After suffering a broken hand against Ole Miss on Wednesday night it appears that star center Colin Castleton’s season is finished. Sources say there is a possibility that Castleton would be able to play if the Gators were to make it to the NCAA Tournament which would tip off about a month from today, though that’s looking like somewhat of a daunting task at the moment. As we sit on February 16th the Gators find themselves well out of the NCAA Tournament picture, though if they string together a bunch of wins they’ll have the opportunity to get there. Even if the Gators were to go on a run and make it to The Dance, it’s possible the hand wouldn’t be ready to go–though knowing Castleton, he would probably grit it out, tape that thing up, and go out and compete.
Whether it be for the next several weeks or the remainder of the season the Gators will have to operate without Castleton, so functionally–what does that mean for them?
Well, for starters, Castleton is Florida’s leader in points, rebounds, and blocks. He also has Florida’s highest usage rate, and is second on the team in terms of percentage of shots taken when on the floor (Kowacie Reeves leads the way in this category).
When it comes to Florida’s offense, Castleton has been the most important player. They use him as a post up option to try to attract double teams, and he’s also extremely important in the screen and roll game because of the gravity he attracts as he rolls down the lane. Without him, the Gators would be wise to go to ball screens a little bit less. Jason Jitoboh, the presumed starter in Castleton’s absence, sets massive screens due to his huge frame and that will open things up for Florida’s guards but he isn’t anywhere near the threat Castleton is on the roll so defenses aren’t going to respond the same way when he comes down the lane.
In terms of replacing Castleton’s post touches, the Gators actually had a pretty successful strategy against Ole Miss. Florida inverted their offense and actually put Kyle Lofton on the low block, allowing him to go one on one against the Rebels’ guards. This was effective for a number of reasons. Firstly, Lofton has a size advantage on a lot of other guards and he can play bully ball on the block because of it. Additionally, it balanced the offense well because Lofton isn’t a catch and shoot threat–so instead of having Lofton at a valuable position behind the three-point line where he doesn’t bring as much value, he gets to be on the inside where he can find Florida’s better shooters on kick out attempts.
Transition basketball has already been extremely important for the Gators’ offense since they haven’t been very effective in the half court and that is only going to be heightened without Castleton. Look for the Gators to run even more aggressively in transition, and perhaps even take some questionable shots on the break–gambling that these transition attempts will be more valuable than when the game slows down. Of course, in order to run you need to get a defensive rebound which is going to be easier said than done without Castleton. Rebounding hasn’t been a strength for the Gators and Castleton was their best rebounder–so you know there are going to be some issues there for Florida. This is where Jitoboh will need to step up–throughout his career he has been a well-below average rebounder for his position, something that has baffled fans considering his hulking frame.
Now, an important question–just how important was Colin Castleton to the Gators, and how much trouble are they in?
To find out–we’ll use a statistic called Net Rating (not to be confused with NET Ranking–the official sorting tool of the NBA).
A team’s offensive efficiency per 100 possessions is referred to as offensive rating, with their defensive efficiency per 100 possessions referred to as, you guessed it, defensive rating. Those numbers are combined to make net rating. Obviously, you want your net rating to be a positive number, as that means you are winning your time on the floor. If it’s a negative, you’re losing. Usually, anything between +5 and -5 is considered alright, though of course you’d love to be much higher on the positive side.
During SEC play, with Castleton on the floor the Gators have had a +9 net rating which speaks to just how impactful he has been. Despite the struggles Florida has had, when Castleton is on the floor the Gators have been winning those minutes even against some of the best teams in the league.
Now, the important number–how has Florida been with Castleton on the bench. This is really the number to look at as it will project how the Gators should play without Castleton.
Without him on the floor, the Gators have a -23 net rating.
That number, as you probably feared, is abysmal. This suggests the Gators are one of the bottom teams in the SEC without Castleton on the floor, and that’s going to be problematic for a team looking to rack up some wins at the end of the season.
It won’t be a surprise to you that the Gators are in a tough situation here, though perhaps the numbers still will be a shock. Florida will hope to rally and prove people wrong, coming together for some huge wins at the end of the season that will keep their NCAA Tournament dreams alive.