the SEC.
With the threat of the pull-up three forcing defenses to play aggressively on Lee in the pick and roll, he does an incredible job of punishing that defense with his ability to hit the roll man. On 39% of the pick and roll possessions he passed out, Lee hit the roll man, a number much higher than most guards due to the difficulty of these passes. Whenever a roll man is hit he is instantly in a high-value scoring position and these possessions are always extremely valuable and this is going to be an area where Florida could see a big change in their offense. Florida wasn’t particularly good at hitting the roll man after ball screens (outside of the empty side ball screen sets where lobs could be thrown to Alex Condon or Rueben Chinyelu) and this new element brought from Lee is going to important considering how much talent the Gators have in the frontcourt. Florida is still awaiting the NBA Draft decisions of Condon and Chinyelu but both are expected to be back, and if so they will benefit greatly from the pocket passing ability of Lee.
Lee is an excellent pick and roll guard, but there are a lot of point guards who are also skilled in that area that can take a lot of possessions. What really makes Lee special as a high-usage player is his ability to go one on one whenever he wants and create a good look. In total Lee logged 102 isolation possessions, and once again to make a comparison to give you some context–Walter Clayton logged 37. Not only was he taking a lot of these possessions–he was efficient. Lee was at an even 1.00 points per possession in isolation possessions, and while that number isn’t as high as the kind of efficiency you can get on some other play types–it’s one of the best marks in the country as 1.00 PPP puts Lee in the 92nd percentile nationally. More than raw efficiency, the ability to score in isolation is a lot more about situational basketball. If a play gets blown up and time is winding down on the shot clock–you need someone who can create in a one on one setting. Need a quick shot to make a two-for-one possible? You need that creator. Want to punish a team that’s switching everything in pick and roll? You need a scoring guard. Late in the game? As you saw with Walter Clayton–you want that guy who can score with an iso. Lee’s ability to hit the stepback three along with his tight handle and the wiggle he has getting to the rim make him an ideal individual creator and it’s something the Gators will love to have at big moments this season.
Right now the question that Florida’s staff has and the area they’ll be pushing Lee is on the defensive end. Oftentimes with these lead guards that have to take on a huge offensive load the defensive end is an area where rest needs to occur, and Lee wasn’t always the most locked in when it came to chasing over a screen or rotating to an assignment. While there are questions with the defense Florida’s staff is still confident they will get him to guard at a high level and if that ends up being the case then Lee could be one of the top point guards in the SEC.