Florida Versus Missouri Preview

It’s still early in the season with a long ways to go but the Gators haven’t got off to the start in SEC play they hoped for and their game on Saturday, January 20th against Missouri is now starting to look like a must-win if the Gators want to stay in the NCAA Tournament picture. Florida is currently 11-6 on the season and 1-3 in SEC play and they may be getting just what the doctor ordered with a game against Missouri who is currently 8-9 on the season and 0-4 in league play placing them dead last in the conference.

Only four games into the season it’s pretty early for standings watch but the Gators’ poor start has made it notable. At 1-3 the Gators are in tenth place in the league and while quality of competition means a lot when you’re looking at league records this early Florida has played two teams in the projected NCAA Tournament field and two teams outside of it. A 2-2 split would have been seen as adequate, 3-1 would have been spectacular, and as we’ve seen–1-3 is somewhat of a disappointment. 

Luckily for the Gators they’re taking on a team that has been even more disappointing. The Tigers are in year two of the Dennis Gates era and they came in with some expectations after a successful first season. Picked to finish well outside the NCAA Tournament picture the Tigers were able to win enough games to secure a 7-seed and win their opening game against Utah State. In the eyes of many they were the luckiest team in college basketball (they were ranked 57th in KenPom–suggesting they were nowhere near good enough to be at-large team) but they still were able to accomplish something in a transition year and with multiple returners it seemed like the Tigers could make another step. However, that has not been the case. The Tigers suffered a devastating quad-4 loss to Jackson State in non-conference play while also struggling to get by a Loyola Maryland team 78-70 that the Gators beat 93-73. Near the end of non-conference play Missouri lost consecutively to Kansas, Seton Hall, and Illinois, and while none of these are bad losses these games weren’t particularly competitive which was a sign that SEC play ahead might be rough. That has been the case so far with the Tigers losing to Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, and Alabama. 

Last season when Missouri made the NCAA Tournament they were 9th in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency and all the way down at 180th in adjusted defensive efficiency. This year has been somewhat of a similar story with the Tigers once again struggling to defend down at 152nd in defensive efficiency, though the offense hasn’t been nearly good enough to overcome it as they’re ranked only 75th offensively. Many of Missouri’s defensive issues come down to the roster with the Tigers prioritizing offense over defense and it has left them with undersized, not particularly athletic players who haven’t been able to slow down SEC competition. Nick Honor and Sean East are a backcourt that can make shots and pick teams apart offensively but both are poor perimeter defenders and the frontcourt of Noah Carter and Connor Vanover (a 7’5” center you may remember from his time at Arkansas) can be exposed in space. Missouri has been giving up so many straight line drives that forward Aidan Shaw has been putting up miraculous shot blocking numbers (14th in the country in block rate) and while you could look at it as a positive sign that they have someone getting things done defensively, when you watch the film it’s more of a product of the fact that he has so many opportunities to rotate over and contest a shot because of how much penetration the Tigers allow.

Florida has had a habit of overwhelming poor defensive teams this year and that will have to be the case against Missouri for the Gators to be successful. The one-two offensive punch of Walter Clayton and Zyon Pullin has been Florida’s best offensive option and Missouri’s backcourt does not match up with them well whatsoever so they’ll have to have a big night. 

Another area Missouri is extremely vulnerable is the defensive glass. It’s not only perimeter defense that is hurt by not having athletes or length as the Tigers have also struggled to compete on the glass ranking 327th in the country in defensive rebounding percentage. Throughout the season you can look at Florida’s biggest offensive rebounding games and see that they came against teams that struggled on the defensive glass and with Missouri being one of the worst rebounding teams the Gators have seen–you can probably expect a lot of extra possessions from Micah Handlogten, Alex Condon, Tyrese Samuel, and any Gators that want to be active when shots go up. 

Offensively Sean East has been the leader for Missouri as a player who can knock down shots or find his way to the rim in isolation and out of pick and rolls. Currently he’s shooting 49% from three but not on a huge number of attempts–so the Gators will have to be more aware of his driving ability and try to keep him out of the paint. He’s currently averaging 16.5 points and 3.8 assists per game and slowing him down would play a huge role in cooling the Tigers’ offense. 

One of the biggest questions for Florida is who they’re going to start. The starting lineup has been largely untouched recently and the starters have also come on to begin the second half but that stopped in Florida’s blowout loss to Tennessee. Micah Handlogten and Will Richard were taken out for Riley Kugel and Alex Condon, and you have to wonder if that change will carry over to the start of the Missouri game. Will Richard has been in a cold spell offensively and Handlogten has struggled with the physicality of the SEC game, and Kugel and Condon both bring more offensive punch without a huge drop off defensively. Obviously things have not gone great for the Gators to begin the SEC season so they could be looking for some changes to get back on the right track.

Florida is yet to win a home game this season, and with this game at Missouri they’ll need to change that.

Florida and Missouri will tip off at 8 PM ET on January 20th and it will be televised on ESPNU. With the ongoing weather challenges around the country–keep an eye on this one to see if there are any changes to tip time.