After earning the double bye before dispatching both Missouri and now Alabama the stage is set for Sunday’s SEC Tournament Championship game with the Gators taking on a familiar foe–a Tennessee team that they have already faced off with twice. With both teams taking a win in the series this feels like a fitting end, with the team that takes the rubber match earning the title of SEC Tournament Champion in a year where the league is considered to be as strong as any league that college basketball has ever seen.
Tennessee, the 4th seed in the SEC, had to go through a little bit more drama than the Gators did to get to this game. First of all they played a Texas team that seems to be peaking right now, and while the Longhorns did give them somewhat of a challenge the Volunteers held on for an 83-72 win. Next, the Gators saw the presumed favorite for the SEC Tournament Championship–the 1-seed Auburn Tigers. This game played right before the Gators and Crimson Tide was an incredible battle that saw both teams trade 10-point runs but ultimately it was Tennessee who tightened things up on defense and came away with a 70-65 win. With both the Gators and Volunteers set to play their third game in three days both teams aren’t going to be particularly fresh, but Tennessee certainly had to play two tighter and more emotionally charged games that could see them a bit more exhausted.
During the SEC Tournament the Volunteers have unsurprisingly been led by point guard Zakai Zeigler and wing Chaz Lanier, two players that have been their key cogs all season long. Zeigler is more of a distributor offensively who can get to the paint when needed, and he’s even more valuable on the defensive end where he is a pest guarding the ball who can take the opponent completely out of their offense. Lanier is a focal point of Tennessee’s offense and they constantly run him off baseline screens hoping to find him for open threes, something that will be at the top of Florida’s scouting report.
As previously mentioned the Gators and Volunteers have already played twice, with both games having a distinctly different feel. In the first meeting of the season the Volunteers were riding high as the number one team in the AP Poll, and the Gators humbled them quickly with a 73-43 drubbing. Tennessee couldn’t get a thing going against the Gators offensively and repeatedly went back to their baseline screening offense (known as “floppy”) and the Gators played it well, never allowing open looks. Not only did the Volunteers score only 43 points but they did it on a putrid 0.63 points per possession–their worst showing of the season. Florida’s offense wasn’t incredibly crisp but they were solid in transition, particularly with Alijah Martin who led the way with 18 points.
The second matchup of the season was nearly a complete flip of the first meeting. This time it was Florida who couldn’t get anything going offensively with the Volunteers completely busting up all of their offensive sets with Tennessee coming away with a 64-44 win. This was Florida’s worst offensive performance of the season by any way you want to evaluate it, whether by total points, metrics, or the eye test, and it shows just what Tennessee is capable of with their disruptive defensive pieces. Chaz Lanier was also able to get much more open than he was in the first matchup finishing with 19 points.
With two lopsided meetings in the regular season this sets up for a legendary rubber match. In terms of momentum, that x-factor would probably go in favor of the Gators who have been blowing teams out recently while playing some of their best basketball of the season. Tennessee has also been playing some of their better ball of the season, but they haven’t seen the same caliber of opponents in the SEC recently with much of their more challenging opponents coming earlier in the slate. For the Gators, this game will be all about executing offensively and that starts with creating space for their guards. There is no backcourt in the country that is as good defensively as Zakai Zeigler and Jahmai Mashack, two players that not only can make opponents miss, but can force turnovers or push out catches far from the rim that completely bust up what the offense is trying to do. Now, this defense usually messes up teams that are more set oriented, and luckily the Gators are much more of a flow team that doesn’t require precise positioning and execution from the guards. Florida is going to be concerned with ball security against these two talented defenders so look for them to give up the ball early and try to play more through the post players.
Size-wise, Tennessee is one of the teams that can match up with the Gators on the inside with 6’11”, 235 pound Felix Okpara and 6’10”, 225 Igor Millicic manning the paint, but Florida’s frontcourt will have a speed advantage. We saw Thomas Haugh and Alex Condon have some nice moments driving these bigger bodies from the perimeter and that could be a nice initiator for Florida’s offense, particularly if they want to keep the ball out of the hands of their guards a bit more.
Defensively, Florida can play this game conservatively. Tennessee’s roster is built around defense as their first, second, and third priorities, and that means they don’t have a lot of weapons that can hurt you. That means there is no reason to be aggressive going for steals or selling out to protect driving lanes (as they did against Alabama, which WAS a successful strategy). If the Gators just play conservative, sound defense that doesn’t give up wide open shots–Tennessee isn’t the type of team that can make difficult ones and put up big runs. The Gators will need to be prepared to guard a lot of off-ball screening, particularly for Chaz Lanier, as well as the counters that come from those actions. After setting the screens the big men for Tennessee will often look to get deep seals on the inside for post ups, and that becomes the secondary option if the shooter isn’t wide open for a clean look.
This is setting up for a tremendous finish to the SEC season, and you can expect two teams that are ready to leave everything on the floor. Florida is thought to be the final 1-seed in the NCAA Tournament but there is an outside chance that Tennessee could steal that position with a win, so both teams will be heavily motivated to come out victorious.
Florida and Tennessee will tip off Sunday, March 16th at 1 PM ET, and it will be televised on ESPN.