Florida’s 11-0 start has both fans and media alike buzzing as the Gators not only stack up victories but land most of them with decisive margins with the game never really in doubt.
It also has started a discussion on the Gator Country Full Court Press forum on an interesting topic–how does this team compare in quality to Florida teams in the past? Optimism around the Gators is as high as it’s been in quite a while, leading various posters to mention they think that this is the best Florida team since ______, a blank space that can be filled in a number of different ways depending on your personal opinion.
Comparing teams from different seasons and eras can be a huge challenge as anyone who has ever been in a Michael Jordan versus LeBron James debate, but when it comes to evaluating college basketball teams there is one way of doing so, and I thought I’d briefly go down that road to try and answer the question:
This is the best Florida team since _____.
Before we get into it, let’s lay some ground rules. First of all–it’s still very early. It’s entirely possible the Gators haven’t even played an NCAA Tournament team (many way-too-early bracketologists do not have North Carolina in the field) and there is a lot to learn about the team still. Secondly, we are going to try to look at numbers to make this case, but this is not a question that just numbers can answer. There is always further context involved, so I wouldn’t completely shoot down anyone’s differing opinion based exclusively on the numbers we’re about to discuss. Anyways, let’s get into it.
If you’re a hardcore basketball fan (and you likely are if you’re reading my work at Gator Country) you’ll be aware of an analytics tool called KenPom, a predictive metrics system that has become the industry standard in evaluating teams. Fans use it, media uses it, coaches use it, and perhaps most importantly–the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee uses it as one of the official metrics of the evaluation process.
Since you’re probably familiar, you’ll know that KenPom has an ever-changing ranking of every team in the country, and that’s the metric that is most cited when referring to KenPom.
Here’s the thing–KenPom doesn’t simply rank how good a team is 1-364 nationally, but it also evaluates the quality of a team with a numerical value called adjusted efficiency margin. Using this, you can compare teams season to season and see who was “better” (according to these numbers) in greater detail.
For example, last year’s number one team UConn had an adjusted efficiency margin (I’ll use AEM for short moving forward) of +36.43.
The year prior, the number one team in KenPom which was also UConn had an AEM of +29.86.
While they were both number one teams, the numbers are pretty clear–last year’s UConn team was better than the year prior, even though they were both Championship teams who both finished number one in KenPom.
Now that you’ve seen how we can use AEM, we can now get a pretty good idea of where this Florida team compares so far to great Florida teams of the past.
Currently, the Gators have an AEM of +26.50, which is a stellar number. Now, let’s look back to see the last time Florida has posted a similar number.
I could try to build suspense by going year by year, but let’s be real–you know it wasn’t a team that missed the Tournament or got in as a 7-seed, so the real number we’re going back to is the Elite Eight team in 2017.
That team had an AEM of +27.50.
It’s close, but at least according to KenPom the 2017 team was better, and therefore the answer to the question is that this is the best Florida basketball team since 2017. Now is the time where you can think about your own opinion and which team you thought was better between this year and the 2017 team, but it also could be worth waiting out the year and seeing where Florida finishes. The number is pretty close at the moment, and it at least gives some context to where this team is historically. Let’s look at some other relevant Florida teams:
2014: +28.57
2013: +31.18
2012: +22.47
2007: +30.81
2006: +28.28
2005: +23.93
2002: +24.72
2000: +26.97
Using this metric is just one way of evaluating teams year to year and it is extremely interesting to see these teams compare according to AEM. Right now Florida might not quite be playing like some of the legendary teams of the last two decades but they aren’t far off.
I’d love to hear from you about where you think this current Florida team ranks among some of your favorites, and the best place to do so is on the Gator Country Gator Insider Full Court Press message board.