Riding high after gutting out a road win at Arkansas the Florida Gators (15-1, 2-1 SEC) will have a great opportunity to chalk another one up in the win category when they face off against the Missouri Tigers (13-3, 2-1 SEC) back in Gainesville.
As is typically the case with Missouri under head coach Dennis Gates the overall record does not always paint an accurate picture of how the season is going. When it comes to non-conference scheduling Gates’ strategy is to essentially play an easy schedule in order to build up confidence with his players and give them opportunities to improve and work through mistakes before league play, and that after what happened last year–you knew he was going to make things even easier. Last season Missouri started the season 7-2 playing against soft competition before going into the meat of their non-conference schedule–Kansas, Seton Hall, and Illinois. They lost those three games, and then got a win against lowly Central Arkansas (340th in KenPom) before entering SEC play.
In SEC play the Tigers went 0-18 before getting bounced in the first round of the SEC Tournament, finishing the year 8-24, with their only win after December 3rd coming against Central Arkansas.
That non-conference schedule was ranked as the 233rd most difficult in the country, and this year Gates was going to leave no doubt.
This year Gates made things even easier, scheduling the 356th most difficult non-conference schedule in the country–nearly the easiest of anyone in division 1. They took losses to Memphis and Illinois but they did land a gigantic victory knocking off rival Kansas at home, and while it appears Kansas isn’t anywhere near the team people expected them to be preseason it still stands as a massive resume win. Did the non-conference scheduling work? Well, they’re currently 2-1 in SEC play–so they’ve already got a whole lot more wins this year than they did last.
Missouri did get a very favorable start to the SEC season–though they did start on the road against Auburn which is nearly an automatic loss they then got back to back home games against LSU and Vanderbilt who are expected to finish at the bottom of the league, and full credit to Missouri–they took care of business and got a pair of wins.
Things are clearly looking up for Missouri after a season that was nothing short of a nightmare, but after two easier games things will get much more difficult when they take on the Gators.
As is tradition in the transfer portal age–here is a quick rundown on some of the new pieces that came to Missouri in the offseason:
Mark Mitchell is a big-bodied 6’9” forward who was a two-year starter at Duke. While he hasn’t yet played to the level people thought he would out of college–being a two-year starter at Duke is no easy task.
Tony Perkins is a veteran point guard with great size at 6’4” who played a ton of minutes at Iowa and he has been a big part of stabilizing what was a chaotic offense a year ago.
Marques Warrick is a shifty combo guard who put up massive production at Northern Kentucky before transfering up, and was Gates’ gamble on a mid-major gunner who could hopefully bring some juice to the offense.
Adding to the frontcourt depth is 6’8” Jacob Crews who put up massive numbers at UT Martin, but is struggling a bit to adjust to life in the SEC.
One of the big stories surrounding Missouri basketball last year was that in the midst of a winless SEC season they were taking a ton of commitments from high school recruits–something many teams aren’t doing in the transfer portal era. It was thought that Missouri was going to follow up a horrible season by being extremely young–and that could be rolling the dice and landing on another very bad season. However, through the portal Gates has got quality pieces who have largely panned out and it has made for a solid team–though perhaps one that doesn’t seem to have a particularly high ceiling. However, even a middle-lower of the pack finish in the SEC would equal an NCAA Tournament berth and if that was achieved it would be a remarkable bounce back from their 2023-24 season.
Leading the Tigers in scoring is Duke transfer Mark Mitchell, though he scores just 13.5 points per game which speaks to how balanced the Missouri offense is. A muscular 6’9”, 230 beast in the frontcourt Mitchell largely plays his minutes at the four where he can physically overwhelm his matchup. While not incredibly explosive Mitchell has nice functional athleticism that sees him move his large frame smoothly and he can get a lot of points around the rim with his strength and footwork.
Returner Tamar Bates sits just behind Mitchell at 12.8 points per game which he accomplishes largely by knocking down catch and shoot jumpers or attacking closeouts. A reliable shooter from deep, he also has incredible touch from the free throw line where he is shooting 94% after shooting 93% a year ago.
Currently Missouri’s offense is 28th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency and they do it with ball movement, cutting, and shooters that can punish the defense any time they are left open. The Tigers are currently 43rd in the country in three-point percentage and that a lot of that is due to the high quality of shots they create by moving the ball and constantly shifting the defense. While the team’s unselfishness is certainly a strength, it is also brought on due to some level of necessity. Missouri doesn’t have a star offensive player who can go and create something one on one when needed, so if you can get the Tigers into late shot clock situations they can struggle to score.
Defensively is where the Tigers can struggle, and it starts with the fact they don’t have guards that are particularly good defensively and when a team doesn’t have great defenders at the guard position it can be easy for the opponent to run offense. There isn’t anything glaringly wrong with the way that Missouri defends, but they don’t have any elite stoppers and they choose to play somewhat aggressively still which can get them in rotation and scrambled meaning they give up open threes.
A big area of concern for Missouri will be their defensive rebounding as they currently sit at 256th nationally in that category. The Tigers aren’t all that undersized, but their poor rebounding is more caused by their defense that gets them into scrambled situations where they aren’t in position to box out when a shot goes up. Given how Florida has feasted on the offensive glass about, well, just about everyone this season Missouri could be in trouble and keeping the Gators off the glass will be at the top of their priority list.
Florida and Missouri will tip off Tuesday, January 14th at 9 PM ET (please note the late tip time!) and it will be televised on ESPN U.