Dropping a home game was not something the Florida Gators wanted to do Tuesday and with the loss dropping them to 15-2 and 2-2 in SEC play there now is some urgency to take care of business Saturday when they host the Texas Longhorns (11-5, 0-3 SEC as of Wednesday morning–but they will play Oklahoma after the publishing of this article but before taking on Florida).
The Longhorns are in the second year of the Rodney Terry era, though there is already pressure on him to get things going in the right direction. Back in the 2022-23 season Chris Beard was the head coach at Texas before being fired mid-season after being arrested and Terry, an assistant at the time, was promoted to interim coach. With an extremely talented roster that was playing well into the middle of the season Terry was able to keep things on track and the Longhorns made an Elite Eight, which led to the interim tag being removed. While Terry got the job it came with some terms in the contract that would allow for an easy out if necessary, and after a year and a half things could be trending in that direction if things don’t turn. Last season the Longhorns were 21-13 and made the NCAA Tournament so it’s not like things have been disastrous–but expectations at Texas are always going to be high.
Entering the 2024-25 season expectations were high with Texas ranking 19th in the preseason AP Poll. In the SEC preseason poll they were picked to finish 7th, one spot behind the Gators. This was due to a roster that is loaded with talent to the point that even Terry’s critics couldn’t ignore.
Arthur Kaluma had productive stints at Creighton and Kansas State, and had proven himself to be a top forward in the Big 12.
Jordan Pope didn’t win a lot of games at Oregon State but he was a massive scorer in a high-major league.
Many of you will remember Indiana State from last year as they were one of the most popular mid-major in the country. In a rare transfer portal package deal, their two best players Julian Larry and Jayson Kent went to Texas together.
Tramon Mark, formerly known as one of the top defensive guards in the country at Houston before a solid season at Arkansas, came to Texas to lead the backcourt.
Texas also retained key frontcourt pieces from the year prior and added Tre Johnson–the 6th ranked player in the class of 2024.
So far this roster loaded with talent has amounted to a season that has been awfully mediocre. Texas might sit at 11-5, though their season has been defined by an inability to knock off any team of substance. Terry scheduled one of the softest non-conference schedules in the country (353rd, according to KenPom) and missed their two quality win opportunities leaving their best win as a neutral site victory over Saint Joseph’s, a team currently 91st in KenPom.
On the other hand, Texas is yet to take a bad loss. Their two opportunities for good wins in the non-conference came against Ohio State and UConn, and while they are 0-3 in SEC play they had a very challenging schedule with losses to Texas A&M, Auburn, and Tennessee. It’s worth noting their games with Auburn and Tennessee were both within two possessions so they did play well in the losses but their lack of execution down the stretch led to their demise.
A bright spot in Texas’ season has been the play of 6’6” freshman Tre Johnson who is currently leading the Longhorns in scoring at 18.9 points per game. Johnson is a prototypical NBA athlete with great size, movement skills, and shooting and right now he seems just as likely to blow by a great defender and finish with a layup as he is to knock down a three with his 41% shooting stroke. Florida hasn’t seen a player as purely talented as Johnson so far this season and he’ll offer a difficult matchup given that he’ll often play shooting guard meaning the Gators will have to put a shorter Walter Clayton or Alijah Martin on him for long stretches.
Outside of Johnson, Texas relies a lot on one-on-one play as they isolate matchups for Arthur Kaluma or Jordan Pope to go to work. Both of these players are capable of creating shots in isolation but the reliance on this style of play can also result in Texas getting stagnant offensively. Texas almost never turns the ball over (3rd in the country in ball security) but it’s also a result of the fact they don’t move the ball all that much, and Florida will need to be aware of this and load to the ball and sit in the gaps against Texas’ drivers. Kaluma could present an interesting challenge to Florida’s frontcourt as a more compact 6’7” frame that’s quick and powerful, and the Gators will hope their length can make up for a speed deficiency.
Currently Texas is 40th in the country in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency metric, and scoring has been an issue in SEC play as their style of hunting mismatches and trying to create advantages out of isolation has not scaled up to the higher level of competition.
According to KenPom Texas is 53rd in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, though they certainly look better than that on film. Centers Kaden Shedrick (a former Florida target out of high school) and Ze’Rik Onyema are big bodied centers that know their role and thrive in it, containing pick and rolls and showcasing mobility while also having the pure size to protect the rim. Texas is at their best defensively with Shedrick on the floor though he offers little offensive upside so there are times the Longhorns will play the 6’7” Kaluma at center which certainly increases their offensive firepower but can leave them prone to allowing points on the inside.
Texas is a team whose talent is undeniable, though they are yet to have the pieces fit together. So far their ability to out-talent opponents has only resulted in wins over teams 91st or worst in the country but if that talent does start to click together they will be dangerous.
Florida’s focus will have to be on how to guard the downhill drives of the Texas initiators while also keeping Tre Johnson from getting loose from behind the arc. They’ll also need to tighten up their execution with halfcourt offense as there likely won’t be as many fast break opportunities against an athletic Longhorns team.
Florida and Texas will tip off at 4 PM ET on Saturday, January 18th and it will be televised on ESPN 2.