With the decisive win over the Maryland Terrapins the Florida Gators have advanced to the Elite Eight where they will take on the Texas Tech Red Raiders, who earned their way into this game in a much different way than the Gators did.
Going up against 10-seed Arkansas it was Texas Tech who was heavily favored to win, but the Razorbacks came out extremely hot from the jump and built a significant lead. The Red Raiders never seemed to be able to get back into the game and in the second half John Calipari and Arkansas’ lead grew to 16 with under ten minutes remaining. Given how Texas Tech wasn’t able to muster much in terms of comeback attempts in the first 30 minutes it appeared this game was over–until they completely turned things on after the under-8 media timeout. After surging back they were able to tie the game and send it to overtime where they hit some key shots and had some monumental defensive stands coming away with an emotional 85-83 win.
In year two under head coach Grant McCasland Texas Tech has had an excellent season that sees them sitting at 28-8 going into the matchup with Florida. Expectations were high for the Red Raiders after securing a number of top players in the portal, but it took some time for national media to take note of just how good they were after they chose to schedule an easier non-conference slate that focused on building chemistry between all the new pieces as opposed to building up a resume. Things started to click immediately in Big 12 play and the Red Raiders started stacking up wins, jumping teams like Kansas, Iowa State, and Arizona who were expected to finish at the top of the league. Ultimately Texas Tech finished second behind a mighty Houston squad which speaks to the quality of the roster.
Grant McCasland came to Texas Tech after a successful stint at North Texas, where he was known for playing some of the toughest defense in the country while also playing some of the slowest-paced basketball you could imagine. The Mean Green would pride themselves on winning games while only scoring in the 50’s, and despite it not always being the easiest brand of basketball to watch–it was effective. There was no question McCasland’s success at North Texas made him deserving of a high-major position, but there were a lot of people rightfully wondering if his style was going to work in a higher-level league.
Truthfully–those questions were never really answered. That’s because since coming to Texas Tech McCasland has completely changed his style of play, completely pivoting from a defende first, second, and third focus to actually being a free wheeling offensive mind in Lubbock that scores as efficiently as just about anyone. Currently the Red Raiders are 5th in the country in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency metric, something that would have been unheard of during his time at North Texas.
Of course, the element of grit has still followed McCasland. Texas Tech’s motto going into every game is “Toughest Team Wins,” and after each win they write down “Tougher Team Won.” The combination of smooth offensive execution alongside the physical and mental toughness has made for the successful season, and perhaps there was no better way of demonstrating these traits than the Arkansas game where they battled back from being down 16 with both their offensive firepower and their never-quit toughness.
Prior to the win over Arkansas the Red Raiders took on Drake, a trendy mid-major that many picked to upset them. They were able to handle Drake comfortably winning 77-64, minimizing a Drake offense that had been tremendous as of late. Texas Tech opened the Tournament against UNC Wilmington who was a trendy upset pick as well, and while they stayed close it was the Red Raiders holding on for a 82-72 win. It would be hard to say that the Red Raiders have been playing their best basketball in the NCAA Tournament, but at the same time they have shown in each game their ability to lock in and play inspired stretches of basketball and when they do that they are difficult to beat.
Leading the way for Texas Tech is New Mexico transfer JT Toppin, someone who was having a great season already before kicking it into hyperdrive in the last few weeks where he was one of the best players in the country resulting in a second team All-American selection. The 6’9”, 225 pound forward is a dynamic scorer who can catch on the wing and drive like a guard or get the ball on the low block and score with his back to the basket, and the variety of ways he can fill it up is evidenced by the 18.2 points and 9.3 rebounds per game he averaged. Down the stretch against Arkansas the Red Raiders used Toppin post isolations as a trigger to their offense and his ability to go and create advantages was the engine behind the comeback.
Adding to the forward versatility is 6’6”, 225 pound Darrion Williams, another physical forward who can face up and make plays. More of a jump shooter than Toppin, Williams can run hot and cold–something you saw against Arkansas where his regular misses were one of the reasons Texas Tech fell behind, and one of the reasons they got back in the game was when he heated back up. Finishing the game 8-26 from the field indicates just how much he is trusted, as there aren’t many players in college basketball getting up 26 attempts, even in a game that was played with 5 extra minutes.
Texas Tech’s unlikely hero against Arkansas was freshman guard Christian Anderson who had a career-high 22 points, many of which came in crunch time. After not starting much in the regular season he has become a regular starter due to an injury, and he has stepped up in a massive way as shown in the Sweet Sixteen.
The injury that led to Christian Anderson is a big one–returning senior Chance McMillian. Texas Tech’s third leading scorer, McMillian was a deadeye shooter hitting 43% of his three-point looks that opened up the floor for the forwards to go to work in the paint. McCasland has said that McMillian is “progressing” and that he is “day-to-day,” but it’s completely unknown if he’ll be available against the Gators after being out since March 13th. It is seeming unlikely, and even if he is able to play it’s unknown if he’ll have the same shooting stroke given that the injury that has kept him out is to his oblique, an important muscle in the balance required to shoot the ball.
McMillian’s injury has hurt the Red Raiders in a number of ways, starting with the shooting. Texas Tech has been an excellent three-point shooting team this year, but really all the shooting came from him (43%), Kerwin Walton (40%), and Christian Anderson (38%). With McMillian out there are really only two three-point shooters to be concerned about, as seen in the NCAA Tournament so far.
Against UNC Wilmington, Texas Tech shot 13-46 (28%).
Against Drake, Texas Tech shot 2-14 (14%).
Finally, Against Arkansas, Texas Tech shot 8-32 (25%).
It has not been a good shooting Tournament for Texas Tech whatsoever, and their issues in this area have been covering up the fact that they have been really good in a lot of other areas.
The injury to McMillian also has shaken the depth of a team that already didn’t want to go deep into the bench, as really only seven players will see the floor for the Red Raiders. Even in the 45 minute thriller against Arkansas just seven players saw action, so Texas Tech needs to be careful with their fouls in order to keep their key players on the floor.
Defensively, Texas Tech has struggled at times this year ranking just 39th in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency metric, but they have been playing a bit better as of late. One of the elements hurting Texas Tech’s defense is a lack of size in the backcourt with 5’11”, 160 pound Elijah Hawkins and 6’2”, 165 pound Christian Anderson who haven’t been able to provide the level of token ball pressure McCasland’s North Texas teams were known for. This was an issue against Arkansas as the Red Raiders were giving up drive after drive from the Razorback guards, and while there is some nice shot blocking on the back side you are always playing with fire giving up so many paint touches. Texas Tech tries to give up as few three-point attempts as possible so they will run guys off the line and funnel them into the paint, and Florida’s preparation will have to be about what they’re going to do once they get these drives.
In addition to the offensive focus of making plays in the paint after drives, Florida’s biggest concern needs to be guarding JT Toppin. Toppin is the kind of dynamic face up forward that can give Florida’s frontcourt issues, as seen at times against Maryland with Derik Queen. Queen is still a bit more brute force than Toppin who uses a bit more speed and ball handling, but Queen’s 27 points might be somewhat of a warning of what could happen if the Gators aren’t able to make Toppin uncomfortable.
This is the point of the season where all your opponents are going to be great teams playing strong basketball, and it will be a massive showdown between the Gators and Red Raiders.
Florida and Texas Tech will tip off on Saturday, March 29th at 6:09 PM ET, and it will be televised on TBS/TruTv.