One of the biggest talking points surrounding Florida basketball for the last few seasons has been pace of play, and the noise surrounding it has never been louder than before the 2020-21 season as the Gators have athletes up and down the roster who have all professed a desire to get up and down the court.
When it comes to tempo you’ll often hear people reference numbers from popular analytics tool KenPom. KenPom tracks average possession length, one indication of how fast a team is playing. A year ago the Gators were 237th in this category, a statistic that matches the eye test when it came to the slow and deliberate pace they played at.
Through three games the Gators are 23rd which is going to make fans and media looking at the stat extremely happy. However, as popular as that number is, it’s slightly misleading. A quicker average possession length can indicate a team that’s playing in transition often but it can be skewed towards a team that doesn’t do that but just runs simple, quick actions in the halfcourt. Additionally, offensive rebounds followed by an immediate shot attempt can skew the number. An offensive rebound followed by a shot attempt, something Colin Castleton and Omar Payne have done lots through three games, means possessions that are one or two seconds in length, muddying the waters of the average possession length stat. Something more accurate to see how much a team is playing in transition is to, well, look at how many shots they are taking in transition. It’s not a number easily accessible on sites like KenPom, but it’s available using an analytics service called Synergy Sports Tech.
Mike White spent much of the offseason talking about how the Gators were going to play faster, and through three games that seems to be the case. Well, to be more accurate, in the last two games that has been the case. Against Army the Gators logged only 8 transition possessions offensively, or 11% of their total offense, which was a shade below the 11.2% of possessions the Gators used in transition a year ago in a year where they were known for playing slow. However, against Boston College and Stetson the Gators have really pushed the pace. They had 22 transition possessions against Boston College and 17 against Stetson, bringing their overall transition attempts to 18.7% of their total offense. That number puts the Gators in the upper third of the country, which historically is where the most efficient transition offensive teams live. The top of the list is often low major teams who run and gun in an unsustainable fashion against inadequate competition, so for a high major team like the Gators they are right where they want to be–at least as recent analytic history would suggest.
More importantly than their amount of possessions logged in transition is their efficiency, and so far so good for the Gators in that category.
They’re currently at 1.1 points per possession in transition (shooting 56% from the field) which is a number they should be happy with. It’s not fantastic, but it’s above average and considering they are getting such a high volume of attempts in transition it’s impressive they’re keeping up that per possession level of efficiency.
To put that number in context, they’re currently at 0.9 points per possession in the half court (49% from the field) when they don’t push the ball in transition, so every shot they take on the fast break is inherently going to be of higher value than any attempt in the half court.
That isn’t anything new, as that is the case for almost every team in college basketball. Only 29 teams in college basketball (out of over 350) were better in the half court than transition by a points per possession basis a year ago so the concept of transition opportunities being inherently more important than half court attempts is fairly well established.
Here are a few examples of the Gators’ transition attack so far this season.
The Gators wanted to play faster this season and so far, they have. 19% of their offense has come in transition as opposed to 11% last year and they look far more dedicated to pushing it every time they secure a defensive rebound. Playing fast has also made for efficient offense. pic.twitter.com/GuySfmEvxk
— Eric Fawcett (@Efawcett7) December 8, 2020
This is what the Gators seem to be doing.
For starters, if their opponent makes a basket, their point guard is cutting back towards the inbounder and starting to make a wide loop, maintaining speed while they catch the ball so they can turn upcourt the moment they get it and push.
The center is always running in a straight line towards the opponent’s rim. This is something made popular by North Carolina and Michigan State, two teams who are as good at running the fast break as anyone. They’re looking for an easy bucket if the defense is sleeping and if nothing else, running straight towards the rim demands defensive attention as if that rim running big is open, it’s a dunk every time. Notice early in the video as Omar Payne runs straight to the hoop. Multiple defenders sink in to try to deny him the ball, one of which leaves the open shooter for a Florida three.
Florida’s wings are running wide, all the way to the corners. This accomplishes two things–first, it gives Florida the opportunity for a quick pass to a corner three (you’ll see Noah Locke cash one in that video). The corner three is one of the most valuable shots in basketball, and if you can get a wide open corner three when the defense is sleeping you’ve got to be ecstatic. You’ll also see a lot of defensive players instinctively ball watching in transition, especially if the ball handler starts to get going towards the rim. You’ll see that happen a couple times in the video which allows open Florida threes.
Running wide also accomplishes another goal–spreading out the defense. If you have two shooters running to both corners, and a big man running right under the rim, you now have the defense spread thin. Defenses always want to be condensed, stacking the side of the floor the ball is on so that they can provide help if needed. In transition if you pull a defender to both corners, and have one sitting directly under the hoop trying to keep from getting sealed, you have the defense far more spread out than they want to be.
When a defense is spread out, they’re not equipped to defend drives like the one you see from Keyontae Johnson in that video where he goes coast to coast for a layup. Notice how wide Florida’s wings are running and how it manipulates the defense allowing for Johnson to go all the way to the rim.
It’s early, but so far the Gators are looking great in transition and after years of Florida attempting to accelerate their pace it’s looking like the hard work is finally starting to pay off. Their transition offense is destined to be tested against Florida State on Saturday as they have a high level of athleticism that should be more than comfortable playing uptempo. Considering how good the Seminoles defend in the half court Florida’s key to the game could be scoring early before the defense gets set and if they’re successful it will be a testament to their skill on the fast break.