Florida’s incoming transfer portal class loaded with proven college players is a reason for fans to celebrate, but arguably the Gators’ biggest win when it comes to player acquisition was a guy already on the roster.
Riley Kugel’s explosive second half of the season elevated him from bench piece, to starter, to primary option, to NBA Draft prospect in a matter of a few weeks and at that point the Gators couldn’t be sure that he would be coming back to Florida for his sophomore season. This storyline wouldn’t be a bizarre one for college basketball as in recent years players who generated enough NBA buzz would often leave to go pro even if they weren’t projected to be selected in the draft. Given that there was talk of Kugel’s opportunity to be selected in the second round, there was a very real possibility that the Gators would lose out on an electric talent.
These days, when you get back a player with NBA upside it’s similar to getting a top target back in the portal, and you could argue it was as big or bigger of a “recruiting” win for Florida’s staff than any incoming player from another program. Kugel’s return speaks to a few things–to his desire to get better, for his desire to build up the hype that will get him selected higher in the draft, and the chance to get into a 2024 Draft class that appears to be weaker than the 2023 group. Of course, it would be unlikely for Kugel to return if not for NIL, as he almost certainly will come away with more money at Florida for a year than he would in the 2023-24 season as a pro.
After starting the season as a bench piece for the Gators, Kugel took command of the offense midway through conference play. A Florida team that struggled to score all year long was dealt a devastating blow with an injury to Colin Castleton, and Kugel saw the opportunity to step up. Over the last 10 games of the season Kugel averaged 17.3 points per game making him one of the most explosive players in the country–and it was no easy task given the defensive attention he was given on every single night.
Where do things go next for Kugel? What made him so successful as a freshman, and what does he need to do in order to jump into All-American consideration?
When you look at Kugel’s statistical breakdown you see a player who got much of his offense in isolation and as a pull-up shooter out of the pick and roll. These were productive possessions for him as he graded out at a plus pick and roll and isolation scorer putting up 0.9 points per possession (PPP) in these settings. That’s good enough to put Kugel in the 77th percentile nationally–a very good rank, but one where he could get even better. A good place to start would be when it comes to getting to the rim. Out of 93 pick and roll ball handler possessions, only 33 of them ended with shots in the paint. That means that nearly two thirds of the time Kugel was settling for a jump shot off the dribble–which is definitely a skill in his bag, though you’d like to see him use his athleticism to get to the rim.
Kugel was an elite shooter off the dribble last year hitting 55% of his off the dribble twos and 32% on his off the dribble threes. 55% on off the dribble twos was one of the best marks in the country with the national average being much closer to 40%. While it’s clear that he is elite with his pull up shooting, negative regression on these shots should likely be expected. Kugel turning some of these mid-range twos into shots at the rim, particularly given his athleticism, would result in higher quality shots and more fouls drawn, things that would positively impact both the Gators and his pro prospects.
Since Kugel is such an explosive athlete as seen with a number of highlight reel dunks last season you’d think he’d be an excellent finisher at the rim, but that wasn’t actually the case. Kugel shot 48% on layups last season, well below the national average of 55%. Watching the film, you can see a lot of attempts around the rim where he was off-balance going off one foot, something you’d like to see him address as he enters college as a sophomore. The silky touch he has on jumpers doesn’t seem to quite be there at the rim, and he’ll also need plenty of reps to improve that aspect of his finishing–something he almost certainly would have done this summer.
Kugel’s below-average finishing ability also made him less lethal in an area you’d probably think he’d thrive–transition. It wasn’t that Kugel was terrible in transition, coming in the 60th percentile nationally, but you’d think given his physical gifts he’d be far better than average. Look for him to make a positive leap here.
There is almost a positive element to the fact that Kugel didn’t get to the rim as much as you would think and didn’t finish particularly well when he got there–even though he was productive offensively in conference play last season, he still has a lot of room to grow. 17.3 points per game over the final 10 games of the season could have easily been 20 if he was a slightly better finisher, and given that he should come back to Florida having improved in that area, you could see Kugel take a massive offensive leap.
Another area you’d like to see Kugel improve is as a passer out of pick and roll. Kugel might have been an excellent scorer out of pick and rolls, but when he had to pass the ball it was a completely different story. On pick and rolls where he had to pass out the Gators were only at 0.57 PPP, putting Kugel in the 11th percentile nationally when it comes to passing out of pick and rolls. To make matters worse, he had a 46% turnover rate on these plays. Oftentimes Kugel was going off ball screens looking to turn them into isolation possessions or making up his mind that he was going to shoot, and if the defense took that option away, he wasn’t able to punish them with an on-target pass to the right teammate. There was definite tunnel vision with Kugel, and if he wants to be a player capable of playing pick and roll in the NBA he’ll need to make strides in this area. It goes without saying that Kugel was a young player playing against some of the best defenses in the country in the SEC, so he is likely to make some of these improvements. Additionally, Florida’s offense was proven to be pretty poor, and the structure may not have even been around Kugel to make high-level reads. Kugel has been very open in the offseason about his desire to be more of a playmaker and showcase his passing ability, so look for him to be much better in this area than he was as a freshman.
Last season Kugel was able to make a significant leap from the start of the season to the end of the season despite the fact that the setting around him was far from perfect. Florida lacked shooting to space the floor around him, and without Colin Castleton there wasn’t an interior player to take any defensive attention away from him while he operated on the outside. The offensive system was confused all season long, and the Gators were playing some of the country’s best defenses in the SEC. Despite all that, Kugel was able to put up serious production for a month and a half. Now, with a better constructed roster, another offseason for the coaching staff to figure out what works at the SEC level, and time for Kugel to work out now knowing what it takes to be successful in college basketball–he could be ready for a massive leap.